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Germany faces a major crisis.

The German birth rate is considerably below whats needed to replace the population. German seniors, meanwhile, are living longer and drawing more on state resources for their pensions and health care.

There are basically two ways out of this demographic crisis. First of all, Germany could boost its birth rate.

The German state provides generous family leave and child-care policiesnot to mention the famous Kindergelt, the direct monthly payments of child benefitsand the fertility rate has indeed edged up over the years from 1.24 children per woman in 1994 to 1.57 today. But the trend in industrialized countries suggests that it will be difficult to push the rate much higher. The closest to the replacement rate of 2.1 children that any EU country gets is France at 1.88.

The second way out of Germanys crisis would be through immigration. The country could throw open its doors to people from all over the world to take unwanted and unfilled jobs, pay taxes, and support the increasingly aging population.

That is exactly what Germany did. The government of Angela Merkel, in 2015 and 2016, accepted over a million refugees from the Middle East and North Africa. Germany now has the fifth largest population of refugees in the world (after Turkey, Colombia, Pakistan, and Uganda).

This headline-grabbing decision, five years later, has been a remarkable success. The million refugees have prospered, reports the Center for Global Development.

Today, about half have found a job, paid training, or internship. On arrival, only about one percent declared having good or very good German language skills. By 2018, that figure had increased to 44 percentSuch successful integration also has impacted the local German population. For example, between 2008 and 2015, the number of employees in companies founded by migrants grew by 50 percent (to 1.5 million). It has also mobilized civil society. A survey by the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research suggests that 55 percent of Germans have contributed to the integration of refugees since 2015.

In 2015, nearly everyone in the mediaGerman, European, internationalreferred to the millions of desperate people trying to get into Europe as an immigration crisis. They should have given it a different label: the immigration solution to the continents demographic crisis. Germany wisely chose to take advantage of this opportunity, while the countries of Eastern Europe by and large have embraced demographic suicide.

The naysayers had a field day back in 2015 with their predictions of political failure for Merkel and social chaos for Germany. Today, Germany continues to be the strongest European economy. It struggled during the pandemic, but is now rapidly scaling up its vaccinations. And the anti-immigrant backlash, represented by the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland, has ebbed, with the popularity of the party falling to 11 percent in recent polls. Meanwhile, with its liberal platform on immigration, the Green Party has surged to 25 percent and may well win the September 2021 elections.

Its useful to bear the German experience in mind as the United States once again tackles its own immigration crisis.

Immigrants Are a Gift

The United States has been the exception to the demographic rule for industrialized countries. The U.S. fertility rate, at 1.73, is also well below replacement. But because of a constant stream of immigrants, America has managed to grow at a healthy clip.

That began to change in the 2010s. According to the latest Census numbers, the United States grew at the second slowest rate over the last decade since the founding of the country. The culprits were a declining fertility ratethe birthrate has declined 19 percent since peaking in 2007and a reduction in the number of immigrants. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemicin terms of mortality, long-term disability, and anxiety over economic insecuritywill only make matters worse.

America has always depended on immigrants and undocumented workers. That dependency has only grown more acute over the years. Lets take a look at four critical sectors.

Between half and three-quarters of the farmworkers who ensure a supply of food to the American population are undocumented workers, and many of the rest are recent immigrants. The pandemic hit farmworkers and food manufacturing workers hard, and even the Trump administration had to acknowledge them as essential workers in reducing their risk of deportation (though not providing them additional protection against infection).

Even before the pandemic hit, the food sector faced a shortage of workers. In a 2017 survey of farmers by the California Farm Bureau, 55 percent reported labor shortages, and the figure was nearly 70 percent for those who depend on seasonal workers, according to The New York Times. Meanwhile, Congress (read: Republicans in the Senate) has failed to provide a legal framework for what remains an essential workforce, pandemic or no pandemic, though the recent Farm Workforce Modernization Act has a shot of passing with bipartisan support to provide a million undocumented farmworkers with legal status.

The health-care sector similarly depends on immigrants. Of the nearly 15 million people working in the health sector, about 18 percent are immigrants. COVID-19 is going to exact a heavy toll on this sector, though. According to a recent Washington Post poll, one in three health-care workers are thinking about exiting the profession: Many talked about the betrayal and hypocrisy they feel from the public they have sacrificed so much to savetheir clapping and hero-worship one day, then refusal to wear masks and take basic precautions the next, even if it would spare health workers the trauma of losing yet another patient.

Even without pandemic-related job changes, the United States has been looking at a major upcoming nursing shortage: over a million new RNs are needed by 2022. Nursing schools are just not keeping up with the demand created by retirement.

Manufacturing, challenged by foreign competition and outsourcing, has infamously declined in the United States. Despite the spread of automation, this sector too needs more workers. There are currently 500,000 job openings, and one recent report estimates 2.1 million unfilled manufacturing jobs by 2030.

