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Des Moines, Iowa Jill Paxton would appear to be the Republicans dream. A young suburban mother, Ms. Paxton grew up in a Republican household, has voted against President Obama in both presidential elections, and would like to see the Republicans take back the Senate a very real possibility on Nov. 4.

Shes perfectly positioned to help make it happen. Shes an Iowa voter, and a Republican win here could tip control of the Senate to the GOP. All Paxton has to do is vote for the woman running for Senate, Republican Joni Ernst.

But she might not do it.

The fact is, Paxton doesnt agree with Ms. Ernst on several issues that really matter to her, including education and reproductive rights. She calls Ernst old-fashioned.

For Democrats facing an energized Republican base and an election map that heavily favors Republicans, voters like Paxton represent a potential lifeline. Republicans need to win six Senate seats to take control of the chamber; two appear in the bag, and of 10 to 12 others that polls show are still in play, eight are in red states that went for Republican Mitt Romney in the last presidential election.

But Paxton offers the hope that, if Democrats can motivate women to vote, they might be able to stop Republicans short of their Senate goal. Indeed, the biggest thing standing in the way of Ernst becoming the first woman to represent Iowa in Congress might be Iowas women voters, who strongly favor her Democratic opponent, US Rep. Bruce Braley, according to polls.

Given a generic ballot, the countrys Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage among likely women voters, while Republicans enjoy a nine-point gap among men, according to a September poll by the Pew Research Center.

In presidential years, this slight difference can work to Democrats advantage, because more women than men vote. In midterm years like this one, the number of women voters drops and Democrats have to scramble to get them to the polls.

There are other pitfalls for Democrats, such as a big drop in the approval rating of Mr. Obama among women only 44 percent compared with 55 percent in 2012, according to a Washington Post/ABC News survey. But in tossup states, such as Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, and Arkansas, Democrats are counting on women voters to make the difference.

Democrats believe that if they can turn out enough women they can overcome whatever advantages Republicans have because of the political environment, says Jennifer Duffy of the independent Cook Political Report.

Originally posted here:
Joni Ernst faces big problem in Iowa Senate race: women voters