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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is heading to Grand Rapids on Friday, making a play for voters in a traditionally Republican county that has become more blue in recent elections.

President Donald Trump won Kent County in 2016 when he became the first Republican to flip Michigan in nearly three decades. Four years later, its among the top targets for Democrats emboldened by their success in recent elections.

Going to West Michigan, and Kent County in particular, is their attempt to put their foot on Trumps throat, said John Sellek, a veteran GOP strategist. If they really tamp down Trumps ability to hold on there and pick up votes, it becomes very hard ... for Trump to win Michigan.

Trump flipped Michigan by 10,704 votes, the narrowest margin of any state in 2016 and the closest result in Michigans history. He earned the fewest Kent County votes of any Republican presidential candidate since 1996.

The city of Grand Rapids leans Democrat like most urban communities, but the surrounding county is undergoing a political shift that could decide the 2020 election in Michigan.

The population of Kent County rapidly grew in the last decade while becoming more diverse, younger and better educated, all factors that generally correlate with more Democratic votes.

Kent County voters went on to support Democrats in Senate and gubernatorial races two years after Trump took office. Democrats picked up two seats on the county board of commissioners in 2018, and state Sen. Winnie Brinks, D-Grand Rapids, flipped a formerly Republican district covering suburban communities.

Kent County is going south for the GOP in a hurry, broadly speaking, said Adrian Hemond, a Democratic consultant and CEO of Grassroots Midwest. There are still some rural and ex-urban parts of the county there that are pretty ruby red, but the places where people live are getting more and more Democratic by the year.

If the results in suburban Kent County look like the 2018 results, then the president has lost Michigan.

David Dulio, professor of political science at Oakland University, said Kent County is undergoing similar demographic changes that transformed Oakland County, another battleground in Southeast Michigan.

Kent County grew by 9% from 2010-19, twice the rate of Oakland over the same period. The county has a smaller percentage of college-educated and non-white residents, but thats changing.

Sellek pointed to East Grand Rapids and Kentwood to show how Republican votes are being squeezed from two sides."

In East Grand Rapids, the population is largely white and affluent, with 79% of residents having a bachelors degree or higher education. Kentwood is significantly more racially diverse than the rest of the county, partly due to a growing immigrant population.

Stark said theres been a surge in political activism and grassroots organizing, which paid off for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2018 and will help candidates up and down the ticket in 2020.

When you look past the obvious things about West Michigan is supposedly conservative and religious, in the last five years that is less true than it has been in the past, said Kent County Democratic Party Chair Gary Stark. We feel that the demographics and the politics here are all moving left in favor of the Democrats.

Stark said the county party has distributed literature to 15,000 homes. Organizers arent personally canvassing voters, but have been active in phone banks and dropping off campaign materials on voters' doorsteps.

Sellek managed Mitt Romneys 2012 presidential campaign in Michigan and now runs Harbor Strategic Public Affairs. He also compared Kent and Oakland counties, but said the change in West Michigan has been slower.

Its still a bastion of Republican voters, Sellek said. The GOP still has a very strong position there, it has a long tradition and history of voting Republican. The local Republican parties, especially in Kent and Ottawa are very well organized and well funded.

Republicans are unified around Michigan 3rd District candidate Peter Meijer, who is vying to replace U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, I-Cascade Township. Amash left the Republican Party in part because of his disapproval of Trump, and isnt seeking reelection.

One of the biggest questions for the area, and Michigan generally, is which candidate can pick up voters who rejected Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Nearly 7% of the vote in Kent County went to third-party candidates in 2016. Only 1.25% of voters in the county supported a third-party candidate four years earlier.

Holy smokes, Dulio said when he looked up the figures during an interview. Thats pretty significant."

Sellek said the 2016 vote was a combination of anti-Trump and anti-Clinton sentiment, but the presidents rough personality probably doesnt endear him to conservative voters who embody the West Michigan nice personality.

Whats appealing about Joe Biden to a lot of people is just his basic decency, that he comes across as a likable guy that actually has the ability to care about or understand what youre going through, Biden said. When he showed that in the debate those were his best moments.

Linda Trout, a 67-year-old retired teacher, considers herself an independent, but would vote for anyone besides Donald Trump. She said Biden signs are all over neighborhoods in East Grand Rapids, where she used to teach.

I mean hes a horrifying human being, Trout said of Trump. I am totally in Joe Bidens camp. Theres just no contest on character.

Dulio said Bidens Grand Rapids visit is likely focused on energizing Democrats in the city and surrounding suburbs.

I think its smart, because Democrats in West Michigan didnt see the candidate until the final weekend last time, and that was a mistake," Dulio said.

Clinton held two campaign visits in West Michigan four years ago. She held an August rally in Grand Rapids and another rally at Grand Valley State University in suburban Grand Rapids the night before the 2016 election.

Trump also held a Grand Rapids rally on the eve of the 2016 election. He returned to the city last year for his first Michigan campaign rally in 2019.

Biden sent his wife Jill Biden to Grand Rapids on Sept. 15, but it wasnt a very prominent campaign stop. She toured a farm on the outskirts of the city and didnt invite the public to attend.

Trumps campaign has held a series of well-attended rallies across the state. Dulio said its only a matter of time before Trump returns to West Michigan.

Meanwhile, Stark said Democrats are eager to hear from Biden with only a few weeks left until the election.

The fact that hes coming here right after the debates is a really good sign," Stark said. Theyre paying attention to Michigan they know how important it is, they know how important this part of the state is. People learned some things in 2016. Democrats are not going to make the same mistake."

READ MORE ON MLIVE:

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