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Last August, as F.B.I. agents hauled boxes of classified documents out of Mar-a-Lago, I surveyed a few Republican and MAGA operatives about how this latest legal woe might impact Donald Trumps political future. For a brief moment, the former presidents opponents entertained the notion that surely this would be the scandal that broke his hold over the Republican Party. Wasnt Trump actively endangering national security by leaving sensitive nuclear secrets in his desk?

But Trumps allies were almost giddy about the optics, correctly recognizing the F.B.I. raid as an opportunity to galvanize the base, raise more money, and temporarily paralyze the 2024 field. Nobody is worried, one G.O.P. insider told me at the time, relaying the sentiment around Mar-a-Lago. And worry they did not: Days after an underwhelming midterm performance in which Trumps highest-profile endorsees crashed and burned, and Ron DeSantis cruised to a resounding re-election victory, Trump announced that he was running for president. Eight months later, Trump has only gained strength in G.O.P. polls, with DeSantis and Nikki Haley, his two closest rivals, trailing by double digits. (Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, and other would-be challengers barely register.)

Over the past few days, of course, its been dj vu all over again as Trump rages on Truth Social about his looming indictment and arrest over his 2016 hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels. So far, theres been no arrestin fact, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg told the grand jury to stay home on Wednesday, and to remain on standbybut that has not stopped Trump from whipping the media into a frenzy, and urging his supporters to protest in the streets, Jan. 6 style, if he is arraigned. As the Times reports, Trump has been fixated on the optics of a potential perp walk, unlikely as that is to happen, and the ensuing spectacle. His campaign has already raised more than $1.5 million on the news.

I asked a number of Republicans close to the top candidates to predict how an indictment would affect Trumps campaign, and whether it would boost his standing in the G.O.P. presidential primary. The overwhelming consensus was succinctly captured by Alex Bruesewitz, C.E.O. of the MAGA-focused consulting firm X Strategies: Trump wins.

This assessment doesnt come only from MAGA-blinded Trump allies, either: Republicans across the spectrum, from DeSantis fans to Never Trumpers, echoed Bruesewitzs conclusion. The indictments only strengthen Trumps grip on [the party], Reed Galen, the co-founder of the anti-MAGA Lincoln Project, told me. The base is all he needs, but the electeds and Fox [viewers] are already behind him. Sure, rallying the base around the former presidents infidelity might create a liability down the road, especially with women, moderates, and independents who are fatigued or turned off by the behavior. But winning a general election is a problem for the future, as several consultants noted, and Trump has more than a year to worry about it.

Republican leaders arent outwardly hand-wringing over the electability issue either. In the short term, its good politics calling for an investigation into Bragg. And as one G.O.P. insider observed, the prospect of the partys potential standard-bearer standing trial isnt consuming much headspaceespecially when it distracts the electorate from debates over Social Security or the looming debt ceiling fight. Folks arent paying attention [to the arrest], honestly, this insider told me.

Still, Trumps escalating legal woeshe is also facing dual federal investigations from the D.O.J., plus a state investigation in Georgiaappears to have created an opening for his rivals. While nearly every potential 24 candidate has made noises about prosecutorial overreach, its notable that DeSantis chose this week to begin publicly testing various counter-punches at Trump. In a preview of his interview with Fox Nations Piers Morgan (the full video will air on Thursday), DeSantis takes shots at Trumps character and leadership style, boasts that hed run the government with no daily drama, suggests that he would have fired Dr. Fauci, and extols the Founding Fathers for putting the Republic over [their] own personal interestas opposed to people who would, for instance, pay hush money to porn stars.

In reality, theres a little less here than meets the eye, despite Morgans bombastic attempt to hype the interview in the New York Post. A person familiar with the full interview described the blistering attack as mostly restrained responses to Morgans provocations, not direct assaults on his potential rival. Its not like he kicked a door down to start attacking Trump, this person said. He answered questions asked of himand showed that the bullying tactics dont work on him. Hes his own man. The loose-but-guarded style of DeSantiss interview with Morgan is likely indicative of how he will approach Trump in a presidential face-offavoiding direct contrasts unless asked, rather than initiating fights, and brushing off Trumps insults with a little bit of eye-rolling, self-deprecating humor. (I dont know how to spell [DeSanctimonious], said DeSantis, a Yale and Harvard grad. I dont really know what it means, but I kinda like it, its long, its got a lot of vowels.)

Ignoring Trump is a strategy DeSantis has used to great effect over the past two years as a way to raise his profile without alienating the base. There is also a hope, in some corners of Florida, that it will essentially elevate DeSantis above Trumps mudslinging. And on some level, it seems to be workingfew people in the mainstream conservative media have entertained Trumps lurid, totally unsubstantiated insinuations that DeSantis groomed underage girls or is secretly gay. But when I ran this theory by a well-placed G.O.P. comms officiala DeSantis fan, mind youhe fully disagreed with the governors approach, calling it consultant stuff that sends all the wrong signals to a base craving authenticity and strength.

Its one thing to say Im not gonna get in the mud with the former president, said the comms official, who advises Republican campaigns. [But] if DeSantis thinks this is gonna get any easier, hes wrong. Its gonna get a lot harder. And he has to understand what hes up against. Hes up against a pitbull. And you cannot handle a pitbull by acting like its not there. Its just gonna bite you and maim you.

The question, as always in presidential politics, comes down to the game theory of optimizing your message to win a primary or to win a general election. In his Fox Nation interview, DeSantis presented himself as a strong challenger to Biden, not Trump. But winning over more hardcore primary voters comes first, chronologically speaking, and the possibility of Trump becoming a MAGA martyr has clearly thrown a wrench into the mixespecially if there are calls for DeSantis to use his powers as governor to interfere with an extradition request from New York. (If I were governor of Florida, I would not allow any Floridian to be hauled before a Soros-backed prosecutor in a blue city over politics, Matt Gaetz told NewsNation on Wednesday.) Legally, DeSantis cannot stop a valid extradition request, but he might be able to slow it down. And if Jan. 6 has taught us anything, its that the U.S. Criminal Code and Supreme Court precedent have never stopped the MAGA tendency for wishful constitutional thinkingor calls for retribution against people who dont fulfill their legal fantasies.

At the moment, DeSantis has exhibited a not-my-problem approach to the Trump-Bragg ordeal, telling reporters on Monday that his office was not involved in any way, while shrugging that he personally didnt know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. For a general election, this might play well to a Trump-fatigued electorate, but in the eyes of the G.O.P. comms official, DeSantis has already made a critical mistake that could tank his standing with the MAGA basenot just in this election cycle, but in 2028 and beyond.

This is a former president getting politically targeted by an obviously politicized judicial system, he observed. Its just wrong on its face, and we wanted him to stand up for that principle. Instead, you saw his personal dynamic and rivalry with the former president cloud his response and that hurt him massively. His prediction: the next round of Republican presidential polling will see DeSantis drop by double digits. It was all baked into the cake with the audience, with the base voters, and he just whiffed on it. He just misread it.

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Is the Republican Primary Already Over? - Puck