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Irans authorities are carrying out a vicious crackdown following the outbreak of nationwide protests on 15 November, arresting thousands of protesters as well as journalists, human rights defenders and students to stop them from speaking out about Irans ruthless repression, said Amnesty International today.

The organization has carried out interviews with dozens of people inside Iran who described how, in the days and weeks during and following the protests, the Iranian authorities have held detainees incommunicado and subjected them to enforced disappearance, torture and other ill-treatment.

At least 304 people were killed and thousands were injured between 15 and 18 November as authorities crushed protests using lethal force, according to credible reports compiled by the organization. The Iranian authorities have refused to announce a figure for those killed.

Harrowing testimony from eyewitnesses suggests that, almost immediately after the Iranian authorities massacred hundreds of those participating in nationwide protests, they went on to orchestrate a wide-scale clampdown designed to instil fear and prevent anyone from speaking out about what happened, said Philip Luther, Middle East and North Africa Research Director at Amnesty International.

Harrowing testimony from eyewitnesses suggests that, almost immediately after the Iranian authorities massacred hundreds of those participating in nationwide protests, they went on to orchestrate a wide-scale clampdown designed to instil fear and prevent anyone from speaking out about what happened

Video footage verified by Amnestys Digital Verification Corps, backed up by witness testimony, shows Iranian security forces opening fire on unarmed protesters who did not pose any imminent risk. The majority of the deaths that the organization has recorded occurred as a result of gunshots to the head, heart, neck and other vital organs indicating that the security forces were shooting to kill.

The UN has stated that it has information suggesting that at least 12 children are among those killed. According to Amnesty Internationals research, they include 15-year-old Mohammad Dastankhah, who was shot in the heart in Shiraz, Fars province, as he passed by the protests on his way home from school, and 17-year-old Alireza Nouri, who was killed in Shahriar, Tehran province.

Instead of continuing with this brutal campaign of repression, the Iranian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release all those who have been arbitrarily detained, said Philip Luther.

The international community must take urgent action, including through the UN Human Rights Council holding a special session on Iran to mandate an inquiry into the unlawful killings of protesters, horrifying wave of arrests, enforced disappearances and torture of detainees, with a view to ensuring accountability.

Instead of continuing with this brutal campaign of repression, the Iranian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release all those who have been arbitrarily detained

Wave of mass arrests

On 17 November, the third day of protests, state media reported that more than 1,000 protesters had been arrested. On 26 November, Hossein Naghavi Hosseini, a spokesperson for Irans parliamentary committee for national security and foreign policy, said 7,000 people had been arrested. The authorities have yet to provide an official figure.

Several sources independently told Amnesty International that security forces are still carrying out raids across the country to arrest people in their homes and places of work.

Children as young as 15 have been detained alongside adults, including in Fashafouyeh prison, Tehran province, which is notorious for torture and other ill-treatment. Other places where detainees have been held are military barracks and schools.

Various government officials, including the Supreme Leader and the head of the judiciary, have labelled protesters as villains and rioters and associated protesters with foreign powers. State media has called for the death penalty to be used against protest leaders.

Also being targeted for arbitrary arrest and detention are journalists, students and human rights defenders, including minority rights and labour rights activists, and people from ethnic minority groups.

Journalist Mohammad Massaed was arrested on 23 November after posting a tweet about the near-total internet shutdown imposed by the authorities between 16 November and around 24 November. He was released on bail several days later.

Activist Soha Mortezaei was one of dozens of students arrested during a protest at Tehran University on 18 November. She has been detained without access to her lawyer or family since. Security officials based in the university had previously threatened to torture her with electric shocks and detain her in a mental hospital.

Minority rights activists arrested include Akbar Mohajeri, Ayoub Shiri, Davoud Shiri, Babak Hosseini Moghadam, Mohammad Mahmoudi, Shahin Barzegar and Yashar Piri who were all arrested in their places of work in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan province.

