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As the effort to oust Gov. Gavin Newsom from office intensifies, a critical question is whether another Democrat jumps into the race to replace him. No candidate has come forward yet, but many political experts believe it is inevitable.

Democrats wont have any choice, said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at USC and UC Berkeley. Its important to present a unified front, but its even more important for them to protect themselves.

Darry Sragow, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the party must consider the worst-case scenario.

The fundamental point is Democrats really have to think long and hard about not having a good alternative to Gavin on the ballot if he is recalled, he said. Thats just the reality.

Democratic contenders could come from a handful of categories: an impatient progressive frustrated by the logjam for top statewide seats, a candidate with nothing to lose, a rich neophyte or a party pick if Democratic leaders ultimately decide its too risky not to have a backup plan.

Rumors are swirling about potential candidates quietly talking to donors and allies. They include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who ran against Newsom for governor in 2018 but quickly endorsed him after he lost in the primary. He pivoted to the COVID-19 crisis when asked whether he would enter the race.

At a time when weve lost 50,000 Californians in the middle of a pandemic, politics is the last thing we should be talking about, Villaraigosa said.

On Friday, after he tweeted about the detrimental effect of school closures an implicit criticism of Newsoms handling of the pandemic and one of the recall proponents top arguments against him a longtime advisor to the governor lashed out at him.

My old friend Antonio will embarrass himself and forever poison his legacy if he runs, tweeted Sean Clegg, who previously advised Villaraigosa.

Other Democrats have shot down speculation about entering the race or have publicly demonstrated their allegiance to Newsom.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, a wealthy former ambassador, has said she would not run. Rep. Ro Khanna of Fremont, a darling of the progressive left, reached out to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to get him to publicly state his disapproval of the recall and is among the leaders of the anti-recall campaign.

Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de Len, who challenged fellow Democrat U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein in 2018 and is widely believed to be running for mayor in 2022, has been speaking out against the recall on Spanish-language television. Treasurer Fiona Ma and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon have donated $10,000 from their campaign coffers to anti-recall efforts.

Still, some said privately that much depends on what happens in the coming months.

Id be crazy not to look at it, said one well-known California Democrat who would speak candidly only if given anonymity.

Newsoms team is feeling confident about the lack of a Democratic challenger, but conceded that that could change.

The unified support is true. Until its not true anymore, said one person in Newsoms circle who requested anonymity to speak forthrightly.

Schnur said the dilemma Democrats face is reminiscent of Gov. Gray Davis recall in 2003. Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante initially said he wouldnt run, but changed his mind.

Having another Democrat in the race takes away from Newsoms strongest talking point that its all a partisan exercise, Schnur said. It also gives progressives who dont like him a reason to vote yes.

Wednesday was the deadline for recall proponents to submit signatures, and the verification process is expected to take weeks. Both sides agree that supporters of the effort appear to have submitted the 1.5 million valid signatures required to put it on the ballot. The election would then be held late this year, possibly November.

Voters will be asked two questions: Do they want to recall Newsom, and regardless of how they answer the first question if he is recalled, who should replace him?

So far, three prominent Republicans have announced they are running former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, former Rep. Doug Ose and businessman John Cox. The deadline to appear on the ballot is 60 days before the election.

Given the relatively low barrier to entry, a $3,916 filing fee or 7,000 voter signatures, scores of candidates are likely to join the race. In the 2003 recall of Davis, 135 people appeared on the ballot, including politicians, actors, activists, porn stars and celebrities notably Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Newsom kicked off his anti-recall campaign by appearing on national news and entertainment shows, pushing his assertion that the endeavor is a GOP power grab backed by the supporters of former President Trump and extremists.

Its a message designed to resonate in a state where Trump is hugely unpopular and one that Newsoms allies Californias top Black, Asian American and LGBTQ elected officials in particular have repeated in recent days as they spoke out against the recall.

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This strategy only works if no other notable Democrat runs.

Hell no, we dont want a Democrat on the replacement line. Weve seen this movie before, and we know how it turns out, said Garry South, a former advisor to Davis.

As Davis faced recall, South said, Feinstein grew concerned she had successfully beat a recall attempt as San Francisco mayor. Feinstein persuaded every statewide elected Democrat, including Bustamante, to announce that they backed Davis and would not run to replace him.

