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Tories’ ‘made-in-Canada’ recession narrative is only resonating because the Liberals have a lousy script – Financial Post

On the weekend before Christmas, Bill Morneau accused the Official Opposition of talking us into a recession.

I think its a little bit irresponsible of the Conservatives to be making people more anxious, the finance minister said on Question Period, CTVs Sunday political talk show.

Morneau probably was thinking of one Conservative in particular. Pierre Poilievre, the Opposition finance critic, spent much of December talking about a made-in-Canada recession, even though almost no professional forecaster had predicted one.

Im aware of your text-book definition, Poilievre said in Ottawa on Dec. 17 after a reporter described a recession as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction and asked him to produce evidence that such a scenario was likely. But I will say as Reagan said: A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job. And a recovery is when Justin Trudeau loses his job. Thank you very much.

Then Poilievre walked away. If hed had a mic, he would have dropped it.

It makes you wonder whether the news reflects sentiment or drives it?

Morneau, a former Bay Street executive backed by the Finance Department, might be a more reliable narrator on economic matters than Poilievre, a 40-year-old career politician with a penchant for hyperbole.

But that doesnt matter if you dont have a convincing story to tell. Poilievre is winning because he has adapted a narrative that has been resonating with people since short-term interest rates climbed higher than longer-term bond yields earlier this year. Narratives get lodged in our heads and they dont go away, even when contradicted by reality.

It makes me nervous, Simon De Baene, co-founder and chief executive of Montreal-based software developer GSoft, said earlier this month when I asked him about the possibility of a recession. De Baene had just taken me on a tour of GSofts newly renovated and expanded work space and he said there was no sign of a slowdown in his order books. Still, we plan for the worst, he said.

Economists are beginning to produce compelling evidence of the medias ability to generate what Nobel laureate Robert Shiller calls sentiment shocks.

Both The Economist and The Financial Times ranked Shillers new book, Narrative Economics, as one of the best of 2019. The Yale economics professor compiled years of analysis and research to assert that investment is just as likely to be driven by the zeitgeist as dispassionate analysis.

Narratives are the dominant explanation for the strength of a recession, Shiller told the Wall Street Journal earlier this month. The Great Depression was great because of the narrative. Franklin Roosevelt said all we had to fear was fear itself. That phrase is remembered by many people. And it isnt just fear. Other emotions, like anger, might change the economy and markets.

The stories behind sentiment shocks neednt be true or plausible.

Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, insists that pressure from President Donald Trump has no effect on policy and the Feds track record suggests thats true.

And yet Trumps harassment of Powell on Twitter causes traders to reassess the path for interest rates. Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada published research by Antoine Camous, an economist at the University of Manheim, and Dmitry Matveev, a staff economist at the Canadian central bank, that shows that when Trump tweets about the Fed, the price of contracts linked to the U.S. benchmark shifts to reflect a higher probability of an interest-rate cut.

Last year, the International Monetary Fund released a working paper by a team of economists that had used more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published between 1991 and 2015 to create a news-based sentiment index. They found that the tone of news robustly predicts daily returns on stock markets in both advanced economies and emerging markets.

The relationship still isnt entirely clear, but the project already shows that monitoring news tone in real time is a very effective way to capture sudden changes in investor sentiment that would not be captured otherwise, Damien Puy, an IMF economist and one of the authors, wrote in a blog post that the fund published on Dec. 16.

It makes you wonder whether the news reflects sentiment or drives it?

David Rosenberg, the one prominent Bay Street economist who thinks a recession is likely, receives an outsized amount of attention, in part because multiple outlets, including the Financial Post, give him a platform for his bearish writings.

The news business craves drama, so its hard to resist the tragic overtones of an economic downturn. The pursuit of tension also results in false equivalency, with outliers getting as much (or more) ink as the consensus. So its easy to game coverage.

But what ultimately is hurting Morneau is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has handed him such a lousy script. The finance ministers mandate letter calls on him to reduce debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, but also to invest in people, while at the same time preserve fiscal firepower. Even if all of that is technically possible, it reads like fantasy.

But an old-fashioned recession narrative? That makes sense to people. And when the audience becomes too big, the story becomes true.

