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The Death of Quantum Supremacy and Birth of Quantum Advantage

A new way of thinking about quantum computing sets more realistic goals for this technology.

Quantum computing has been under development for decades and it is a potential game changer in several areas, including networking, security, and extremely large data set analysis. You probably know that generative AI is disrupting markets ranging from advertising and search to computer interfaces (including automotive). Similarly, quantum computing will also be massively disruptive and could be applied to make generative AI massively more powerful.

The State of Quantum Computing

Currently, quantum computing is only truly relevant to those working on advanced computer development and research, in advanced encryption, or with extremely advanced high-speed networking, and who need to work with data sets that existing supercomputers struggle with. If you want to model the worlds weather accurately, for instance, the size of the related data set would bring even the most powerful supercomputer to its knees. A quantum computer is designed to take on such tasks thanks to its ability to massively -- and near instantly -- multitask.

Encryption is a major area of interest because the security industry believes that a quantum computer could decrypt any existing encrypted file almost instantly. IBM, which has been a leader in quantum hardware development, has released quantum-resistant cryptography algorithms to hopefully protect data until quantum encryption is developed.

In networking, we are talking about quantum pairs, which act in concert across unlimited distances and could be used for faster-than-light communications. We are just beginning to explore the potential for this use of quantum technology and while this could have huge implications for space exploration, military and transport (remote controlled systems), and telepresence (surgery and other areas where latency might be problematic), use is still over a decade away.

Applying quantum computing to large scale data set analysis will change the nature of supercomputers. However, viable quantum computers with enough power to function are still off in the future, with estimates for viability decades out. However, a recent change in how we look at quantum computers will bring this date closer because these computers better leverage existing computing technology and put quantum computing on a par with other technologies.

The Recurring Technology Introduction Problem

Whenever new technology comes out, there is a tendency to overestimate what it is capable of and to suggest it will displace all that came before it. If that were always the case, we wouldnt still have fax machines and traditional snail mail. They would have been replaced by email decades ago. The concept of quantum supremacy was derived from that same misconception: a belief that quantum computing would displace all other types of computing. Not only is that unlikely to happen soon (we still dont have a viable, business-ready quantum computer), it may never happen.

The quantum processor is a tool, like the CPU, GPU, and NPU (neural processing unit), and although it may be able to perform tasks better than older technologies, using a quantum computer for everyday work would be like putting a jet engine in a car. In other words, it would be a waste of a technology that is better suited for extremely large data set analysis, certain types of extremely secure communications, and specific workloads for which older technologies arent as well suited.

That is the concept of quantum advantage: putting the technology where it will enhance, not replace, what came before.

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The Death of Quantum Supremacy and Birth of Quantum Advantage ... - TDWI