Then theres domestic work, one of the fastest growing sectors of the U.S economy. Home health aides, child-care providers, housecleaners: the vast majority are women and more than one-third are foreign-born. By 2026, care jobs will constitute one of the fastest growing professions in the country, and we will need more caregivers and nannies than we have ever needed before, writes the National Domestic Workers Alliance. Home-based elder care is already the single fastest growing occupation in our entire economy due to the rapidly growing aging population.

Home health aides directly take care of aging Americans. But the United States needs younger workers across all professions to keep alive federal programs like Social Security that support aging Americans. The cohort of people aged 55 to 64 grew by 70 percent between 2000 and 2016 while the working-age population expanded by only 15 percent. Thats bad news for people looking to retire in the future on their Social Security benefits.

Fortunately, immigrants have come to the rescue. They are overwhelmingly working age and have a higher participation rate in the labor force than the native born. Their contributions to Social Security help keep the system afloat. The undocumented have been even more generous, providing an estimated $12 billion to the Social Security system through payroll taxes in 2010 alone (without much hope of ever drawing from the system themselves).

Even with these contributions, however, Social Security is still expected to face a major funding shortfall by 2035 under current projections. One answer: more immigrants!

If this story were a fairy tale, the immigrant would be the goose that lays the golden egg. Immigrants didnt just build America. They are essential to the health and prosperity of the country today. Immigrants are the gift that keeps on giving.

Whenever a goose starts laying golden eggs, however, someone invariably starts talking about wringing the poor animals neck and impoverishing everyone involved.

The Politics of Immigration

The Republican Party remade itself into an anti-immigrant force before Donald Trump entered the political scene. Tea Party insurgents called for closing the border with Mexico. David Brat, an unknown economist, ousted House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a 2014 Virginia race by hammering at the immigration issue. Trump, however, took immigration and ran with it, promising to build a new wall along the southern border, shut down travel from predominantly Muslim countries, and make it nearly impossible for refugees and asylum-seekers to find haven in the United States.

Because of Trumps success in turning his extreme positions into federal policy, immigration largely disappeared as an electoral issue in 2020. The Republican Party focused instead on economic attacks (Biden as a socialist) and cultural broadsides (the perennial racist and misogynist dog whistles).

But with the Democrats back in the White House and in control of Congress, immigration will likely become again a major campaign issue in the mid-term elections. The economy is on an upswing, the pandemic is waning, and the Biden administration has been competent and relatively scandal-free. Without an actual platform of their own since they decided to turn their party into a personality cult, the Republicans will inevitably characterize the influx of people over the border as a crisis and the presidents biggest failure.

The numbers at the border have indeed increased, with the influx for April near a 20-year high. Despite the Republican Party criticisms, these numbers are not the result of Biden administration policies. The number of people apprehended at the border, for instance, spiked in 2018, under Trump, at more than 850,000, which obviously had nothing to do with Biden.

The surge so far this year is largely seasonal, a result of pent-up demand from the COVID-19 border closures, and a function of all the applicants stranded south of the border by Trumps Remain in Mexico policy. The numbers already appear to be plateauing. And the number of unaccompanied minors being held in Border Patrol facilities dropped dramatically in the last week.

The Biden administration has reversed many of Trumps policies, canceling funding for the border wall, reversing the Muslim travel ban, and dismantling the Remain in Mexico program. Without any fanfare, the president also allowed the ban on guest worker visas to expire at the end of March. Pictures of joyful family reunifications at the border are now replacing Trump-era images of children separated from the parents.

The administration has also pledged to address the root causes of migration by funding initiatives in Central America that will reduce violence and corruption, stabilize economies, and address humanitarian crises. That, of course, is easier said than done given the authoritarian leadership in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Tasked with tackling this issue, Vice President Kamala Harris is well aware of the folly of funneling aid into corrupt governments, and she is reportedly lining up civil society representatives to meet on upcoming visits to the region. A long-term strategy of fostering political and economic transformation in the region, however, wont win any points with Republicans or most voters in the United States in the short term.

The recent kerfuffle around refugee policy illustrates the political stakes.

As a candidate, Biden promised to bring U.S. policies on refugees and asylum in line with international standards and raise the annual ceiling to more or less the level of the Obama years. Because of a failure to file the necessary paperwork, however, the number of refugees admitted into the United States in the first months of the Biden administration remained extremely low. Because refugees are often conflated in the public mind with immigrantsand the administrations immigration policy was getting poor marks in the pollsthe president tried to get away with suppressing the number of incoming refugees. Challenged by members of his own party, Biden again reversed himself, returning to the previous promise of a cap for the remainder of this year of 62,500 and an annual ceiling of 125,000 for 2022.

The back-and-forth on refugee policy is an unusual deviation from an otherwise consistent set of policies coming from the administration. Its a sign that immigration will continue to be subject to finger-in-the-wind calculations rather than rational debate. Its a shame that it will require enormous political courage to embrace policies that are in the best interest of the United States, whether from the point of view of the labor force, the sustainability of the social welfare system, or the livelihoods of the newest residents of the country.

