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As director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, I sent this survey to roughly 2,600 GOP chairs, one for every county in the country; 108 Republican chairs responded, a bit lower than the number who responded in June, but still enough to do a robust analysis. This is the fourth survey Ive conducted for this project, and the shifts in sentiment are starting to become notable.

The first question I have asked is simply whether the county chairs have committed to supporting a candidate, and if so, whom that might be. When I launched my first survey in February, Trump was looking vulnerable and was roughly tied with DeSantis among those who had committed to a candidate. Then Trump started consolidating more support, largely after the wave of indictments began, and DeSantis began to dip.

The most recent survey, conducted throughout August with responses coming in both before and after the first GOP debate show a slight softening of Trumps support, but still with a substantial lead. As in June, roughly twice as many county party chairs are now committed to Trump (27 percent) than DeSantis (13 percent), and no other candidates had the support of more than 4 percent of chairs.

As Dena Gooch, chair of the Union County, Georgia GOP, told me, Donald Trump demonstrated his ability to govern without influence from the Deep State. He needs to do it again!

Yet roughly half (47 percent) of local Republican leaders, even those who expect Trump to become their nominee, remain uncommitted. Though Trump has been ahead by massive margins in some polls of GOP voters, this survey suggests a key group of grassroots leaders has yet to fully embrace the former president.

The second way Ive gauged candidate support is to ask chairs which candidates they are considering, and they can name as many as they want. DeSantis has been at the top of this measure across all four surveys, but his trendline has been bad dropping steadily from 73 percent in February to 57 percent in August.

Trump has been in second place in all four surveys, and his numbers held steady at 52 percent in August. Scott once again took third place, with 45 percent of chairs saying they were considering him. Haley came in next with 35 percent.

By far the largest improvement was for Ramaswamy, who jumped from being considered by 15 percent of chairs in June to 32 percent in August. The bottom tier was held by Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, notably the only two explicitly anti-Trump candidates throughout this time series.

Finally, I asked the county chairs whom they do not want to see become their partys nominee. Coming in first by this measure in August, as with all previous months, was Christie; upwards of 55 percent of chairs have ruled him out in all four waves. Not surprisingly, Christie was followed closely by Hutchinson.

Interestingly enough, then came Trump and Mike Pence, with 44 percent ruling out Trump in August and 43 percent ruling out his former vice president.

Taking these two measures the percent of chairs considering a candidate and the percent of chairs who dont want a candidate in combination, we can get some sense of how perceptions about them are changing.

Trump has the singular position of high positives and high negatives, which is consistent with his legacy throughout his time in politics. He has many devoted fans and detractors. Then there are candidates like Christie, Pence and Hutchinson who have few supporters and a great many opponents. Their path to the nomination is extremely fraught.

But perhaps whats most significant and a potential warning sign for Trump is the fact that several candidates are being considered by many local party leaders but, at least so far, dont have many detractors. This group includes DeSantis, Scott and, most recently, Haley.

Indeed, by these measures, Haley had the best performance between June and August, jumping from 31 to 35 percent in terms of chairs who are considering her, and dropping from 32 to 21 percent in terms of opposition. (Notably, while this survey did include the Aug. 23rd GOP debate in its time range, her performance in that was not the chief cause of her improvement in this measure; 37 percent of chairs said they were considering her in the August wave prior to the debate.)

DuWayne Wilson, chair of the Republican Party of Daniels County, Montana, captured the sentiments about Haley as being about both her and Trump: She seems to be level-headed. I am so opposed to Trump that ANYONE else is an option.

Trump, by contrast, lost some chairs who were considering him while increasing the percent who are actively opposed to his bid.

Until Haley or DeSantis or another candidate can turn a chairs general openness toward them into a firm commitment of support, its not going to be enough to defeat Trump. Still, it is notable how many chairs remain hesitant to come off the fence for a candidate and how many are still open to a Trump alternative.

Originally posted here:
A New Survey Shows Key Republicans Are Open to a Trump ... - POLITICO