Mediaboss Marketing

Is Mayor Pete the candidate to beat in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination? Its too early to tell, because the race is still in flux. But South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegSanders, Buttigieg surge in New Hampshire as Biden, Warren slip: poll Buttigieg calls The Root writer whose column on his past comments on minorities and education went viral Buttigieg surges to second place behind Biden as Warren sinks: poll MORE has risen to the top of thepolls in the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, that elect delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee.

Buttigieg is one of three Democratic candidates who entered the presidential race with little national name recognition but made a strong first impression. The other two are Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisSaagar Enjeti laments use of identity politics in 2020 Democratic race Buttigieg surges to second place behind Biden as Warren sinks: poll Bloomberg ties with Harris, Klobuchar in new national poll MORE (D-Calif.) and former Rep. Beto ORourke (D-Texas). ORourke dropped out after a sizzling start. Harris made a big splash in the first Democratic debate with a blistering attack on the then-Democratic frontrunner, Joe BidenJoe BidenSanders, Buttigieg surge in New Hampshire as Biden, Warren slip: poll State Dept. official describes frantic effort to save recalled Ukraineambassador Trump denies sending Giuliani to Ukraine on his behalf MORE, but her campaign has sputtered since then.

How did Buttigieg become a big player in the Democratic race while ORourke failed and Harris continues to struggle?

First, Mayor Pete got great early reviews from the great mentioners in the invisible primary that unfolds in the Acela corridor well before the candidates meet real live Democratic primary voters.

The Washington Post once called him the most interesting mayor you never heard of. Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaSaagar Enjeti laments use of identity politics in 2020 Democratic race It's the aggressive progressives vs. the pragmatic moderates Corporation that holds migrant children backs out of plans to hold holiday party at Trump golf club MORE once included Buttigieg among four Democrats who represented the future of the Democratic Party.

Typical of the buzz was a tweet from Joe ScarboroughCharles (Joe) Joseph ScarboroughIt's the aggressive progressives vs. the pragmatic moderates Scarborough: Trump is either 'an agent of Russia' or 'a useful idiot' Saagar Enjeti: Republicans lost Kentucky by failing to appeal to working class MORE reacting to Buttigiegs appearance on Morning Joe. Mika and I have been overwhelmed by the reaction @PeteButtigieg got after being on the show. The only other time in 12 years that we heard from as many people about a guest was after @BarackObama appeared on Morning Joe.

Buttigieg also has a great story to tell.

Hes the un-Trump. Hes young and smart, and he served with distinction in a war zone.

Buttigieg received degrees from Harvard and from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. He served in Naval Intelligence for seven months in Afghanistan, and he received a Joint Services Commendation Medal for his counter-terrorismduty in a combat zone. He was elected to the first of his two terms as mayor of South Bend when he was only 29. He still holds his rank as a lieutenant in the Navy Reserve.

And by the way, hesgay and married. He is the first openly gay candidate to run for the Democratic presidential nomination, and he would become the first openly gay president of the United States.

Plus, hes the kind of outsider who thrives in an environment where Americans still distrust and even hate Washington D.C.

The three candidates leading the national polls former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSanders, Buttigieg surge in New Hampshire as Biden, Warren slip: poll Saagar Enjeti laments use of identity politics in 2020 Democratic race Why America needed Donald Trump MORE (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenSanders, Buttigieg surge in New Hampshire as Biden, Warren slip: poll Overnight Defense: Senators challenge Trump on military pardons | State Department to investigate if US weapons ended up in wrong hands in Yemen | Dems release final impeachment transcripts Saagar Enjeti laments use of identity politics in 2020 Democratic race MORE (D-Mass.) have all served as United States senators and are all in their 70s.

Mayor Pete is only 37; Biden had already served in Congress for nine years by the time the mayor was born in 1982. Together Biden and Sanders have done 64 years of hard time in Washington. Buttigieg served in Afghanistan but is unbloodied by gladiatorial combat in The Swamp.

For some Democrats, the decades of congressional know-how that Biden and Sanders have is a welcome antidote to Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump at rally vows to supporters no name change for 'Thanksgiving' Trump says he will designate Mexican drug cartels as terror organizations State Dept. official describes frantic effort to save recalled Ukraineambassador MOREs lack of political experience. But to many Americans, long service in Washington is still the kiss of death.

In the most recent Democratic debate. Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharButtigieg surges to second place behind Biden as Warren sinks: poll Senate roundtable showcases importance and needs of women entrepreneurs Bloomberg ties with Harris, Klobuchar in new national poll MORE (D-Minn.) attacked Buttigieg for lacking the national experience to be an effective president. His comeback was Washington experience is not the only experience that matters. Theres more than 100 years of experience on this stage, and where are we now as a country?

Well played, Mayor Pete.

The Real Clear Poll averages have Buttigieg in first place in Iowa and New Hampshire, but still stuck in single digits nationally. Can Mayor Pete repeat his success and project that support onto a national playing field?

To become a big player nationally, Buttigieg must demonstrate that he can secure the support of Latino and African American Democrats. Mayor Pete is doing well in New Hampshire and Iowa, where there are relatively few black and brown voters. But he has very little support in the next two contests in Nevada and South Carolina, where there are large numbers of Latino and African American voters. The next wave of states, on Super Tuesday, boast large populations of non-white Democrats.

Buttigieg's opponents have tried to portray him as #MayoPete, the white bread candidate. If the label sticks, Buttigieg will have problems as he spreads his wings nationally. Anywhere from 35 percent to 40 percent of Democratic primary voters or caucus participants nationally will be black or brown.

Nationally, Buttigiegs future is also dependent on the state of Bidens campaign and the impact former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael Rubens BloombergDeval Patrick beefs up campaign staff Buttigieg surges to second place behind Biden as Warren sinks: poll Bloomberg ties with Harris, Klobuchar in new national poll MORE and his money have on the campaign.

When all is said and done, the race will boil down to two candidates.

One of the finalists, either Warren or Sanders, will emerge as the champion of the aggressive progressives.

The other finalist will represent the pragmatic moderates in the party. Biden and Buttigieg are battling to be the pragmatists standard bearer. In the recent Democratic debate, Buttigieg went out of his way to court independents and even Republicans.

Bidens support has diminished since he formally entered the race. If Bidens candidacy stabilizes, Mayor Pete will hit a roadblock. If the former vice presidents fortunes continue to decline, Buttigieg will inherit some of his support.

Bloomberg is a late entry. The billionaire businessman has just started a two-week $37-billion national media buy that will make or break him in his quest to be the great moderate hope in the sweepstakes to stop Trump.

There have been five nationally televised Democratic debates, and theres less than three months before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. But surprisingly few Democrats have made a hard and fast decision about a nominee.

Will Buttigieg break out and gain support beyond Iowa and New Hampshire? Will Bloombergs big bucks shuffle the deck? Theres still time for lots of twists and turns in the campaign until the people's choice finally emerges.

BradBannonis a Democratic pollster and CEO ofBannonCommunications Research. He is also the host of the radio podcast Deadline D.C. With BradBannon, which airs on the Progressive Voices Network. Follow him on Twitter@BradBannon.

Read the original post:
It's the aggressive progressives vs. the pragmatic moderates | TheHill - The Hill