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Rand Paul will finally announce his presidential campaign on Tuesday in Louisville, but avid fans were treated to a peek at his freshened platform a day early. A new campaign video touts the Kentucky Senator as the one man who can defeat the Washington machine and unleash the American dream. The words linger atop a silhouette of the candidate as supporters chant President Paul.

Forgive Paul for going generic with his slogan; there are only so many active verbs and available bromides left in our shared campaign storage unit. But the choice is emblematic of a larger branding decision that could help shape the fate of his presidential bid. Paul rose through the ranks by promising to change the Republican Party, but on the cusp of his campaign he has tweaked his own positions to fit within the GOP.

Ever since his 2013 filibuster against Barack Obamas drone policy vaulted him from Tea Party curiosity to the forefront of the GOP, Paul has boasted a clearer rationale for a presidential bid than any of his rivals. He has been telling audiences that a party staring down the barrel of demographic change must become bigger, broader and more inclusive to win back the White House. His campaign is predicated on the promise that he can attract a younger, more diverse coalition of voters through issues ranging from a more restrained foreign policy to criminal-justice reforms to reining in domestic spying.

The pitch has made Paul a powerful player in the GOP presidential field. He is running at or near the top of the polls, with a stocked bank account and a political network wired through key early states. Instead of downplaying expectations, Paul prefers to stoke the hype. Nobody is running better against Hillary Clinton than myself, he told Fox News.

The path to the nomination is virtually set up for us, says Doug Wead, a friend and adviser to Paul who notes the senators organizational strength and ideological appeal in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Its within the realm of possibility that we could have three sequential wins out of the gate.

But even as he claims frontrunner status, theres a question of whether the Kentucky senator has missed his ideological moment. Pauls rise in the polls over the past two years came as the Republican Party warmed to the merits of Pauls non-interventionist foreign policy after more than a decade of war. In one June 2014 survey, 53% of Republicans said the U.S. should mind its own business abroad, up from just 22% in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Yet in recent months, as the U.S. ramped up nuclear negotiations that would ease sanctions on Iran and the Islamic State released a series of ghastly beheading videos, the GOP has rediscovered its hawkish impulses. A Quinnipiac poll last month found that 73% of Republicans now support sending ground troops to battle ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Paul has reacted to the Republican regression on foreign policy with an apparent evolution of his own. Lately hes shelved his signature non-interventionism in favor of more conventionally muscular rhetoric. When it comes to federal spending, he told the Conservative Political Action Conference in February, for me, the priority is always national defense. A few weeks later, he introduced an amendment calling for a $190 billion boost to the defense budgeta head-snapping reversal from his 2011 proposal to cut defense spending and reduce war funding from $159 billion to zero.

Paul supporters say the shift is a function of changing conditions in the Middle East, not a strategic repositioning. (His campaign spokesman did not return a request for comment for this story.) In any event, it may do little to assuage GOP hawks, who remain deeply leery of Paul. Meanwhile, it may may complicate matters on another front. To win the primary contest, Paul has to pull off a delicate balancing act: expand his political coalition without alienating the demanding libertarian supporters inherited from his father. Ron Pauls presidential campaign was derided by the political class as more farce than force, but to fans he was a beacon of clarity. His son risks irking the libertarian faithful by softening his stances to suit the political climate.

Foreign policy isnt the only realm where Paul has modulated his message. He has long argued the federal government should let states decide the question of gay marriage. The Republican Party, he told CNN, can have people on both sides of the issue. Now he is telling socially conservative audiences that gay marriage is a moral crisis which offends myself and a lot of other people.

This kind of talk may help Paul with Evangelicals in Iowa. But it wont win over the young voters or independents he often brags about bringing into the GOP fold. Nor is there much proof that the bridge-building hes done with communities of color will translate into votes. And on issues where Pauls positions once stood out, such as criminal-justice reform or drug policy, some of his Republican competitors have since caught up.

Original post:
A Changed Rand Paul Vows to Change the Republican Party