Bustamante reneged and got into the race, South said. And it gave credibility to the recall.

Davis focus groups showed that for a number of Democratic voters, especially Latinos frustrated by the then-governors veto of a 2002 bill granting drivers licenses to the undocumented, Bustamantes entry into the race persuaded them to vote for the recall, South said. He estimates that it cost Davis 5 points in the recall vote not enough to swing the election, but enough to have made it closer.

It gave too many Democratic voters a get out of jail free card by voting to recall Davis and placate their conscience by voting for Bustamante, he said.

Ultimately, Democrats tried to have it both ways urging a no vote on the recall and a backup vote for Bustamante in case it was successful. The muddled message as well as Schwarzeneggers name recognition and popularity ousted Davis, who became the first California governor successfully recalled and the second in U.S. history.

But 2021 is not 2003, and Newsom is not Davis. The current governor is more popular than the former, and the states voters have grown more liberal over the last 18 years.

Democratic strategist Katie Merrill said these differences make her believe Democrats can get away without running a backup, though she said the decision is high-stakes poker, no question about it.

Theres not a single person in the state, a Republican, who could put their name on the ballot and approach anything close to the popularity Schwarzenegger had at the time he ran, Merrill said.

Newsoms strategists and the states Democratic leaders have also done a better job of keeping the partys politicians united behind Newsom and off the ballot so far.

Theyve done an excellent job of putting out that fire, said Steve Maviglio, Davis former press secretary. Theyve made it clear whoever would do it would be a pariah in the party for the rest of their lives.

Every statewide elected official has publicly opposed the recall, with the exception of Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra, who resigned Thursday after he was confirmed to be U.S. Health and Human Services secretary. Weber is the administrator of the state elections; taking a position on the recall could create a perception problem.

The election is many months away, and Schnur said the uncertainty over what could happen over the next several months is why Democrats are almost certain to have a name on the ballot come election day.

There could be another shutdown. There could be an earthquake. There could be another French Laundry dinner, he said. The odds are with Newsom surviving the recall, but all it takes is one thing to call that into question and Democrats would be taking a tremendous risk by not having a fallback option.

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Is it inevitable that a Democrat will challenge Newson in the recall? - Los Angeles Times

Theres nothing that ails Joe Bidens agenda, we are supposed to believe, that ending the filibuster wouldnt fix.

President Joe Biden showed a little leg on changing the filibuster in an ABC News interview, while almost every Senate Democrat wants to ditch it. Even Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who still supports the filibuster, said a couple of weeks ago that resorting to it should be more painful.

Senate Democrats probably remain a few votes shy of really being able to trash the filibuster, which would require the support of every Democrat (plus Vice President Kamala Harris as the 51st vote), but they are steadily talking themselves into curtailing or abolishing the filibuster as a political and moral necessity.

This would be a mistake, both for the institution of the Senate and for the narrow partisan interests of the Democrats.

One would think that the experience that the party had the last time it took a hatchet to the filibuster would warn it off any repeat.

In 2013, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid blew up the filibuster for most presidential nominations. No longer would it take a cloture vote passed with the support of 60 senators to confirm nominees, rather a simple majority. Reid did this against the warnings of then-Minority Leader Mitch McConnell because he and the Democrats had worked themselves into a lather to confirm President Barack Obamas nominees to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Its a cliche for senators who support the filibuster to say that control of the body inevitably changes, but its true. Todays triumphant, inflamed majority tempted to ditch the filibuster is tomorrows embattled, desperate minority using it to wield influence that it otherwise wouldnt have.

Three years after Reids move, McConnell was using it to render Democrats bystanders as he transformed the federal judiciary. President Donald Trump got about as many nominees on federal appellate courts in four years as Obama did in eight.

Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, said they regretted what Reid had done, although Schumer has now apparently gotten over it.

If the rules around the filibuster have changed over time, the basic practice dates from the beginning of the Senate. The tactic got its name in the mid-19th century and has remained part of the identity of the Senate ever since.

There is now an effort to brand the filibuster as inherently an instrument of hatred and repression. The filibusters of civil-rights legislation in the mid-20th century are justly notorious, but the tactic has often been used to progressive ends, most recently thwarting as much of Trumps legislative agenda as possible.

