Can U.S. uphold Iran nuclear deal?
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Editor's note: Tyler Cullis is a Legal Fellow & Policy Associate at the National Iranian American Council. He is a graduate of the Boston University School of Law. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
(CNN) -- With Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry set to meet in Vienna and the November 24 deadline to the P5+1 and Iran nuclear talks in sight, the White House's ability to provide Iran with significant sanctions relief early in a nuclear deal remains unclear. At the same time, any perceived failure by the U.S. to deliver could complicate, if not poison, what will already be a tenuous post-deal period.
U.S. negotiators have not helped their cause. During the latest round of talks in New York, the U.S.'s lead negotiator, Wendy Sherman, promised that "as soon as we [the U.S.] suspend our major sanctions -- which will happen very early in the agreement -- the world will flood into Iran." Her comment was echoed by that of Western diplomats, who likewise urged the Iranians "not [to] underestimate the huge economic relief for their people" in case of a nuclear deal.
Tyler Cullis
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Holding out the carrot to Iran is a sensible negotiating strategy, but only insofar as the U.S. and its European partners can deliver on it. Few, however, believe that to be the case. Companies that would otherwise jump at the opportunity to capture Iran's enormous market are being advised to take a wait-and-see approach in the case of a nuclear deal. At the same time, Iran's population -- according to recent polling -- remains in a state of disbelief as to the U.S.'s willingness to lift the sanctions and turn the page in its relationship with Tehran.
This should be a major source of concern. It'd be the ultimate tragedy for the White House, which has spent as much political capital as it has on the nuclear negotiations, to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory thanks to the lingering effects of its sanctions. With a region in turmoil as ISIS, which calls itself the "Islamic State," continues its rampage through Iraq and the Levant, the Obama administration cannot afford the outbreak of hostilities with Iran. That's why President Obama must take steps to instill confidence in all parties that the U.S. can uphold its end of any nuclear bargain.
What can the White House do?
First, control the process. What the White House needs to do is take control of the sanctions file, create a plan of action for sanctions relief, and oversee the various federal agencies involved with sanctions enforcement. Some of that has occurred during the interim period of negotiations -- as the White House was not keen on any surprises that would frustrate the Iranians and the nuclear talks in the process -- but White House involvement needs to accelerate if sanctions relief is to take place in a clear and coordinated fashion.
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Can U.S. uphold Iran nuclear deal?