Financial Post

Email: kcarmichael@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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Tories' 'made-in-Canada' recession narrative is only resonating because the Liberals have a lousy script - Financial Post

The Liberal Democrats are needed now more than ever – The New European

PUBLISHED: 10:23 04 January 2020 | UPDATED: 10:23 04 January 2020

The New European

Lib Dem MEPs on stage at the Liberal Democrats conference. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA.

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Andrew Adonis asks whether the Liberal Democrats now have a reason to exist. The answer is plain: now more than ever.

It may pain him to acknowledge the fact, but the Lib Dems (and Liberal Party before them) have been constant in their support of the European project since it began, through periods when his own party were the sceptics to the present, when Labour has been taken over by a Euro-doubtful hard left.

The arrogance of his claim that "if the majority of social democrats were where they belong, in the Labour Party, we would have a more equal two-party system" beggars belief. If the majority of social democrats were where they belong, in the Liberal Democrats, we'd have a more plausible pro-EU opposition to Johnson. It's hardly the Lib Dems' fault the Tories demolished Labour's red wall.

Roger Hughes

London

No, Andrew Adonis (TNE #175), the Lib Dems should not disband and join Labour.

I loathe the Tories but I live in a rural area where Labour has always been an irrelevance. I joined the Liberals in 1979 and all through the nightmare of the Thatcher years we gained more council seats at each election, eventually won control of the council and took the parliamentary seat in 1997. Lib Dems can beat the Tories in areas like this, Labour can't.

As for joining Labour, I wouldn't want to be a member of a party that allows members of the Socialist Workers Party not only to join but to control it; or of a party whose leadership ignored a party conference vote to campaign for a second referendum on Brexit; or for a party controlled by Len McCluskey, Seumas Milne and their sock puppets Corbyn, Long-Bailey or whoever succeeds him.

Like Andrew Adonis, I hope Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership but I am not holding my breath.

Richard Palmer

Pucklechurch

You might have expected Labour's catastrophic failure to prompt a little humility, but no. Instead Andrew Adonis is calling for the Lib Dems to be disbanded.

Inconvenient fact: while Labour's vote collapsed, the Lib Dems' increased by three times more than the Tories'. But because of our undemocratic electoral system, the Lib Dems actually ended up with fewer MPs.

The Lib Dems have more than 2,500 local councillors in England and Wales. Does Andrew Adonis want them to be forced to join the Labour or Conservative parties too? And to hell with those who voted for them?

Oh and by the way, does he want the Greens disbanded as well, and what about other Remain parties like Plaid and the SNP?

If this is the best Labour can do, they're going to be in the wilderness for a very long time.

John Withington

London NW1

The election was resoundingly lost not by the Lib Dems but by a spiteful and incompetent Labour party which ran full-on campaigns against us in all Lib-Con marginals, apparently more interested in preventing defectors like Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger from beating the Tories than actually winning the election. They also ran a concerted social media campaign against Jo Swinson herself.

Labour only win when the Lib Dems take some seats off the Tories which they cannot. A smart Labour Party would have sought to maximise this effect. Instead, they left their heartlands undefended and eschewed targeting other than to stymie Lib Dem success. This was a recipe for total disaster.

Ludovic Tolhurst-Cleaver

Trafford Lib Dems

- The fight may have changed but the cause remains. Buy The New European every Thursday to read the full mailbag of letters. To have your say email letters@theneweuropean and join our readers' group for more debate.

The New European is proud of its journalism and we hope you are proud of it too. We believe our voice is important - both in representing the pro-EU perspective and also to help rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.

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The Liberal Democrats are needed now more than ever - The New European

Letter: Liberalism destroys everything it touches – INFORUM

How in the world, the editors ask, can a professing Christian vote for and support President Trump? First off, the alternative was absolutely unthinkable. The Clintons had taken politics of personal advantage to an entirely new level. Bill, with a wink and that crooked smile, but Hillary has that icy stare and her cackling laugh. Had she been awarded a session in the Oval Office, she would have even accelerated Obamas openly anti-American maneuverings (he called it fundamental transformation), further eroding American distinction and diminishing international standing and domestic safety. The Clintons have demonstrated to their own personal advantage that government employment and positioning is the surest way to guarantee economic advantage and a measure of prominence, however fleeting. Unthinkable.