Some prisons and detention centres are now reported to be experiencing severe overcrowding. On 25 November, the head of the city council of Rey in Tehran province expressed concern to reporters that Fashafouyeh prison is extremely overcrowded and has neither the capacity nor the facilities to accommodate such large numbers of detainees.

At least two people who participated in the protests told Amnesty International they are in hiding fearing for their lives and said many others are in a similar situation.

One person said: I have been in hiding since I was seen and filmed by the security forces at the protests. They beat me with a baton before I escaped. I am now in hiding with a serious leg injury. I am not safe because they have gone to my house to arrest me. My situation right now is no different to being in prison.

While some of those arrested have been released, many remain detained incommunicado, denied access to their families and lawyers. A number of families told Amnesty International they are deeply concerned about loved ones who require access to medical treatment, given the authorities appalling track record of denying medical care to people in prisons.

Torture and other ill-treatment

Eyewitness accounts and video evidence indicate that some detainees have been subjected to torture and other ill-treatment, including through beatings and floggings. One person said that a family member who was released on bail emerged with bruises and cuts to his face and head and is so traumatized from his experience that he refuses to leave the house.

One video verified and geolocated by the Digital Verification Corps shows handcuffed detainees being taken into the grounds of Mali Abad police station in Shiraz, Fars province, and then beaten, punched and kicked by security forces.

Without urgent international pressure thousands will remain at risk of torture and other ill-treatment

Credible sources have informed Amnesty International that in Rajai Shahr prison in Karaj, Alborz province, hundreds of detainees, including children, were brought in trucks to the prison. They say that handcuffed and blindfolded detainees have been punched, kicked, flogged and beaten with batons by security forces on a daily basis.

Victims and eyewitnesses have also told Amnesty International that Iranian security forces have raided hospitals and medical centres across the country, arresting injured protesters and transferring them to detention centres, thereby denying them access to potentially life-saving medical care.

One source said that intelligence officials forced managers of a hospital in Khuzestan province to provide them with a list of names of newly admitted patients.

Another man described how he was arrested by plain-clothes officeOpen Graphrs as he was about to be discharged from a hospital in Alborz province after being treated for a gunshot wound to the stomach. He said he saw many other people with gunshot wounds and other injuries at the detention centre.

The authorities have an obligation to protect all detainees from torture and other ill-treatment. Given the systematic use of torture in Iran, it is crucial that the authorities provide UN officials, mandate holders, and other relevant experts immediate access to detention centres and prisons to conduct fact-finding investigations, said Philip Luther.

Without urgent international pressure thousands will remain at risk of torture and other ill-treatment.

Enforced disappearance and incommunicado detention

In dozens of cases reported to Amnesty International, detainees have had little or no contact with their families since their arrest and some have been held in conditions amounting to enforced disappearance, which is a crime under international law.

Relatives have told the organization they have visited police stations, prosecution offices, Revolutionary Courts, prisons and other detention centres to search for loved ones who have been forcibly disappeared but the authorities are refusing to provide them with information.

The mothers of a group of minority rights activists who were arrested during raids in East Azerbaijan province and West Azerbaijan province said the authorities said they had no intention to provide them with information. We can do whatever we want with your children. We can detain them for however long we want, even for 10 years... We will execute them and you will not be able to do anything about it, one official said.

Those subjected to enforced disappearance include Kurdish labour rights activist Bakhtiar Rahimi, who was arrested at his place of work in Marivan, Kurdistan province, on 27 November. There has been no news of his fate or whereabouts since. This is especially worrying since he suffers from kidney and heart problems and needs daily medication and specialist health care.

The world must not stand by in silence as the Iranian authorities continue to commit widespread human rights violations in their ruthless bid to crush dissent, said Philip Luther.

