Mediaboss Marketing

WASHINGTON Democrats running for the U.S. House in Texas major swing districts hold a sizable cash advantage over their Republican opponents heading into the second half of the year, underscoring yet again the startling interest in the state as a general election battleground.

In the eight districts most often predicted to be competitive in November, the Democratic candidates collectively stored away more than $13.9 million at the end of June, compared with their GOP opponents $7 million, according to campaign finance reports filed on Wednesday.

The cash on hand tally is, by no means, a flawless oracle of electoral success, particularly since Election Day is a long four months away.

It nevertheless spotlights a dramatic transformation in Texas suburban swaths, which were so reliably Republican just a few years ago that Democrats sometimes struggled in those districts to field candidates, much less ones who could raise millions of dollars.

At this point in 2018, the Democratic candidates for those seats sported war chests totaling $4.3 million about half that of their GOP counterparts. And in the summer of 2016, only one Democrat in those races held any real money, while the rest struggled to bank even a few thousand dollars.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the partys House campaign arm, hailed the standings as proof that the party is on offense.

Democrats are running competitive campaigns across Texas because their message of quality, affordable health care, protecting Texans with preexisting conditions and lowering drug costs is resonating with voters, DCCC spokesman Avery Jaffe said.

But Republicans can also point to areas of promise, even after losing some deep-pocketed incumbents in those districts because of retirements.

Two years after many Republican lawmakers were caught flat-footed by a Democratic surge, some conservatives are stockpiling campaign cash to brace for the challenge. Austin Rep. Michael McCaul, for instance, holds in reserve about triple what he had at this point in 2018.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOPs campaign arm, also brushed aside the Democrats flush financials.

Support for socialist policies like the oil-and-gas killing Green New Deal and socialized medicine may go over well with liberal donors, but theyre toxic to Texas voters, NRCC spokesman Bob Salera said, calling the Democratic slate of candidates unelectable.

The eight consensus battleground districts for the U.S. House span the Lone Star State, clustering around the metropolitan centers of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.

Two sit in North Texas: One is the Dallas-based district represented by Rep. Colin Allred, a freshman Democrat who two years ago flipped a longtime GOP seat. The other is the mid-cities seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell.

Save for a massive border district thats long been Texas only true swing seat, the octet was utterly uncompetitive just a few years ago.

Then Beto ORourkes Senate campaign in 2018 helped drive Democratic turnout, accelerating demographic shifts already underway in the Texas suburbia. Seven of those suddenly not-so-sleepy seats were decided by 5 points or less. Allreds upset win came by 6.5 points.

Now comes 2020s high-dollar hauls, which have been collected despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic complicating traditional fundraising activity.

The rapid transition has been jarring for many Texas politicos. But doubly so for the likes of Jan McDowell, who struggled to raise money as the Democratic nominee against Marchant the last two cycles, including in 2018 when she came within three points of winning.

Unbelievable? Yes. Frustrating? Yes. I can think of a few other descriptors, too, said McDowell, who ran again this year but didnt advance to the Democratic runoff ultimately won by former school board member Candace Valenzuela.

McDowell recalled how she was considered a nut case when she decided to mount a challenge in 2016. She found that she was eventually able to persuade people that the district could be competitive. But she didnt relish fundraising, and the dollars never arrived in any large amounts.

It wouldve made a huge difference, she said, noting that perception is everything.

These days, Allred and Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, another freshman Democrat, can raise money with the added advantage of incumbency. Other Democratic congressional candidates have also found substantial fundraising success, thanks in part to an influx of online donations.

The result is cash-on-hand totals once unthinkable for Democrats running in these sort of districts. Just ask former Ennis Rep. Joe Barton, a Republican who retired last cycle. No fundraising slouch in his day, he couldnt contain his shock at the size of some Democrats war chests.

Fletchers $3.5 million cash on hand to compete against Republican Wesley Hunt? Good Lord, he said.

Gina Ortiz Jones $3 million for her border district battle against a yet-to-be-determined Republican? Jiminy Cricket, he said.

Wendy Davis $2.9 million to take on Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin? Wow, he said.

That tells me that the DCCC is really targeting Texas, Barton said with a laugh, while adding that he still remains bullish that Texas Republicans, including some of his former colleagues, will be more than able to hold their own at the congressional level in November.

He added: The Democrats are drinking their own Kool-Aid.

National groups are indeed paying Texas unusual attention this cycle, though that focus is hardly limited to the Democratic column. Republicans have sought to ensure that Texas remains a solid firewall, with some GOP officials cautioning that complacency is not an option.

In the eight battlegrounds, the Republicans current collective cash on hand total is lower than it was at this point in 2018. But that partly reflects that some well-funded GOP lawmakers, such as Marchant and San Antonio Rep. Will Hurd, opted to retire.

Barton, who remains close to the delegation, noted that vulnerable incumbents did one of two things: They either got in gear and said, Were going to be prepared. Or they quit.

Among those who got in gear was McCaul, an Austin Republican whos sitting on $1.3 million in his campaign account. His camp made a point to note how much better that balance was than in 2018. His challenger, Mike Siegel, has $165,000 after finishing a tough primary runoff.

Roy, while lagging Davis, sports a sizable $1.7 million cash on hand.

Round Rock Rep. John Carters $922,000 in reserves nearly doubled his total from this point last cycle. The Republicans opponent, Donna Imam, has $42,000 cash on hand after emerging from a Democratic primary runoff.

In some other districts being monitored by political handicappers beyond the consensus eight Texas Republicans are sitting on mounds of cash. Take Houston Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a freshman Republican who currently holds a staggering $4 million in his campaign coffers.

Whats clear is that candidates all over are tracking the dollar signs.

In the border seat being vacated by Hurd, Republicans Tony Gonzales and Raul Reyes are locked in a runoff thats still too close to call for the right to take on Jones. Gonzales has $391,000 in his war chest, while Reyes claims only $24,000. Gonzales team has cited that difference as vital.

Gonzales is the only Republican candidate that can hold #tx23, Gonzales spokesman Matt Mackowiak recently wrote on Twitter, pointing to Jones vast campaign resources.

In North Texas, Allred has $3 million cash on hand, while his Republican opponent, Genevieve Collins holds $1.1 million. The race for Marchants old seat features Republican Beth Van Duyne with $483,000 and Valenzuela, the Democrat, with $111,000.

Some Republicans are practically welcoming the Democratic dollars. Sen. John Cornyn, whos up for reelection, responded to reports that Democrat Joe Bidens White House campaign might spend in Texas by saying hed like to see Ds squander their resources in a losing effort here.

A bulging political pocketbook does not guarantee the necessary votes, either. Just this week in Texas primary runoffs, multiple candidates in both parties lost their races despite carrying cash advantages in some cases, by huge sums over their opponents.

But the stakes are high.

Its expensive to run campaigns in the Texas metropolitan areas where most of the battleground House districts sit, in large part due to the high cost of TV advertising. So a Democratic surge would almost necessitate a GOP response, diverting resources from elsewhere in the U.S.

It takes it in some of these districts to have a play at all, SMU political scientist Rita Kirk said, referring to healthy campaign reserves.

See the original post here:
Democrats hold sizable cash-on-hand edge over Republicans in Texas battleground U.S. House races - The Dallas Morning News