Curiously, most folks citing selected Scripture when criticizing the behavior of others, carefully edit the passage, skew the meaning and ignore the general message of Gods invitation to a relationship with him. Welcoming the stranger, or being kind to the oppressed, or helping the poor are surely bits of good advice mentioned in Scripture, yet most often suggested for someone else. Here again, show medont just tell me.

Trump policies have helped more poor by providing jobs (7 million) and encouragement all across the spectrum than all the government give-away programs of the last 60 years. Obama said it, Trump did it. Talks easy. Doing is hard. And none of this is possible without safety. Trump has bolstered the military and encouraged the troops, catching up a bit from years of diminished budgets and outright disdain.

Refugees and migrants, especially illegals, are much in the news and apparently in the hearts of noisy liberals. What about staying legal and enforcing some semblance of law and decorum? Generosity and assimilation are possible only from a position of strength and commitment, but todays liberal anything goes is a recipe for chaos. (Witness California and New York, both run by liberals)

Besides, if America and Capitalism are so despicable, why does most of the oppressed world want to come here, and sneak in if possible? Many refugees are being oppressed and even killed in their own countries by a belief system which is synonymous with death and oppression, yet truth cant even be mentioned lest one be called a bigot or worse.

Islam is incompatible with freedom, Syed Sajid Ahmad's columns notwithstanding. Why allow and encourage something known to be destructive? Human effort (works) have proven inadequate, yet mankind insists hell find the answer. Trump is the realist, and is telling the truth for the benefit of the country, even though liberals hate it and him. Liberalism destroys everything it touches.

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Letter: Liberalism destroys everything it touches - INFORUM

Parent and grandparent reunification program reopening postponed as Liberals look at new system – CBC.ca

The Liberal government is postponingthenext round of its widely criticized family reunificationprogram while it looks into developing a new intake process, according to a statement fromImmigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

The program allows Canadian citizens and permanent residents to apply to bring grandparents and parents to Canada.Critics have called the selection process unfair sinceall of theonline application spots were snapped up in just minutes earlier this year.

In its Monday statement, Immigration Canada said it's delaying the 2020 round as it works on a new intake system.

"This means that the opportunity to express interest in sponsoring a parent or grandparent will not take place on Jan. 1, 2020," reads the statement.

"Further information about the expected launch date and 2020 intake process will be available in the new year. This will give all interested sponsors the same opportunity to submit an interest-to-sponsor form and a fair chance to be invited to apply."

Jamie Liew, an immigration lawyer and professor at the University of Ottawa, said it's upsetting news for families who were hoping to apply this time around.

"It's a significant announcement in the fact it will impact a lot of people who have a lot of hope this time of year," she said.

"It is a significant thing that people who may have missed out on their opportunity last year are waiting for the opportunity this year. And to have that postponed must be disappointing for people who are separated from their families."

A spokesperson for Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino said the departmentwanted to give families aheads up that the application process won't be open inJanuary as it has beenin the last few years.

MathieuGenestsaid the government is "looking at all options" as it reviews the intent-to-sponsor form.

In a follow-up statement to CBC News on Monday night, Immigration Canada said the movewas made in"an effort to provide the best client service possible" and noted it"will begin the intake of new applications as early as possible in 2020."

Earlier this year, the government accepted 27,000 submissions for sponsoring parents or grandparentsand confirmed that more than 100,000 people had attempted to access an online form to express interest.

The online form opened Jan. 28 at noon ET, and closed less than nine minutes later,a processthatleft tens of thousands of people frustrated and furious because they couldn't access the form or fill it out fast enough.

Conservative Immigration Critic Peter Kent said in a statement Monday night, "It's clear that the Liberal'sclumsy and unfairprocessoffamily reunification demands a complete overhaul. First the Liberals instituted a lottery system, leaving family reunification to the 'luck of the draw.' Then, those following the rules were given minutes to submit their forms, and now they are left wondering when they can even apply to see their families again."

Liewsaid any reviewshould look at increasing the intake numbers.

"The system is not meeting the demand. That's the main problem," she said. "There's a greater interest and need to meet the expectations that we promote."

