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More than any other state, Pennsylvania has a good shot at changing the balance of power in the U.S. Senate after the 2022 midterm election.

Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomeys retirement is leaving a rare power vacuum in one of the countrys swingiest swing states, and Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor, who is tracking key Senate races around the country, says that has led to a genuinely unpredictable outcome.

There are only two states on the map that Republicans hold that Democrats won in the presidential race, and those are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she said. Of those races, Pennsylvania, I think especially given that its an open seat, is really the best opportunity that Democrats have to flip a seat.

The dynamics could change as the primary and general elections draw closer, Taylor said. But right now, she says Democrats appear to be in a slightly stronger position because Republicans are still struggling to chart a post-Trump political course.

Establishment Republicans, Taylor notes, are lining up behind Jeff Bartos, while those aligned with Trump favor Sean Parnell, whom she calls a riskier choice.

The intra-party split isnt quite as pronounced on the Democratic side of the aisle, she noted, but its still present. Its unclear if Democratic primary voters will consolidate behind a progressive candidate, like John Fetterman or Malcolm Kenyatta, or a more centrist contender like Conor Lamb or Val Arkoosh.

National mood could make personality and policy differences moot, as midterms often bring a backlash against whichever party holds the presidency.

It will matter, Taylor said, where President Bidens numbers are a year from now.

If the national environment is bad [for Democrats], having a candidate who can be problematic, like Sean Parnell, may not matter, she said.

Scroll down to read about the candidates for Pennsylvanias U.S. Senate seat. This list will be updated as new information surfaces.

Democratic candidates:

Kimberly Paynter

Malcolm Kenyatta, 31Current occupation: State representativePolitical history: Community organizer, legislative stafferHometown: North Philadelphia

Kenyatta, a two-term state representative from North Philly, is running a progressive campaign rooted largely in social justice. At 31, he would be the youngest member of the U.S. Senate.

The first openly gay Black man to serve in Pennsylvanias legislature, Kenyatta says his platform is rooted in his own experience growing up poor in Philly. He wants to reduce or eliminate student loan debt and create free higher education options, raise the federal minimum wage, and impose a wealth tax on people worth $50 million or more, among other things. Hes also the only major Senate candidate who has said hed support a moratorium on fracking.

Between his graduation from Temple University and his 2018 election to the legislature, Kenyatta worked behind the scenes in city politics and got involved in community activism.

He is a longtime ally of President Joe Biden. While many of his fellow young, urban Pennsylvania progressives supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the 2020 race, Kenyatta threw his hat in for Biden early. He became a prominent surrogate for the former vice president, getting significant airtime on cable news throughout the race, and eventually being named a rising star in the party during the 2020 DNC, alongside fellow candidate Conor Lamb.

John Fetterman, 52Current occupation: Lieutenant governorPolitical history: Braddock mayor, ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2016Hometown:Braddock

Fetterman, former mayor of the small steel town of Braddock, and current Pennsylvania lieutenant governor, has a phrase he has repeated throughout his candidacy for U.S. Senate: the union way of life is sacred.

Fetterman, a progressive who wants universal healthcare, legal weed, and an overhauled criminal justice system, is taking a stab at creating the kind of Democratic coalition long thought to be mostly extinct in Pennsylvania: where urban liberals and union workers can find a home under one umbrella.

Hes primarily trying to achieve that through energy policy. Fetterman, who lives across the street from Braddocks steel mill, has called the tension between ending reliance on fossil fuels and maintaining union energy jobs a false choice. He says he supports transitioning away from coal and natural gas, but also says doing it too quickly is unacceptable. A spokesman recently told WHYY that we cant just abandon these people, and tell them to go learn how to code.

Fetterman has easily led the early Democratic field in both fundraising and spending, and has more than $3 million on hand over $1 million more than his closest Democratic opponent.

Emma Lee

Val Arkoosh, 55Current occupation: Chair of Montgomery County CommissionersPolitical history: Ran unsuccessfully for Congress (PA-13, now PA-02) in 2014Hometown: Springfield Township

Arkoosh, a former practicing physician who now serves as the chair of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners, is the only woman running for the Senate seat who has previously held elected office.

