Mediaboss Marketing

When Republican Rick Scott ran for governor in 2010, he carried 52 of Florida's 67 counties, yet he barely beat Democrat Alex Sink.

How could that happen?

If you know your country, it's simple: A lot more people in suburbs, small cities and towns vote Republican and a lot more people in big cities vote Democrat.

Those numbers from 2010 are more revealing if you drill a little deeper.

First, Republicans are more likely to vote in nonpresidential election years like 2014 and 2010.

Republicans make up 35 percent of all voters in Florida, Democrats 39 percent. The other 26 percent are mostly registered with no party affiliation. But of those who actually voted in 2010, Republicans made up 44 percent, Democrats 40 percent and the rest 16 percent.

If a similar turnout happens in November, Scott will enjoy four more years in the Governor's Mansion.

Within Florida, some areas are bright red, such as Pensacola, Panama City, Fort Myers and Daytona Beach. Others are deep blue, like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Orlando. And others are purple, like the state as a whole: St. Petersburg, Tampa and Jacksonville.

The best predictor of what might happen between Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist is the 2010 election. No two elections are alike, but here's what happened four years ago:

Voter turnout was higher in more Republican counties than it was in Democratic counties. Statewide turnout was 48.7 percent, but it was higher than that in 41 of the 52 counties Scott won, compared with eight of the 15 counties Sink won.

More:
Bousquet column: It's all about turnout in Florida governor's race