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Washington Are Democrats going to maintain control of the Senate after all?

If so, that would be a surprise. Election fundamentals point to a GOP takeover. Mid-term elections generally swing towards the party that doesnt hold the White House, for one thing. President Obamas job approval ratings are so bad that theyre a stone around the chances of many Democratic candidates, for another. Enthusiasm and momentum seem more pronounced on the Republican side.

But a funny thing happened on the way to majority leader Mitch McConnell. In the past few days, a number of the major election forecasting models have lurched back toward the Democrats.

The New York Times Upshot model now judges the race for the Senate to be pretty much a toss-up, for instance, with a 51 percent chance Republicans will win a majority, and a 49 percent chance for Democrats.

The probability is essentially the same as a coin flip, according to the Upshot.

The data journalism site 538 gives the GOP a slightly better 55 to 45 percent edge. Thats still pretty close and its down from a 64 to 36 percent Republican lead on Sept. 1.

Then theres the Washington Post Election Lab at its Monkey Cage political science vertical. Today it gives Democrats the 51 percent in a 51-to-49 split.

All this has given some disaffected Democrats a little wind beneath their metaphorical wings.

A week ago, I was thinking Dems were toast for Senate; now I think GOP could find a way to blow it, tweeted Talking Points Memo editor and publisher Josh Marshall earlier today.

Well, missteps arent really what have caused Republican chances of winning the Senate to decline from 65+ percent plus to a toss-up. Whats happened is partly due to a change in the models themselves: As the election nears, they begin to place more emphasis on poll results in individual races, as opposed to underlying political fundamentals.

Excerpt from:
2014 elections: Might Democrats keep control of Senate after all?

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In this Sept. 12, 2014 photo, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin D-Ill., answers questions during an interview with The Associated Press in Chicago. Durbin is running for re-election against Illinois State Sen. Jim Oberweis R-Sugar Grove, Ill., in the November general ... more >

The No. 2 Democrat in the Senate on Tuesday seemed to blame House Republicans opposition to a comprehensive immigration reform bill for the lack of trained doctors in African nations now struggling to contain a deadly outbreak of the Ebola virus.

Sen. Richard Durbin, Illinois Democrat, said that the immigration bill which passed the Senate last year but has not been brought up for a vote in the House amid strong Republican resistance contained measures requiring some doctors to remain in their home countries in Africa before they could be recruited to practice in the U.S.

SEE ALSO: Obama: Ebola outbreak spiraling out of control

Mr. Durbin suggested that, had the House GOP embraced the legislation, there would be more trained physicians in countries such as Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, where the Ebola outbreak now is spiraling out of control.

We included in the immigration reform bill, which passed the United States Senate, a provision which provided, in one respect, if you are medically trained in Africa and promise to serve in Africa for a period of time before going anywhere else, we would honor that and respect that and not allow people to be recruited into the United States if they still had an obligation to their country, he said at a Senate hearing on the Ebola outbreak Tuesday afternoon on Capitol Hill. And secondly, that doctors in the United States would be able to serve in these crisis situations overseas without jeopardizing their immigration status. That passed the Senate. That was in the immigration reform bill. It was never called for consideration in the House of Representatives.

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Durbin: Immigration reform bill would've helped contain Ebola outbreak