She has centered health care in her Senate campaign, noting that as a doctor, she has seen radically different health outcomes based on income, race, and gender. She was a prominent Affordable Care Act advocate during an unsuccessful 2014 run for Congress, and says she still thinks adjusting that program is the best bet for making health care more affordable.

The county Arkoosh currently leads is Pennsylvanias second wealthiest. It has shifted sharply left over the last decade, moving from a bastion of well-off Republicans, to one of similarly comfortable Democrats.

Many of the accomplishments she lists reflect standard Democratic policy positions raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour for county workers, and giving those workers six weeks of paid parental leave while others are more specific to her constituents, like preserving farmland, restoring Montcos AAA bond rating, and maintaining relatively low property taxes.

Conor Lamb, 37Current occupation: Congressman (PA-17)Political history: Assistant U.S. AttorneyHometown: Mt. Lebanon

Lamb, a two-term US. representative from Allegheny County, is the most forthrightly moderate member of Pennsylvanias Democratic Senate field.

The former Marine and federal prosecutor has balked at big-spending proposals like single-payer health care while in Congress, and differed with the progressive wing of his party on sweeping messaging on defunding police and banning fracking, which he said alienated more conservative Democrats and independents.

Lamb is from a tricky district for Democrats, and has walked a fine political line since he flipped the seat blue in a 2018 special election. He retained it just eight months later in the general election, after being drawn into a new district and being forced to run against an incumbent Republican. He was reelected last year in a contest with a Trump-sympathetic opponent.

Lamb was a relatively late entrant to the U.S. Senate race, but has since confirmed himself to be a formidable fundraiser. After moving his congressional war chest over to the Senate campaign, he has more than $1.7 million on hand, second only to Fetterman among Democrats.

Democrats likely to join the race:

Kimberly Paynter

Sharif Street, 46Current occupation: State senator, Pennsylvania Democratic Party vice-chairPolitical history: Lawyer, Chief Democratic advisor on Senate Housing and Urban Development CommitteeHometown: North Philadelphia

A member of the Pa. Senate since 2016, Street has perhaps the most conventional political background of any candidate. His father, John Street, was mayor of Philly from 2000 to 2008, and a longtime City Council member before that.

Street grew up in the world of Philadelphia politics. Though he worked for nearly two decades as a lawyer before entering public life, he says his history factors heavily into his approach to his potential Senate bid. In April, when he filed a statement of candidacy and launched an exploratory committee, he told WHYY that hes uniquely well-connected on the ground in his city, Pennsylvanias biggest Democratic stronghold.

Hes from the same area as Malcolm Kenyatta, he noted, calling his potential opponent a great guy, but adding, When you talk to people in North Philadelphia about us, I dont think theres much debate.

Like much of the Democratic field, Street is progressive. Hes cited his key issues as being addressing gun violence, investing in education and career and technical training, and legalizing recreational marijuana.

Republican candidates:

Jeff Bartos

Jeff Bartos, 48Current occupation: Real estate developerPolitical history: 2018 lieutenant governor candidate, longtime GOP fundraiserHometown: Lower Merion

Bartos didnt formally enter electoral politics until 2018, when he joined former state Senator Scott Wagners 2018 gubernatorial bid, but hes no stranger to it.

A longtime fixture in the Pennsylvania real estate scene former jobs include a stint as a Toll Brothers division president Bartos has a long history as a GOP committeeperson and fundraiser. After his bid for lieutenant governor, during which he came off as generally affable and pragmatic beside the bombastic Wagner, Bartos was named chair of the state Republican Partys finance committee.

Thus far, Bartos has attempted to split the difference between appealing to the wing of his party eager to still ally itself with Donald Trump, and the more moderate wing attempting to distance itself from the former president.