To read the Persian language version of this press release please click here

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News Iran: Thousands arbitrarily detained and at risk of torture in chilling post-protest crackdown - Amnesty International

Russia and Iran have affirmed closer ties in bilateral security and on their joint efforts in Syria despite U.S. lawmakers' passage of a bill that would slap new sanctions on the two countries over their support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani met Wednesday with Russian National Security Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Tehran. In their discussions, the former "pointed to the need to deepen the two countries' efforts to ensure regional stability and security," according to Tass, the state-run Russian news agency, which cited Tehran's embassy in Moscow. Patrushev called for both countries to work closely together in Syria, especially alongside pro-opposition Turkey in their trilateral peace talks, known as the Astana process.

That same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Tehran's ambassador in Moscow, Mehdi Sanaei, also "confirmed their commitment to further coordination of efforts aimed to alleviate tensions in the Middle East, namely within the Astana process of aiding Syrian regulation."

Both meetings appeared to signal the two nations' willingness to press on with their backing for Assad's government even after Washington voted in favor of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, a part of the National Defense Authorization Act. The former act is intended to further punish financially the Syrian leader and his supporters at home and abroad for facilitating alleged widespread human rights abuses throughout the country's ongoing civil war.

Washington cut ties with Damascus back in 2011 as the Syrian government cracked down on protests, leading to an insurgency backed by the U.S. and its allies that initially threatened Assad's rule. With help from Russia and Iran, the Syrian military made a comeback against rebels and jihadis as the Pentagon focused specifically on battling the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) with support from another non-state faction, the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces.

In the latest shift by the U.S., President Donald Trump has pulled U.S. troops from northern Syria to focus on controlling oil fields farther east. Meanwhile, NATO ally Turkey has launched an intervention against Kurdish fighters accused by Ankara of being linked to banned separatists in Syria's north. The move allowed the already-U.S.-sanctioned Syrian government to further expand its control of the country, which it has vowed to retake entirely with Moscow's and Tehran's endorsement.

Despite U.S. pressure against supporting Assad, the Russian military staged its first-ever joint naval exercises with the Syrian armed forces in the Mediterranean. The drills involved up to 2,000 troops and 10 vessels from both nations, along with Russian aircraft, operating off the coast of the Syrian city Tartus, the Russian Defense Ministry's official Zvezda outlet reported Tuesday.

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On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova signaled more coordination between Damascus and Moscow with an upcoming meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. She noted that throughout their planned discussions, "significant attention will be paid to a range of issues of further strengthening bilateral relations between our countries, including in the trade, economic and humanitarian spheres."

Even with tensions over their differing positions on Syria, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, sat down Wednesday with his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, for consultations in Berne, Switzerland. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the two men "exchanged their views on strategic stability, the situation in Syria and other regions, as well as measures to prevent incidents during the military activities of the parties."

The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff later released a statement saying the "two military leaders discussed Syria, strategic stability and a variety of other operational and strategic issues to enhance deconfliction, improve understanding, and reduce risk."

"Both leaders recognize the importance of maintaining regular communication to avoid miscalculation and to promote transparency," the statement added. "In accordance with past practice, both generals have agreed to keep the details of their conversations private."

As for Iran, the country has endured strict, renewed U.S. sanctions since the Trump administration's unilateral exit last year from the 2015 nuclear deal backed by China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom. The administration has accused the Islamic Republic of secretly pursuing nuclear weapons, proliferation of missile technology considered destabilizing to the region, and supporting militant groups abroad, including in Iraq and Syria.

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The U.S. and Iran were both involved in battling ISIS in these two countries but have pursued opposing interests across the Middle East. Amid renewed unrest in the Persian Gulf, the Pentagon has increased its military presence in the region as Washington accused Iran of human rights abuses not only in Syria, but at home as well, as security forces used deadly force against increasingly violent demonstrations sparked by worsening economic conditions.

On Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to "deliver remarks on human rights in Iran." This was to be followed by "a panel discussion with survivors of the Iranian regime's human rights abuses," hosted by Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Robert Destro, Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook and Ambassador-at-large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback.

With no off-ramp in sight for flaring tensions between Washington and Tehran, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was set to depart Friday for one of the few countries trying to be a conduit for the two longtime foesJapan. The planned trip will follow unsuccessful attempts to smooth the U.S.-Iran feud after Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's landmark visit to Tehran in June and September's bilateral talks on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting.

This story has been updated to include a statement from the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff regarding the meeting between General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and his Russian counterpart, Valery Gerasimov.

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Russia and Iran Get Closer on Security and Syria After U.S. Vote to Punish Them - Newsweek

Irans take on domestic security is increasingly reminiscent of the approach in China or North Korea, Norman Roule, a retired 34-year veteran of the CIA, told Haaretz in a conversation that echoed the fascinating analysis he recently published in the United States.

As Roule puts it, despite the U.S.-led sanctions on Iran that are badly damaging its economy, the regime of the Islamic Republic is willing to invest huge sums to stay in power, even at the cost of severely repressing dissent. The sagging economy, which is one reason for the violent riots last month, hasnt deterred the leaders.

Irans government and private sector have invested about $400 million in technology for cutting the Iranian people off from the internet, Roule said. During the recent demonstrations, the regime did just that; the leaders have discussed setting up a separate Iranian internet like the one in China. The efforts at repression also include major investments to jam foreign television broadcasts, all in an attempt to isolate the country.

Roule retired in September 2017 after serving in a number of key positions at the CIA. His last post, to which he was appointed in 2008, was national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which coordinates the entire U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and FBI. Roules position made him the principal intelligence community official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, as he puts it.

Pedophiles and politics: Why is an alleged child rapist still in Israel?Ep. 53

In other words, he had responsibility for everything U.S. intelligence knew or wanted to know about Iran. An important role was played by Israeli intelligence, whose work and leaders Roule has known well. This includes former Mossad chiefs Meir Dagan and Tamir Pardo, and the current director, Yossi Cohen.

Following his retirement, Roule became an adviser to the nonprofit group United Against Nuclear Iran, which has close ties to defense officials in the United States, Germany, Israel and other Western countries. Its chaired by former U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman and boasts a bipartisan roster of former senior officials from the intelligence community, the military and the State Department.

Its stated objecting is to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons. Pardo and Dagan the latter died in 2016 have been among the supporters of United Against Nuclear Iran, and about a year ago Mossad chief Cohen laid out his views on Iran in a speech to the group in New York.

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Undercover in Iran

This week the group disclosed that some of its members, posing as businesspeople, attended fairs and conferences in Iran on the pretense that they aimed to attract businesses to invest in the country. These undercover agents were actually seeking to find out which companies and businesspeople planned to invest in Iran and thus violate the sanctions regime.

People in the group called the mission a great success, saying its findings were sent to these companies and businesspeople with a warning to cease their commercial ties with Tehran. Thats certainly an unusual step for a nongovernmental organization; its more like the work of a spy agency.

Despite the Trump administrations ceaseless pressure on Iran, with active Israeli assistance, Roule said it appeared that Irans leaders have survived yet another challenge to their rule from an increasingly restive population.The demonstrations in November, which were sparked by an increase in gasoline prices, were the largest in Iran since 2009. The countrys leaders, who have played down reports of unrest, have confirmed that about 200,000 people took to the streets.

It's estimated that 7,000 were arrested and at least 140 people were killed. At no time did the regime appear to be in danger, but the scale and intensity of social discontent likely signals that episodic eruptions of rage and protest will continue,Roule noted. Irans response to this latest crisis drew from an old playbook.Regime voices blamed protests on Western powers and called for punishment of those detained.