The Liberal government adopted the first-come, first-served online application system this year after scrapping a controversial lottery system for reuniting immigrant families. Thelottery system was contentious, with critics claiming it essentially gambledwith peoples' lives.

Thatprevious lottery process itself replaced another first-in system. Itwas unpopular because it led to long lineupsat the doors of the processing centre overnight and had people paying place-holders in the queue to deliver applications prepared by consultants or lawyers.

In May,CBC reported that the federal government made a secret settlement to quash two lawsuits that claimed the online application processwas flawed and unfair.

To resolve the group litigation, the government awarded at least 70 coveted spots to applicants, allowing them to sponsor their parents' or grandparents'immigration to Canada.

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Parent and grandparent reunification program reopening postponed as Liberals look at new system - CBC.ca

10 petitions that made the biggest impact this decade – fox5sandiego.com

WASHINGTON These days, it feels like theres a petition for every cause imaginable. Saving the Amazon rainforest?Check. Making Baby Yoda an emoji? Alsocheck. But some petitions are more successful than others.

The petition-hosting site Change.org considers a number of factors in determining which had the biggest impact: the number of people who signed, the zeitgeist and the conversations sparked and whether anything changed as a result, said Michael Jones, the platforms managing director of campaigns.

People really see online petitions as a tool to help them fix something that is systemically broken, Jones said.

Over the past decade, people took to Change.org to raise attention to criminal justice issues, honor community heroes and challenge pharmaceutical companies and other businesses.

These are 10 of the biggest victories, according to Change.org.

After 17-year-old Trayvon Martin waswas killedon February 26, 2012, his parents Tracy Martin and Sybrina Fultonstarted a petitioncalling for the arrest of George Zimmerman, the neighborhood watch leader who shot him.

More than 2.2 million people signed in support of the cause. Within a week, it had become the one of themost popular petitionsin the websites history, with 877,110 signatures.

The local tragedy soon became an international movement. Civil rights activists, politicians and protesters rallied behind Trayvons family and took to the streets to demonstrate against his killing.

In April 2012, Change.org declared the petition a victory after a Florida state attorney announced that charges of second-degree murder would be lodged against Zimmerman.

Zimmerman wasacquittedin 2013. But Trayvons death forced a conversation about police brutality and inequality and helped give rise to one of the most prominent movements of the decade: Black Lives Matter.

Zimmermanis now suingTrayvons parents, prosecutors and state authorities, alleging there was a conspiracy to frame him and demanding more than $100 million in damages.

Trayvons parents and their attorney called the lawsuit unfounded and reckless.

Maryland high school student Sydney Helfandstarted a petitionin January urging Congress to pass the Preventing Animal Cruelty and Torture (PACT) Act to make animal cruelty a federal felony.

The PACT Act had come extremely close to becoming law in 2017. Though the Senatepassed it unanimously, it stalled in the House.

Nearly 800,000 people signed the petition and in November, theSenate passed the bipartisan legislationthat the House had approved a month earlier.

US Rep. Ted Deutch of Floridacredited Helfand, in part, for the bills success. President Donald Trumpsigned the PACT Actinto law.

As thetrial of Casey Anthony, who was accused of killing her 2-year-old daughter Caylee in 2008, played out in 2011,a petitioncalled for the creation of Caylees Law, which would make it a felony for a parent of a guardian to fail to report a missing child if the child could be in danger.

It was one of the first petitions of the decade to go viral, Change.org says, ultimately attracting more than 1.3 million signatures.

At least 10 statessince then have passed versions of Caylees Law. Critics say the laws wouldnegatively affectmostly innocent parents who may be grieving the tragic loss of a child.

Death row prisoner Rodney Reed was sentenced more than 20 years ago for the 1996 murder of 19-year-old Stacey Stites in Bastrop, Texas.

Reed says he is innocent, and attorneys from the Innocence Project say they have evidence that exonerates him. The lead prosecutor in his case maintains that he is guilty.

Reed was scheduled to be executed on November 20. But in the weeks leading up to that date,outcry to stop the execution grew from supporters, including celebrities, clergy and lawmakers.

