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Ukraine misses gas payment. How will Putin respond?

Ukraine again missed a payment deadline late Monday on the natural gas it buys from Russia. Ukraine's debt to Russia over natural gas has led to supply cutoffs before, but there are other ways to resolve a long-standing dispute.

Another past-due gas bill is ratcheting up tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

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Ukraine missed a deadline late Monday to make its monthly natural gas payment to Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas company, which Kiev already owes a reported$2.2 billion for fuel for heating and electricity. Monday's blown deadline further strains relations with its primary gas supplier, and echoes past gas disputes in which Russia shut off supplies to Ukraine.

That could happen again, analysts say, but there's hope that the two sides might come to a more peaceful solution to Ukraine's gas debts. Once Western financial aid starts flowing into Kiev's coffers, it can begin to pay off what it already owes Gazprom. As for future debts, it could challenge Gazprom's recent price hikes in an arbitration court a case analysts say Kiev could win.

Still, Europe isn't taking any chances with a supplier that has a history of closing the spigot over unpaid bills. European Union officialshave organized an emergency "gas coordination group," Reuters reported Tuesday, with Ukraine's energy minister and industry leaders. The aim is to determine how to supply Ukraine and others in Europe with gas by tapping storage or reversing pipelines in case Russia cuts off its supply.

The likelihood of that happening is 50/50, according to Dmytro Naumenko, an energy analyst at the Kiev-basedInstitute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

"[A gas cutoff] may be used by Russia to escalate the political conflict with Ukraine," Mr. Naumenko writes via e-mail. "But in spring-summer season it's not a very efficient tool of pressure and thus will have limited impact on Ukraine."

A more likely outcome is that the two will negotiate a new price or will settle the dispute in an arbitration court. Ukraine's energy minister, Yuri Prodan, offered that possibility before a cabinet meeting Saturday.

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Ukraine misses gas payment. How will Putin respond?

Ukraine misses gas payment. How will Putin respond? (+video)

Ukraine again missed a payment deadline late Monday on the natural gas it buys from Russia. Ukraine's debt to Russia over natural gas has led to supply cutoffs before, but there are other ways to resolve a long-standing dispute.

Another past-due gas bill is ratcheting up tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Subscribe Today to the Monitor

Click Here for your FREE 30 DAYS of The Christian Science Monitor Weekly Digital Edition

Ukraine missed a deadline late Monday to make its monthly natural gas payment to Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas company, which Kiev already owes a reported$2.2 billion for fuel for heating and electricity. Monday's blown deadline further strains relations with its primary gas supplier, and echoes past gas disputes in which Russia shut off supplies to Ukraine.

That could happen again, analysts say, but there's hope that the two sides might come to a more peaceful solution to Ukraine's gas debts. Once Western financial aid starts flowing into Kiev's coffers, it can begin to pay off what it already owes Gazprom. As for future debts, it could challenge Gazprom's recent price hikes in an arbitration court a case analysts say Kiev could win.

Still, Europe isn't taking any chances with a supplier that has a history of closing the spigot over unpaid bills. European Union officialshave organized an emergency "gas coordination group," Reuters reported Tuesday, with Ukraine's energy minister and industry leaders. The aim is to determine how to supply Ukraine and others in Europe with gas by tapping storage or reversing pipelines in case Russia cuts off its supply.

The likelihood of that happening is 50/50, according to Dmytro Naumenko, an energy analyst at the Kiev-basedInstitute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

"[A gas cutoff] may be used by Russia to escalate the political conflict with Ukraine," Mr. Naumenko writes via e-mail. "But in spring-summer season it's not a very efficient tool of pressure and thus will have limited impact on Ukraine."

A more likely outcome is that the two will negotiate a new price or will settle the dispute in an arbitration court. Ukraine's energy minister, Yuri Prodan, offered that possibility before a cabinet meeting Saturday.

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Ukraine misses gas payment. How will Putin respond? (+video)

Ukraine Tries To Quell Pro-Moscow Uprisings

DONETSK, Ukraine (AP) Ukrainian authorities moved to quell pro-Moscow uprisings along the Russian border with mixed results Tuesday, retaking one occupied regional headquarters and watching protesters consolidate their hold on another.

In a third city, Luhansk, Ukraine's Security Service said separatists armed with explosives and other weapons were holding 60 people hostage inside the agency's local headquarters.

Those occupying the building issued a video statement saying they want a referendum on the region's status and warning that any attempt to storm the place would be met with armed force.

In the video, posted by Ukrainian media, a masked man identified the occupiers as Ukrainian veterans of the Soviet war in Afghanistan and said that if authorities try to retake the building, "Welcome to hell, then!"

The Ukrainian government and the U.S. have accused Moscow of fomenting the unrest as a pretext for another Russian military incursion like the takeover of Crimea last month. Up to 40,000 Russian troops are massed along the Ukrainian border, according to NATO.

All the cities affected by the uprisings are in Ukraine's industrial heartland in the east, which has a large population of ethnic Russians and where hostility is strong toward the government that took power in February after the ouster of Kremlin-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych.

European Union envoy Catherine Ashton said she will meet with U.S., Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers next week to discuss the situation the first four-way meeting since the crisis erupted.

In Washington, Secretary of State John Kerry threatened tougher economic sanctions against Moscow.

"What we see from Russia is an illegal and illegitimate effort to destabilize a sovereign state and create a contrived crisis with paid operatives across an international boundary," Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Kerry called the demonstrations in eastern Ukraine a "contrived pretext for military intervention just as we saw in Crimea."

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Ukraine Tries To Quell Pro-Moscow Uprisings

From 911 to the Knockout Game – Video


From 911 to the Knockout Game

By: PinHeadzBlackson

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From 911 to the Knockout Game - Video

Illinois bill proposes harsher penalties for `knockout game` offenders

Chilling new ad campaign targets `texting and driving` Chilling new ad campaign targets `texting and driving`

Updated: Wednesday, April 9 2014 8:38 PM EDT2014-04-10 00:38:29 GMT

Nearly 80 percent of teens and young adults admit to reading text messages while driving.

Nearly 80 percent of teens and young adults admit to reading text messages while driving.

Updated: Wednesday, April 9 2014 8:24 PM EDT2014-04-10 00:24:41 GMT

They are phone calls filled with promises of unexpected winnings, or desperate situations that require immediate action. But, there's always a catch and it could cost you big money.

They are phone calls filled with promises of unexpected winnings, or desperate situations that require immediate action. But, there's always a catch and it could cost you big money.

Updated: Wednesday, April 9 2014 8:21 PM EDT2014-04-10 00:21:07 GMT

The Illinois Senate has stepped up penalties for people who play the knockout game -- where a victim is targeted, then hit with one hard punch.

The Illinois Senate has stepped up penalties for people who play the knockout game -- where a victim is targeted, then hit with one hard punch.

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Illinois bill proposes harsher penalties for `knockout game` offenders