Ebrahim Raisi, who in March was appointed head of Irans judiciary, called for the execution of the demonstrators. Roule and other experts believe that Raisi appears to be the leading candidate to succeed Ali Khamenei if the supreme leader becomes incapacitated. But currently there are no signs that Khamenei, who has had prostate cancer and for years has been thought to be seriously ill, plans to resign.

The regimes tough stance and refusal to compromise are reflected at a number of levels. Russias ambassador to Tehran, Levan Dzhagaryan, told the Iranian daily Hamshahri that uranium enrichment at Irans underground Fordo facility would soon be resumed.

Lebanon and Iraq

As part of Tehrans reaction to President Donald Trumps May 2018 decision to withdraw the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement, and with the renewal of U.S. sanctions, Iran violated some of its obligations under the deal. But it has done this in measured steps without signaling an all-out abandonment of the accord.

One of these steps was the resumption of enrichment using the advanced centrifuges at Fordo. But operations there were eventually halted, reportedly due to Russian pressure. Now, however, the Russian ambassador is saying the cessation was due to technical reasons and enrichment will resume.

There are also no signs that Iran, through its Revolutionary Guards and the guards Quds force headed by Gen. Qassem Soleimani, has moderated its efforts to entrench itself in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

Granted, demonstrations in Lebanon and Iraq are forcing the Iranian regime to consider its steps carefully. At this point in Lebanon, despite the ire of Soleimani and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the clashes are manageable. But in Iraq the demonstrations have been brutally suppressed by pro-Iranian Shiite militias and indiscriminate slaughter on the streets of Baghdad.

According to reports from Iraq, the leading candidate to replace Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned, is Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is considered even more pro-Iranian.

In Syria as well, Soleimani isnt being deterred by Israels attacks; the two sides appear equally determined. The Israel Air Force attacks whenever Israel gets updated information and the operation appears feasible. Soleimani sends weapons and members of Shiite militias to help establish his forces in Syria.

Recently there was also an interesting development in Yemen: Western intelligence sources cited by the French newsletter Intelligence Online have identified the commander of the Iranian Quds force in Yemen. According to the sources, Gen. Reza Shahi, a native of the Iranian city of Shiraz, commands the force of about 400 fighters, a unit of the Revolutionary Guards. Its reinforced by experts from Hezbollah who were sent from Lebanon. According to these sources, it was Shahi who commanded the missile and drone attack on Aramco oil facilities in Saudi Arabia about two months ago.

Its difficult to verify the information from other sources, but the fact is, in recent weeks Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Iran is deploying missiles in Yemen that threaten not only Saudi Arabia but also Israel.

As Roule concludes in his analysis: The crackdown tells us what kind of country Iran hopes to be.Certainly, millions within Iran would choose a different path for their country, if they could.But it also needs to be recognized that millions of Iranians continue to support the regime.Likewise, Irans leadership remains unified in the belief that the Islamic Republic must be sustained.Irans security leadership selected or approved by Irans Supreme Leader appear unified in its endorsement of a hardline future for Iran.

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Head of Irans Quds force in Yemen who's behind Saudi oil attack identified - Haaretz

Key Point:Iran is trying to fool people by presenting an old plane as new.

In February 2017 I published an article on the Iranian Saeqeh (Thunderbolt) fighter. Billed as Irans first domestically-built jet fighter to enter operational service, the Saeqeh.

Fast forward a year and a half later and we are again greeted with headlines for yet another 100% indigenously made fighter jet, this time a state of the art two-seater called the Kowsar. And yet it appears identical to an F-5F Tiger II two-seater jet.

If anything, it is far less original than the Saeqeh, which has airframe modifications including enlarged strakes and twin vertical tail stabilizers. The Kowsar doesnt appear to have any external changes from the F-5F. How was this jet even worthy of the photo-op with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in the instructors seat for Iranian Defense Industry Day?

It happens there really is a program to build a combat-capable Kowsar advanced jet trainer. It simply wasnt the aircraft on display this summer.