More than 2 million people signed a petition atfreerodneyreed.com, and apetition on Change.orggarnered more than 300,000 signatures.

Days before he was scheduled to die, the Texas Court of Criminal Appealsblocked Reeds execution, allowing a lower court to consider additional evidence.

After West Coast rapper and activistNipsey Husslewas killed in 2019, Najee Ali, a community organizer and Los Angeles resident,called on a city councilmanto name an intersection for the artist.

More than 500,000 people signed the petition in the days after Nipseys death. Less than two weeks later, the Los Angeles City Councilvoted unanimouslyto rename the intersection of West Slauson Avenue and Crenshaw Boulevard in South Central Los Angeles as Nipsey Hussle Square. Its thesite of Nipseys Marathon Clothing store, near where he wasfatally shot.

After a woman who goes by K said she was sexually assaulted by a tour guide who worked at a business promoted by TripAdvisor, she contacted the website in an effort to warn other tourists,The Guardian reportedin March.

But the company suggested that she leave a review about the incident,K said in a Change.org petition. When she wrote a review, TripAdvisor did not publish it because it wasnt written as first-person account, according to The Guardian.

With the help of the Change.org team, Kstarted a petitiondemanding that TripAdvisor stop covering up sexual assaults, calling on the company to do more to warn users about businesses where assaults had been reported.

The petition received more than 500,000 signatures in the weeks after, and TripAdvisorannounced changesto how it handles reviews and reports of sexual assault. But K and other activists maintained that the company still hadnt gone far enough.

After protests outside TripAdvisors New York offices and continued pressure, the companyannounced further changesto its policies, including commitments to partner with sexual assault support groups.

In June, K declared that the petition had been successful.

With these updates, TripAdvisor has shown that they are committed to both improving the experience for survivors and providing people with the information they need to travel safely, she wrote. Im thrilled to declare our campaign a victory.

After 12 years as a Scout, Ryan Andresen was told by his Boy Scout troop in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2012 that he couldnt receive the Eagle Scout award, the highest rank in the organization.

The reason? Because he had come out as gay.

Ryans mother Karen Andresenstarted a petitionto protest the troops decision, garnering hundreds of thousands of signatures andnational media attention.

In ahistoric decisionin 2013, the Boy Scouts of America voted to end its ban on openly gay youth. But it wasnt until 2015 that the organization announced it wouldlift its banon gay adult leaders.

When she was 16 years old,Cyntoia Brownwas tried as an adult and sentenced to life in prison for killing a man who had bought her for sex.

Years after her sentencing, her case gained widespread attention and inspired the viral hashtag #FreeCyntoiaBrown after A-list celebrities like Rihanna and Kim Kardashian West publicly advocated for Browns release.

In 2018, the Tennessee Supreme Court ruled that Brown must serve at least 51 years in prison before she would be eligible for release. After that ruling, apetition on Change.orgcalled for then-Gov. Bill Haslam to grant her clemency.

He did so in January, and Brown wasreleased from prisonin August at the age of 31.

In July, Teva Pharmaceuticals announced it had made a business decision todiscontinue Vincristine a drug used to treat childhood cancers including leukemia, lymphoma and brain tumors.

Childhood cancer survivor and pediatric oncology nurse Liliana Haas said the drug helped save her life and the lives of many children she works with each day. So, shetook to Change.orgin October to demand that the pharmaceutical company bring the drug back.

More than 215,000 people signed the petition, and the issue garnerednational media attention. In November, Teva Pharmaceuticalresponded directlyto Haas petition and announced it would again start producing the life-saving drug.

Five years after a New York Police Department officer was accused of fatally choking Eric Garner, theJustice Department announcedit would not bring charges against him.

Days later, Emerald Snipes Garner, Eric Garners youngest daughter,launched a petitiondemanding that NYPD Officer Daniel Pantaleo be fired.

The petition received more than 144,000 signatures. Protesters interrupted the Democratic presidential debate in July to call attention to the issue, and New York Mayor and then-presidential candidate Bill de Blasio was asked why Pantaleo was still on the force.

In August, New York Police Commissioner James ONeillfired Pantaleo. Heis suingto get his job back.

Link:
10 petitions that made the biggest impact this decade - fox5sandiego.com