Back in 2017, more than 30 Senate Democrats, including Kamala Harris, signed a letter urging the tactic be preserved. Of course, Biden himself has long favored it. As late as last year, he was saying that ending the filibuster would be a very dangerous move.

Democrats have changed their tune now, obviously, because they control the Senate. But the timing still isnt propitious for them. Its not as though the Democrats have a robust majority. They have the slightest advantage, thanks to Harris, in a 50-50 Senate. An unexpected retirement or illness could put their control in jeopardy, and its hardly a guarantee they will hold the majority after 2022.

Even if they ended the filibuster tomorrow, its not clear that their most prized priorities, like the H.R. 1 voting bill, could even get 50 votes to pass.

Biden and Manchin are flirting with the idea of restoring the talking filibuster, which would require senators to hold the floor to keep up a filibuster. This makes even less sense. A return to the talking filibuster would allow Republicans to eat up more of the Senates time and soak up cable TV and social media attention in the bargain.

Despite all of this, Democrats may eventually persuade themselves to move against the filibuster anyway and, once again, experience momentary satisfaction and lasting regret.

Rich Lowry is on Twitter @RichLowry.

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Lowry: Democrats would regret nuking the filibuster | News | aberdeennews.com - AberdeenNews.com

The white working-class helped fuel Trumps 2016 rise, but those voters have actually been gravitating to Republicans since 1992, according to research by Noam Lupu, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University. Working-class African Americans have remained steadfastly loyal to Democrats, but Trump saw his support among Latinos improve in 2020. That could indicate that a broader shift away from Democrats may be resonating with some Hispanics.

I think, for the Democratic Party, its a tough coalition to maintain: working-class voters who are really focused on their economic interests, but, at the same time, very progressive social positions for the urban, educated voters, Lupu said. I think Biden has an opportunity to rebrand the party a little bit.

Working-class generally denotes people without college degrees who have lower wage jobs. It also can mean better educated, better paid middle-class earners who dont like defining themselves as rich or poor. Trump won 62% of white voters without a college degree in November, according to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of the electorate.

During the campaign, Biden tried to contrast what he called the working family sensitivities of his birth city of Scranton, Pennsylvania, with Trumps Fifth Avenue, big city values. Biden also has pledged to be the most pro-union president youve ever seen.

A number of working-class people have seen politics not deliver for their families, and sometimes thats when Democrats are in charge and sometimes thats when Republicans are in charge, said Rick Levy, president of the Texas AFL-CIO. It creates an opening for demagogues who say, I can fix it.'

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Democrats bank on relief aid to win back wary working class - The Columbian

President Biden, along with leading Democrats on Capitol Hill, started the year with the choice between two paths to govern. The first route, which I have strongly urged my party to take, is characterized with bipartisanship. Democrats carry this incredible opportunity to consolidate their power by reaching out to moderate Republicans to achieve legislative compromises at a time when Republicans are deeply fractured. This route would lead to further friction, however, with the growing progressive wing.

It is clear that Biden and Democrats have chosen the second route, which involves embracing liberal policies and using their power to push through a progressive agenda without any support from Republicans. While it may lead to legislative wins, it will do away with the promise of Biden to reach across the aisle and adds the risk of potential losses in 2022.

The decision to govern this way has now elevated Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia to one of the most notable positions on Capitol Hill. Manchin played a pivotal part with the passage of the almost $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill and he, along with Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, have been critical to balance out the progressive agenda with the party.

Indeed, Manchin and Sinema are the only two Senate Democrats who are blocking the wholesale move to the left and toward the unchecked liberal policies in the party. Though Manchin played a central role in scaling back the initial stimulus bill from Biden to make it somewhat more moderate by lowering the income threshold for additional stimulus payments as well as nixing the minimum wage increase, the final package is now still the most progressive domestic legislation enacted in modern history.

One would hardly believe the bill was proposed by a moderate president who clinched his party nomination and the White House with his promise to unite the country. But this final package is more akin to something we would have seen if Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont had been elected to office. As Sam Stein had outlined in Politico last week, the influence of Sanders and progressive politics with the stimulus bill is evident, and his objective has been to move the window of discourse of what Democrats believe is tolerated, and Sanders appears to have done that.

