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Earlier this month comedian Bill Maher delivered a biting commentary on self-styled progressives, mocking the recurrent theme on the far left that things have never been worse. On privileged university campuses, Maher noted, progressive students cant see that (their) dorm in 2021 is better than the South before the Civil War. Among progressive elites, woe unto the brave soul who points out that there are progressive talking points that simply do not withstand serious scrutiny. In such quarters, Maher says, what you say doesnt have to make sense, or jibe with the facts, or ever be challenged.

Mahers point was illustrated by the most recent deluge of thousands of Hamas rockets fired from Gaza at Israeli civilian centers. As always, Hamas attacks on Israel produce the confident if bizarre progressive orthodoxy that rocket attacks blanketing Israeli communities are somewhere between no big deal and perfectly fine, whereas Israels efforts to protect its civilians by stopping them constitute war crimes.

With the 2022 midterm elections already in view, some Democrats willing to risk eternal damnation as Not Sufficiently Progressive worry that slavishly following the Partys left may result in losing control of Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024. It isnt hard to see why. Republicans have the wind at their back, with historical precedent strongly suggesting that they will pick up seats in both houses of Congress. They need only a small handful of pick-ups in the House of Representatives to seize control there, and a net gain of only a single seat to regain control of the Senate. As for 2024, the bravado about Bidens 7.1 million popular vote margin obscures this reality: had only 6,000 Biden voters in Arizona, 6,000 in Georgia and 11,000 in Wisconsin voted instead for Donald Trump, he would be five months into his second term.

A recent analysis of the 2020 election by three Democratic groups contained some serious warnings for Democrats. One was that the Republican line that Democrats were socialists and favored eliminating law enforcement may drive Rachel Maddow-watchers berserk, but they resonated, including among core Democratic constituencies. Republican attempts to brand Democrats as radicals worked, the authors concluded. The data firm Catalist calculated that Bidens percentage share of Latino voters decreased by 8% relative to Hillary Clintons 2016 share, his share of Black voters fell 3% and his share of Asian American Pacific Islander voters slipped 1%. In many key Congressional districts, Democratic candidates trailed Biden. Some districts where law and order or socialism was a drumbeat also a saw a higher share of Latino/AAPI/Black supporters who supported the GOP, the Democratic groups report found.

These warnings may be dismissed by some Democrats who delude themselves that Cambridge, Mass., is representative of the country, and that the nation is just waiting to embrace the Democratic Socialists of America.

To be sure, the Republican Party is a hot mess, dominated by insurrectionists, charlatans and phonies. A new Economist/YouGov poll published on the very day President Biden was meeting with Russias Poisoner-in-Chief reported that the Russian president is more popular among Republicans than the American president. Thirty percent of Republicans believe that it is likely that Trump will be reinstated as president within six months, and 70% of them believe the whacked-out hogwash that Trump won the 2020 election. Simply put, the GOP is barking mad, and the left believes that that ought to be enough to keep control of Congress and the presidency.

It wont be. Over-the-top rhetoric and the disconnected, even haughty assumptions by progressive Democrats that Americans believe what they believe run the risk of leaving them, and Democrats generally, sorely disappointed two Novembers from now.

Jeff Robbins is a Boston lawyer and former U.S. delegate to the United Nations Human Rights Commission.

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Robbins: Progressives bet the farm that America sees things their way - Boston Herald