According to Iranian aviation expert Babak Taghvaee, the Kowsar may merely be an avionics testbeda regular F-5F fitted with new avionics (rumored to be of Chinese origin) eventually intended for use in the Saeqeh fighter, spruced up with a fresh coat of gleaming paint for the photo-op. The test-bed used may date all the way back to Iran's first attempt to reverse-engineer the F-5 in the 1990s, the Azaraksh. This was because the real Kowsar-88 wasn't ready yet.

Iran had announced back in 2013 it was developing a Kowsar-88 trainer which could also serve in the light attack role. In 2017, footage of a prototype undergoing taxi trials was unveiled which you can see here.

Though influenced by the F-5, the prototype is a different airplane and is much shorter. Interestingly, it bears a striking resemblance to the Taiwanese AIDC AT-3 jet trainer. Details are scarce, but the actual Kowsar-88 apparently would have a digital glass cockpit using three multi-function displays and uses two J85-13 turbojet engines reverse-engineered from the F-5.

The public has had short memories as President Rouhani also attended a ceremony showing off the Kowsar-88s in July 2017. Even the most uninformed observer can compare this Kowsar to the one displayed August 2018 and see they are not the same airplanes.

According to the European Defense Review, sixteen domestically-built Kowsar-88s are planned to take over training duties currently undertaken by the more capable Saeqeh jets in the next decade. Iran will attempt to acquire additional J85 engines on the black market, but if that fails, will cannibalize the parts from twelve older F-5A and B model aircraft.

Meanwhile, Tehran reportedly plans to deploy fifty single-seat Saeqeh-1 fighters and fourteen two-seat Saeqeh-2 fighters by rebuilding additional rusty old F-5E and F-5F airframes. Depending on the status of international sanctions, Iran may also seek to procure Russian Yak-130 or Chinese JL-10 (aka L-15 Falcon) supersonic trainers.

Versatile trainer/light attack jets continue to be popular with militaries across the globe from Chinas L-15, to the Nigerian Alpha Jets fighting Boko Haram, to South Koreas FA-50 Golden Eagle, which has seen a lot of combat in The Philippines. In addition to being forgiving stepping stones for training fighter pilots to fly more demanding aircraft, advanced jet trainers can perform counter-insurgency and strike missions far more cost-efficiently than a high-performance jet fighter. Supersonic trainers with radar can also perform light air defense duties.

Of course, these are not the sort of aircraft one uses to fight off F-15 Eagles or F-22 stealth fighters, which is precisely the major threat Iranian defense have to worry about coming from the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Instead, programs like the Kowsar reflect Tehrans plans to shore up fighter pilot training and sustain the number of operational airframes capitalizing on the raw material furnished by America prior to the Iranian Revolution if international sanctions curtail foreign procurementas seems more likely since U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

The latest episode with the not-Kowsar fighter illustrates yet again the casual dishonesty of Tehrans propagandists. Iranian industry wanted to display the Kowsar-88 for an expowhich does appear to be a real airplane! However, the actual Kowsar-88 wasnt ready for display this August, so Tehran simply took an old, very well-known jet fighter and claimed it was a new one, in full view of domestic and international audiences that would know better.

The irony is that Tehran doesnt need to be ashamed of its resourceful use of old jet fighters. In the nine-year-long Iran-Iraq war during the 1980s, Iranian fighter pilots fought one of the most intense air wars in recent history defending their home soil. Though higher-performance F-4 Phantoms and F-14 Tomcats shot down dozens of Iraqi fighters (and suffered losses in return), even the F-5s chalked up a number of kills against MiG-21 fighters and Su-20 attack jets.

Sbastien Roblin holds a Masters Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring. This piece was first featured in 2018 and is being republished due to reader's interest.

