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Three Reasons Immigration Reform Could Pass in 2014

For the most part, Congress is the place where ideas go to die this year. But heres one that aint dead yet: immigration reform.

Are the chances good that something will happen in this midterm election year on the quest to overhaul the nations immigration system? No. But they arent zero, and conversations with officials from both the executive and legislative branches in recent days suggest the chances may have ticked up a bit. We should know for sure in the next month or so.

There are three reasons this patient cant yet be declared dead. The first is that House Speaker John Boehner has gone out of his way to show that he wants to try to get something done on immigration this year.

His most high-profile display of eagerness to have a crack at immigration wasnt artful; in late April, at an event back home in Ohio, he openly mocked Republicans in his own House caucus who, he said, are afraid to take on the tough issue. Artful or not, though, his performance served notice on his GOP colleagues that the subject remains very much on his agenda.

Its also true that the approach Mr. Boehner and his House colleagues want to takeconsidering immigration issues such as border security, guest workers and the legal status of illegal aliens one at a timeisnt the one the Senate took or the one favored by the Obama administration, which prefers a single, comprehensive bill. But administration officials say they can work with Mr. Boehner on his approach as long as its enough to get some piece of legislation from the House into a conference committee with the Senate, where differences can be argued out.

The second reason there is hope for immigration reform is the fact that the heaviest stretch of the primary-election season soon will pass. Immigration-reform advocates have always thought the chances of getting something done would improve once primary elections are over and Republican House members worried about being challenged from within their own party by anti-reform forces can start breathing easier. As Tuesdays big primary day in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio indicate, some of the most important primaries this year now are winding down.

And the third reason is the business community, which very much wants immigration reform, hoping that a new system will make it easier for a variety of American firms to find the workers they need. Look for business leaders to begin reaching out to House members in coming weeks to try to make the most of this one last chance for action in 2014.

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Three Reasons Immigration Reform Could Pass in 2014

The 1 race where immigration matters

Renee Ellmers is in a highly unusual position for a House Republican: She is the only GOP incumbent facing a primary challenge centered on her support for immigration reform.

The North Carolina Republican is one of a handful of House GOP lawmakers to publicly advocate legalizing the millions of immigrants who are here illegally. Her views sparked a Republican challenge from economic commentator Frank Roche, who is skewering Ellmers for favoring amnesty.

Most observers think Ellmers a nurse and former tea party favorite is likely to win the intraparty fight on Tuesday. Still, reform advocates, particularly those on the center-right, are closely watching her race as a test case of how much the politically charged issue of immigration will matter in GOP primaries. Republicans had feared that conservatives, stoked by grass-roots anger and help from outside groups, would descend on the districts of members who sided with the reformers.

(ELECTION CENTRAL: Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio primaries)

But in a surprise to some, Ellmers fight has been the exception to the rule in this years House GOP primary contests. Despite conservative threats, the slew of anti-immigration primary challenges for the most part simply havent materialized. Of course, Democrats could still badger Republicans on immigration come November.

Filing deadlines for more than 80 percent of sitting House Republicans elapsed as of the end of April. And advocates closely tracking GOP primaries could name only Ellmers race as one where an incumbent House Republican is facing a primary precisely over his or her immigration stance.

Reps. Sam Johnson and John Carter of Texas two Republican negotiators in a bipartisan House group that painstakingly tried to negotiate a House immigration bill with a pathway to citizenship breezed through their March 4 primaries without much being made of their advocacy. Johnson walloped his challenger by 80 percent, and Carter didnt even have an opponent.

(Also on POLITICO: Little hope for Keystone vote)

The Mark Zuckerberg-backed advocacy group FWD.us argued earlier this year that only one incumbent congressional Republican lost to a primary opponent primarily because of immigration in the past decade: then-Utah Rep. Chris Cannon to Rep. Jason Chaffetz in 2008.

Its essentially a nonissue in most of these races, said Jeremy Robbins, the executive director of the Michael Bloomberg-backed Partnership for a New American Economy, which supports immigration reform. But he added: It concerns me any time that someone who is very, very good on this issue is challenged.

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The 1 race where immigration matters

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