U.S. military engagement on Islamic State may alter the political calculus for this years midterms, but the potential impacts may reach beyond the next few months and into 2016, thanks to a shift among tea party supporters.
In September 2013, 64% of tea party supporters said they believed taking military action against the Syrian government was not in the national interest. In this latest survey, 68% of tea party supporters said they believe talking military action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria is in the national interest.
That shift is much bigger than the change among the county as a whole. In 2013, 47% of Americans said they believed military action was not in the national interest in Syria. In the latest poll, 61% say they believe military action against Islamic State is in the national interest.
And among people who identify as Republican supporters of the tea party, the number saying military action against ISIS is in the national interest is even higher, at 75%.
Of course, those new poll numbers have a lot to do with how the situation has changed over the past year the target of U.S. military action has changed to a terrorist group ISIS, as opposed to Syria, headed by President Bashar al-Assad. But that difference in tea party attitudes is still noteworthy, for a few reasons.
First, looking ahead to 2016, the Republican Party is a factionalized political entity and the self-identified tea party supporters are a prominent group within it. In this latest poll, about one-third of Republicans, 35%, identified themselves as tea party supporters. They will play a big role in the GOP presidential nominating process.
Second, the shift in attitudes about U.S. involvement in using the military against Islamic State is a big one.
The tea party movement, while a very loose confederation without clearly defined positions on many issues, has generally been considered a libertarian group focused more on the homeland than the world aboard. But Islamic State, and the perceived threat to the U.S. associated with it, seems to sit differently with the tea party.
That may lead to a very different foreign policy debate within the GOPs hopefuls in 2016 with less room for the more non-interventionist views put forward by Rep. Ron Paul in the 2012 campaign.
In late August, Mr. Pauls son, Sen. Rand Paul, who many believe will be a presidential candidate in 2016, has said he would seek congressional authority to destroy ISIS if he were president.
See the rest here:
Most Hawkish on ISIS? Tea Party Wing of GOP