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Republicans are poised to pick up seats in the Senate as congressional campaigns head into the home stretch, but Democrats are strongly defending a half-dozen states that will determine whether the GOP wrests control of the chamber or settles for another session of a divided Congress.

Analysts say Republicans will pick up vacant seats in West Virginia and South Dakota long held by Democrats and should pick up a vacant seat in Montana, putting them halfway toward the six needed to flip control of the Senate.

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Despite a highly touted class of challengers, though, Republicans have struggled in a number of other conservative states, leaving the fate of the Senate to be fought out over the next two months in North Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska and Arkansas, as well as in several progressive states.

Republicans remain slight favorites to net the six seats they need to win the Senate, said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginias Center for Politics.

The centers latest forecast shows Republican gains of four to eight seats. That said, there are a ton of really close races according to the polls: more than half a dozen, Mr. Kondik said.

Some of those close races are for Republican-held seats. Democratic wins in Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas could doom GOP hopes.

The race could turn on a variety of issues, including the economy, health care, immigration and the growing threat of Islamic extremism in the Middle East.

More than anything else, however, this election will be a referendum on President Obama, who has become politically toxic in many states, analysts say.

He is a huge drag, said Stuart Rothenberg, of the Rothenberg Political Report. The reason why the Democrats are in trouble in states ranging from Arkansas to Iowa to Colorado is the president.

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Republican Senate candidates struggling to open leads despite Obama unpopularity