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The wrinkle, of course, is that those same conditions allowed Trump to first defeat a field of more than a dozen challengers and win the nomination. And Trump is no longer the cipher he was in 2015: He has a record as a president, two impeachments, and is still facing legal threats as well as a congressional investigation.

He was more of a blank slate back then. As in any candidate, you pick up good and bad as youre serving. And so hes going to have that dimension that he didnt have before, said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who is seeking a spot in leadership next year. 2024 is a raw opportunity for the presidency to switch parties, so theres gonna be a lot of fighting for that.

As the Jan. 6 select committee divulges new details about Trumps actions during the Capitol attack, including staying quiet for hours as he watched the violence unfold with his vice president and GOP lawmakers in the building, Republicans are facing real risks. Many believe a Trump presidential announcement before November will weigh down their partys efforts to sweepingly reclaim the House majority and potentially get back the Senate.

For that reason, Trump allies have sought to impress on him not to announce before the midterms, fearing he will distract and deter voters by making the race about himself rather than a referendum on the Biden administration, according to two House Republicans who requested anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. And Republican leaders are making plain that Trump pulling focus to himself over the next three months is not going to play well in Congress.

Theres a verse in the Bible that says, sufficient unto the day as the evil thereof. So Im not going to worry about what could happen in the future, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnells leadership team and his potential successor as the GOP leader. I hope he waits until after the midterms to make a decision.

A spokesperson for Trump did not return a request for comment.

Out of 10 senior House Republicans interviewed for this story, including nine who are in leadership or aspiring for leadership roles, only three were ready to say they would definitely throw their support behind Trump in a presidential primary. That sentiment extends across the Capitol, where none of the expected top five elected Senate Republican leaders said they would move to quickly back Trump.

At the same time, none of those leaders said theyd oppose Trump either or work to back another candidate.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the conference secretary, and Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), the chair of the Republican Study Committee, both said they will back Trump as soon as he gets in. Banks even thinks an early Trump announcement could help draw more supporters to the polls this fall.

If President Trump runs, he has my support, said Banks, whose position is selected by RSC members rather than the full conference. And he helps us draw out Trump voters which helps us win in November in the midterm Hes more popular than hes ever been before.

Not everyone in the GOP agrees with Cornyn that a Trump decision would be better after November. Other prominent Republicans on the Hill, addressing their approach to the former president on condition of anonymity, described some Trump allies and advisers as trying to convince him to get ahead of potential 2024 competitors like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by launching his campaign before the midterms.

Still other Republicans privately say, out of an expected field of talented GOP candidates, that only Trump has enough baggage to possibly lose to President Joe Biden, whose approval poll numbers are lingering in the mid-to-upper 30s. And that conclusion is causing some worries among the rank-and-file.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who has previously said he wont support Trump if he runs again, publicly told reporters that he hopes former Vice President Mike Pence runs for president after he met with the Republican Study Committee this week.

Above Stefanik in House GOP leadership, its all about the midterms. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy whos had his own challenging moments with Trump and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) argued that their focus is on November. Asked about endorsing Trump above all others, McCarthy chuckled at the question, then said Im focused on this election.

Lets get through November. Im sure therell be a lot of talk about 2024 right after that, echoed Scalise.

Others, like Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), wouldnt engage with the question until Trump makes his bid official, despite the myriad reports suggesting Trump may soon make his move.

I have not heard anything about him, Ferguson said.

Reminded that Trump is openly entertaining the idea in interviews, Ferguson, who is making an early bid for the majority whip role next year, replied: Lets see what happens.

Some senior Republicans indicated that the political landscape could be vastly different by the time the race comes around: Trumps influence may have waned further. He may be kneecapped by a series of blown midterm endorsements, a record hes catered to more carefully in recent months as he tries to present his win-loss record in a positive light.

No matter when or whether the former president might launch a third run, theres also a small but crucial contingent of Republicans who suspect he may pass up a campaign. Those skeptics point to the money going into his super PAC that would face different regulations if he runs, his age, his health and the possibility that he risks further tarnishing his reputation with another loss.

All of which leaves Banks and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who is also supporting an early Trump campaign, on a lonely island with regard to Trumps timing.

McConnell predicted a crowded field that will unfold later, and Senate GOP Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said anybody that wants to run for office in 24 ought to have [the midterms] as their principal focus and if they want to announce.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the No. 3 GOP leader, said his hands will be tied because there are eight senators who are thinking about running; Im the chairman of the conference.

And Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), said that because shes from an early state, its up to our voters to decide.

Ive heard a lot of people that really want to look at some fresh blood. Im sure well have some of the same folks engaging in the opportunity. Its an open opportunity for everyone, said Ernst, the No. 5 leader who is likely to ascend next year.

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GOP leaders won't get in the way of Trump 2024 - POLITICO