In a video formally announcing his campaign, Bartos centered his appreciation for small businesses and talked about the nonprofit he co-founded in the midst of the pandemic, the Pennsylvania 30 Day Fund, which raises money to extend forgivable grants to businesses. But he also threw a bone to the former president, noting that he thinks Trump represented someone listening to millions of Pennsylvanians who felt like no one was fighting for them.

Bartos is not, however, Trumps chosen candidate. The endorsement went to Sean Parnell, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2020 with Trumps blessing. Much of Bartoss recent campaign missives have been attacks on Parnell, highlighting now-expunged protection from abuse orders (PFAs) Parnells wife sought against him in 2017 and 2018.

Lucy Perkins

Sean Parnell, 39Current occupation: Author, Fox News contributorPolitical history: Ran unsuccessfully for Congress (PA-17) in 2020Hometown: Ohio Township

Parnell is the candidate in the GOP field who has managed to ally himself most closely with Trump and his voter base.

A decorated former Army Ranger, who earned a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star for valor while serving in Afghanistan, Parnell has been best-known in recent years for his frequent, consistently Trump-friendly commentary on Fox News. That reputation grew as he launched his 2020 campaign for Congress in one of Pennsylvanias purplest districts, where he lost narrowly to moderate Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.

Parnells loss didnt cool Trumps support. He got a major boost when the former president endorsed him early this September, claiming baselessly that Parnell got robbed in his congressional run in the Crime of the Century the 2020 Presidential Election Scam. Its a claim Parnell has also echoed, albeit less explicitly, in calling for a forensic audit of the 2020 election in Pa.

Parnell and competitor Jeff Bartos have repeatedly traded barbs over the PFAs Parnells wife sought in the years before his congressional bid. Bartos said they make Parnell unelectable, while Parnell said Bartoss statements have been provably false and a scheme to score political points.

Parnells campaign told City and State PA that the PFAs were indeed issued, but Parnells wife later withdrew one, and a judge dismissed the second.

Kathy Barnette

Kathy Barnette, 49Current occupation: Political commentatorPolitical history: Ran unsuccessfully for Congress (PA-04) in 2020Hometown: Huntingdon Valley

Barnette, a veteran of the U.S. Army reserves who worked in finance before entering politics, is best-known for her crusade to find evidence of fraud in the 2020 election.

After losing badly and unsurprisingly to incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean in a congressional race in deeply blue Montgomery County, Barnette became convinced something had been amiss in the race, and in the election at large, and coordinated with several prominent election fraud evangelists in her efforts to prove those theories.

Theres no evidence of any widespread or significant fraud in the 2020 election. But Barnettes post-2020 activities have made her prominent in right-wing, Trump-sympathetic circles, and she has become a frequent commentator on far-right shows.

She has also become a fairly formidable fundraiser. As of candidates last filing deadline, at the end of June, Barnette had more than $476,000 on hand, third to Bartos and Parnell in the GOP field. Her total receipts have been even greater than Parnells.

Carla Sands

Carla Sands, 60Current occupation: CEO of investment firm Vintage CapitalPolitical history: Ambassador to Denmark under Trump, served on Trumps Economic Advisory CouncilHometown: Camp Hill, though she very recently lived in Los Angeles

Sands put two things front and center in a video announcing her candidacy: her Christian values and servants heart, and her work and personal relationship with Trump. Her message to Pennsylvania voters is that our home she moved back recently, after selling her Bel-Air, Los Angeles, house for $19.5 million in 2019 is overtaxed and overregulated, and burdened with dwindling jobs, failing schools, and rising crime.

Sands worked as a chiropractor in Pennsylvania, before relocating to California with her late husband. After his death in 2015, she took over his investment company. She supported the former president in 2016 and was a key Trump fundraiser in California, and her support eventually turned into a spot on his Economic Advisory Council, and then an ambassadorship.

Shes expected to bring her own substantial financial resources to the race, though hadnt yet reported campaign finance data as of candidates last filing deadline.

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Progressive, Centrist, Trumper? These 2022 Candidates Could Change The Balance Of Power In The U.S. Senate - 90.5 WESA