Media: Reuters

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Fake Fighter News: The Failure of Iran's "New" Saeqeh Jet Fighter - The National Interest Online

Just who speaks for Iran? When engaging with the Islamic Republic, the international community has tended to treat the country as a monolith, a consolidated political and ideological entity presided over by an entrenched clerical elite. That, however, is hardly the case. In truth, Iran is a complex and cosmopolitan melting pot made up of multiple, competing ethnic identities kept in check by a strong central authoritybut just barely.

This state of affairs is a natural byproduct of Irans imperial history. At the height of its power in the late 1600s, the Safavid dynasty, the greatest of the Iranian empires that spanned more than half a millennia, covered a swathe of territory stretching from central Afghanistan to southeastern Turkey and encompassed millions of people and dozens of distinct ethnic groups. Over the years, as the contours of imperial Iran expanded and constricted, a multitude of cultures and ethnicities came under its sway. As the centuries wore on, migration and commerce merged these disparate communities into what we now know as modern-day Iran.

Exactly how ethnically diverse Iran actually is, however, is a matter of some debate. There are currently no agreed-upon academic or governmental sources on Irans ethnic make-up, says Brenda Shaffer of Georgetown University, one of the countrys leading experts on Irans ethnic minorities. And because there arent, U.S. government estimatesincluding the CIAs vaunted World Factbook, which policy institutes and academia routinely rely on for figureshave tended to reflect official Iranian data regarding the population of its provinces.

That, Shaffer insists, is a mistake, because the Iranian regime has a vested interest in overrepresenting the countrys Persian majorityand underplaying the size and salience of other ethnic groups. By her estimates, the most reliable estimates of what Iran actually looks like internally can be extrapolated from earlier, and less political, sociological surveys carried out in the 1970s. Based on those figures, Shaffer projects that Irans current population of more than eighty-five million is made up of some forty-two million Persians, an estimated twenty-seven million Azerbaijanis, and roughly eight million Kurds, five million Arabs, two million Turkmen, and one-and-a-half million Baluch.

In other words, while Persians are indeed a majority within the Islamic Republic, their numbers are considerably more modest than generally advertised. The rest of the country, meanwhile, is comprised of a number of large and influential ethnic groups.

These groups are mostly concentrated in Irans various provinces, from East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Ardabil in the countrys northwest (home to the bulk of Iranian Azerbaijanis) to Sistan-Baluchistan in the southeast, where the preponderance of Iranian Baluch reside. Yet their influence is felt far beyond those places. Shaffer notes that, virtually without exception, Irans major urban centers are multi-ethnic affairsthe product of decades of intermarriage between urban dwellers from different parts of the country (and, before that, the empire). The most prominent example of this trend is none other than Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, whose ethnic Azerbaijani heritage is common knowledge within the country.

Nevertheless, it is in Irans provinces where ethnic identity remains the strongest and most politically active, which is why those regions represent a threat to the countrys clerical regime.

Throughout Iranian history, Shaffer notes, every time the center is weak, the periphery rises. The situation is the same today. With the start of the current round of unrest in Iran in December 2017, Irans ethnic enclaves emerged as the most vibrant centers of resistance to clerical rule. In turn, the Iranian regime reserved some of its harshest repressionincluding mass arrests and state-sanctioned violencefor cities located in provinces where ethnic minorities predominate.

The brutality of the official response reflects just how deeply Iranian authorities fear the political activism and destabilizing potential of the countrys ethnic communities. They have good reason to do so; in recent years, radical ethnic movements in various provinces throughout the country have emerged as a major domestic security challenge for the regime in Tehran.

In Sistan-Baluchistan, which borders Pakistan, a low-grade insurgency has been simmering since the middle of the last decade. There, attacks carried out by militant Sunni Baluch groups like Jundullah and Jaish ul-Adl against regime targets have exacted a heavy toll. For instance, In October 2018, Baluch extremists abducted more than a dozen members of Irans clerical army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in the province. A subsequent February 2019 attack on an IRGC convoy transiting the region left nearly thirty dead. Such violence, moreover, has persisted despite a 2014 understanding between Iran and Pakistan under which both countries committed to stepped-up counterterrorism cooperation along their common border.