Despite the fact that Democrats have slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, the stimulus bill embodies unconstrained progressive policies, including the direct payments to working people and ensured income for children. Further, Biden and Democrats are now planning for a significant tax hike on the rich to help pay for a new economic program.

Biden had the chance to reach out to moderate Senate Republicans, who were drafting a scaled back coronavirus relief bill earlier this year. Instead, Biden took the more feasible but more costly route of passing the massive $2 trillion bill with the reconciliation process. The final legislation includes several provisions that are both inflationary and untargeted.

Now there are talks that Senate Democrats could weaken or eliminate the filibuster, a mistake I strongly hope my party will not make. It is important to maintain the filibuster so there is a level of bipartisanship built into the system. Even if Senate Democrats can somehow get their entire coalition on board with deploying the nuclear option, doing so would continue the dangerous precedent for the Senate, where the party in control uses that measure in the narrowly divided chamber to dismiss the opposition party, effectively shutting the door to key legislative compromises.

It is clear that the left has taken over the Democrats. If the administration continues working to appease the progressive wing, while bipartisanship falls, then it could set Democrats up for some losses in 2022.

Douglas Schoen is a political consultant who has served as adviser to Bill Clinton and to the campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.

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The progressive takeover of Democratic Party continues | TheHill - The Hill

NORTH ANDOVER It was a first on Sunday morning for the North Andover Democratic Town Committee, hosting avirtual breakfastwhile continuing a long-standing tradition of honoring the partys representatives and supporters.

The breakfast, led byMark DiSalvo,brought local Democrats together, including state legislators and candidates running for local office. The virtual event also featured special tributes to supporters.

U.S. Sen. Ed Markey returned to the breakfast this year asthe keynote speaker, thankingeveryone for their support during his reelection campaign and giving updates on the progress he feels is being made in Washington, D.C.

Markey was also the guest speaker a year ago.

I loved being with you last year, the senator said, adding that a lot has happened in the past year to make him very hopeful for whats to come.

There is a light at the end of this dark, year-end tunnel, Markey said. We want to get things done.

Markey said Democrats should be proud they won the trifecta, keeping control of the House of Representatives, winning the Senate and taking back the White House.

Markey also said President Joe Bidens $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will bring relief and support to those needing it most as the pandemic continues.

It feels like our country is emerging from a very long and dark winter, Markey said. Its been a hard year but we have a lot of work to do. Its time to rise up, to put our justice agenda into action.

U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts sent a video message, thanking all for their support and hard work.

The committee honoredAndrea Holmbergas Democrat of the Year. Shereceived her official award at home Saturday.

Committee Chairman Michael Lis toldthe audience that Holmberg was deserving ofthe honor calling her a tireless campaign worker, party supporter and someonewho has held signs in rain and snow, helpedcomplete many tasks to support candidates, and has immeasurable generosity and commitment.

For Holmberg, it was a honor to be recognized.

She credited the many women in her lifewho helped drive her commitment to help others. That included her mother, friends, and even her young daughter.

Holmberg said she would continue to work for the candidates in whom she believes.

Former Eagle-Tribune reporter Paul Tennant was also honored by the committee, with DiSalvo saying Tennants work over the years covering local news has been valuableto the community.

And I always enjoyed attending and covering the North Andover Democratic Town Committee breakfast,Tennant said, adding that after the results of last falls election, he has a renewed sense of hope.

The last four years have been less than pleasant, Tennant said. Im seeing leadership that doesnt seek to divide.

In addition to state legislators giving their own views, local candidates running for several North Andover elected positions were invited to speak.

Those running for Select Board include incumbent Richard M. Vaillancourt, Joseph Finn and Janice Phillips. For School Committee, the candidates are Andrew McDevitt, David Brown, Joseph Hicks, Rebecca Stronck and Pamela Wall-Pietrowski.Max Butterbrodt hopes to win a five-year term on the Housing Authority.

DiSalvo is also running for another term as town moderator.

DiSalvo stressed that this part of the breakfast was nonpartisan, and all candidates were invited to participate.North Andovers election is March 30.

Those who attended the virtual breakfasttook part in an electronic straw poll asking for nonbinding opinions on several questions, including how participants feel about Bidens response to the coronavirus, Gov. Charlie Bakers response, and on the local front, North Andovers response.

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North Andover Democrats host their first virtual breakfast - Eagle-Tribune