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What Iran nuclear talks mean for oil

If there's no deal, that would likely trigger additional sanctions from Congress. Last year, Sens. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., and Robert Menendez, D-N.J., co-authored a sanctions bill that has been held up by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., under pressure from the White House.

In January, however, when the 114th Congress is sworn in, Reid will be replaced by Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. A Republican staffer said Wednesday of the proposed sanctions, "that bill will definitely be on the agenda."

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The Kirk-Menendez bill has 60 co-sponsors, and because of the makeup of the incoming Senate and the fact that preventing Iran from having nuclear capabilities is a popular bipartisan issue, those 60 are likely to grow to a veto-proof 67 quickly.

That could mean a sharp increase in the price of oil.

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What Iran nuclear talks mean for oil

Irans nukes: Too desperate for a deal

The levels of diplomatic activity, fear and even desperation regarding Irans steadily advancing nuclear-weapons program are rising rapidly in the White House.

The same is true for Israel and Americas Arab allies in the region, but for very different reasons.

Israel and friendly Arab states worry that the religious fanatics and militarists ruling Tehran will achieve their long-sought goal of possessing deliverable nuclear weapons.

President Obama worries that his endless concessions to and compromises with these same fanatics and militarists will fail to produce a piece of paper he can call a diplomatic success.

With the Nov. 9-10 talks in Oman apparently producing no breakthroughs, its looking likely that the looming Nov. 24 negotiating deadline will simply be extended though Iran may even force Obama to offer further sanctions relief before it will consent to another extension.

Tehran has Obama exactly where it wants him.

The past years intense P5 + 1 negotiations (culminating a dozen years of such diplomacy) have seen the Security Councils five permanent members and Germany make one concession after another.

This is not speculation: The White House has cheerfully leaked details of these concessions to friendly reporters to encourage news stories about how close a deal is.

Sadly, this practice is more evidence that it is the deal itself, rather than its substance, that constitutes Obamas Holy Grail.

Reports that Obama has written to Ali Khamenei, Irans supreme leader, linking cooperation against the terrorist Islamic State (or ISIS) with an agreement over Irans nuclear-weapons program, only further confirms this point.

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Irans nukes: Too desperate for a deal

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