Laymans Guide to Reading the Tea Leaves About Iran Talks
Its a fools game to parse all the public statements and media reports about the nuclear negotiations with Iran in an effort to lay odds on the outcome as the Nov. 24 deadline approaches.
Heres why.
Deal-making, as any diplomat or skilled negotiator can tell you, takes place in secret, where the parties test the flexibility of their adversaries, and confidence-building and horse-trading are the name of the game. Good negotiators seek the best deal possible, and successful ones know when to quit bluffing or blustering and strike a deal.
Theres no way for the public to assess whats being said inside negotiations from public statements, Carrie Menkel-Meadow, a professor of law and political science at the University of California at Irvine and author of 10 books on negotiation, said in an interview. Virtually every breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations happens in private.
Irans Nuclear Plan
If theres a deal with Iran, it wont happen in one fell swoop, but in incremental offers and concessions and side-bargaining, she said. If that were done in public, it wouldnt happen.
In part because the U.S. and Iranian governments have competing interests, but also because they have demonized one another for 35 years, their negotiators cant talk about any potential compromise publicly without looking like theyve made a deal with the devil, she said.
The pace of negotiations will pick up next week, with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meeting in Muscat, Oman, on Nov. 9 for two days with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Catherine Ashton, the European Unions former foreign policy chief.
Aaron David Miller, who worked on Israel-Palestinian negotiations for several U.S. administrations, said hes given up trying to read tea leaves on the Iran talks. As challenging as an accord may look, he added, its still much more likely than a Middle East peace deal, because you have strong actors who are willing and able to take decisions, and theres a certain degree of urgency.
Last week, Kamal Kharrazi, the foreign policy adviser to Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that adding more economic sanctions wont force Iran to bend, and that for the international community, the coming weeks are the best opportunity for them to resolve their issues with Iran.
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Laymans Guide to Reading the Tea Leaves About Iran Talks