Irans majority Kurdish regions of West Azerbaijan, Kordestan and Kermanshah are similarly restive. Over the years, Iranian soldiers have become regular targets of attacks in those places carried out by local radicals, often in cooperation with sympathetic elements across the border in Iraq. The most prominent actor in this regard is the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), a Kurdish separatist group linked to Turkeys outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party which waged a pitched military campaign against the Iranian regime elements in the region between 2004 and 2011. This group has sporadically clashed with regime forces since then.

Irans eastern province of Khuzestan, meanwhile, is the site of significant separatist activity on the part of the countrys Arab minority. The region has a long history of social activism dating back to the 1920s, but in recent years the situation has become more heated, in part as a result of the activities of an insurgent group known as the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ASMLA).

Between 2005 and 2015, large-scale civil unrest broke out in the province, mirroring the ethnic turmoil then occurring elsewhere in the Islamic Republic. While that ferment has abated somewhat since then the potential for large scale violence remains. In April of 2018, mass demonstrations erupted throughout Khuzestan, with the resulting clashes with authorities claiming scores of lives. And that September, a group of terrorists attacked a military parade in Ahvaz, killing nearly thirty soldiers and civilians in the most significant incident of its kind within Iran in recent memory. Shaffer points out that the instability in Khuzestan is particularly worrisome to the regime since it is located at the center of the countrys oil production.

Its no wonder, then, that Irans leaders are distrustful of the countrys ethnic minorities, and all too eager to suppress them. Authorities have long applied more discriminatory policies and stricter security measures in heavily ethnic provinces than elsewhere in the country. In his most recent report, Javaid Rehman, the UNs Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, laid out in damning detail precisely what form this persecution takes. The regime, Rehman outlined, is responsible for the arbitrary deprivation of life and extrajudicial executions; a disproportionate number of executions on national security-related charges; a disproportionate number of political prisoners; arbitrary arrests and detention in connection with a range of peaceful activities such as advocacy for linguistic freedom, organizing or taking part in peaceful protests and being affiliated with opposition parties; incitement to hatred and violence; the forced closure of businesses and discriminatory practices and denial of employment; and restrictions on access to education and other basic services.

Worries over ethnicity even permeate the regimes internal organization. In much the same way the Soviet Communist Party in its day managed the inherent risk posed by the diverse ethnicities that had been drawn into the USSR, Shaffer says, great pains are taken today at the official level in Tehran to ensure that soldiers in Irans military do not serve in the province of their core ethnicity. In this way, the Iranian regime seeks to mute any residual identity that might supersede loyalty to the state, should push come to shove.

If it does, however, then Iranian authorities will have some unlikely allies: ordinary Iranians themselves. For most, national unity is a paramount concern, and many would prefer a united countryeven one under clerical ruleto a fragmented post-theocratic nation. For this reason, ethnic politics represent something of a third rail in any discussion of Irans future. Even ardent opponents of the current regime make abundantly clear that they would back the existing status quo if the alternative was a breakup of the country along ethnic lines. Irans clerical regime, in turn, has exploited these fears, disseminating messages that emphasize that only it has the capability to prevent such a situation.

It is also the reason why Irans disparate opposition groups have spent so little time discussing the plight of the countrys ethnic minorities, beyond general promises of equal treatment in whatever order emerges after the Islamic Republics collapse. Underlying this laissez faire attitude is an uncomfortable reality: ensuring that Irans assorted ethnic groups are content, engaged and committed to keeping the country intact are among the most pressing tasks facing anyone who hopes to rule this nation of nations after the ayatollahs.

Ilan Berman is the senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. This piece is the seventh in a series of articles exploring the beliefs, ideas and values of different factions within the Iranian opposition, as well as the challenges confronting them.

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