Republicans, with their steadfast commitment to political divisiveness and firearms, love to shoot themselves in the foot. Theres no reason for the rest of the country to follow suit. Maybe a delegation of Syrian-Germans can come to America on a speaking tour to explain how a crisis is really an opportunity.

Read more here:
Immigrants to the Rescue - FPIF - Foreign Policy In Focus

Earlier this year, the pandemic left me ditching the massive traditional ceremony of my dreams to plan a Disney wedding I never thought I could afford.

Originally, my fianc and I had planned a 400-person wedding in Oklahoma City with all our friends and family. But amid the pandemic and changing state guidelines, we cut our guest list down to 27 people, and I started looking into something that I'd never thought was a possibility: a wedding at Walt Disney World.

Planning a Disney wedding was nothing like I imagined, and I was blown away by the venue, food, event, details, and overall cost.

Keep reading for the biggest things that surprised me about planning my dream Disney wedding on a budget.

When I started planning, I (naturally) envisioned Cinderella's castle. But most of my guests aren't huge Disney fans like me, and I didn't want my ceremony to completely feel like it was at a theme park.

The castle is also one of the most expensive venues, with a starting fee of $25,000, which would eat up our budget.

But there are over 100 Disney venues to choose from, and they start at $2,500. Spots such as Fort Wilderness, Luau Pointe, and the Tree of Life which has a venue fee starting at $4,500 were definitely more in our budget.

We chose to have our welcome dinner at Tamu Tamu Courtyard in our favorite park, Animal Kingdom. For the ceremony, we wanted something with natural views and plenty of florals, so we looked at some of Disney's resort locations.

Sea Breeze Point at Disney's Boardwalk, which overlooks Crescent Lake, was a top contender, but we wanted to get married in the park. Eventually, we landed on Italy Isola in Epcot, which cost $4,500 and included rental fees, chairs, a musician, and a sound system.

We were also lucky to have a date during the park's International Flower and Garden Festival, which meant we could enjoy all of the flora in the park at no extra expense.

The biggest drawback of an in-park ceremony is that couples must work around park hours, which means choosing a super early (about 6 a.m.) or late (around 10 p.m.) time slot.

But the World Showcase in Epcot, where my venue was located, is an exception to the time rule. Since the World Showcase opens at 11 a.m., ceremonies start at 9 a.m.

For most venues, including ours, menus are 100% customizable. We went with a standard one for our reception and then modified items based on what we wanted.

For example, we got the famous Mickey-shaped waffles and turned them into an action station, where the chef cooks them and adds toppings of guests' choice at the reception. We also had action-station crepes and omelets, plus a bar for mashed potato and macaroni.

I also wanted to share my favorite food from the parks with my family. Fortunately, couples can request any food on a Disney property. The culinary team either re-creates it or provides a chef's interpretation of it customizations weren't pricey either; we just paid based on the costs of the items we chose.

Some of the food we served included Sanaa's bread service, Jiko's cauliflower bisque and lamb shank, Tiffins' Lion King dessert, Liberty Tree Tavern's Ooey Gooey Toffee Cake, and churros drizzled with Oreos. The Grey Stuff from Be Our Guest was our cake filling.

I also love that my husband and I can visit the Disney restaurants in the future to enjoy some of the food that was at our wedding.

Although Disney food was a focus for us, the chefs aren't limited to park menus.

Couples can give the chefs a family recipe to re-create, which we briefly considered. I think it's a sweet way to bring a piece of home to a destination wedding or honor someone who has died.

Since we had a small guest list, we definitely splurged on extra events, such as a "ride mix-in" that allowed our guests to go on a private ride after the welcome dinner. It cost under $20 a person, and I was charged only for people who went on the ride.

We chose Flight of Passage, so our guests were escorted to the ride with no wait time. Plus, they got to experience Pandora at night in an empty park.

After our wedding ceremony, we had a dessert party. Typically, these events are used for watching Disney's fireworks and eating desserts. Because of the pandemic, Disney wasn't doing fireworks, so we adjusted our plan.

We also took into consideration the Florida heat. We shortened our reception to only brunch, and then later in the evening, once the weather cooled down, we held a party for dancing, cake, and desserts.

This allowed our guests to go back to their hotels and rest before the party portion of our event. In between events, my bridal party even headed over to Universal Studios for a few hours.

We held our dessert party at Whitehall Patio at the Grand Floridian, which featured the famous Monorail flying right over us.

For a higher cost, we could've added a farewell brunch, a bridesmaid tea party (you can invite Alice and the Mad Hatter), and a dessert cruise to our wedding.

I'm a very type A sort of planner, so it was really hard for me to just trust the Disney wedding coordinators to do their job.

Once I gave them my plans and ideas, I didn't hear from the team for a while, which was kind of terrifying.

I felt like something was bound to go wrong I've heard so many horror stories about wedding planners. But nothing did, and the few times that plans had to be adjusted, my coordinator already had a solution before contacting me, and everything was resolved in a quick email exchange.

Overall, the planning process was delightfully hands-off, which let me focus on the fun stuff, such as my menu, without stressing over the little details.

I easily hit Disney's wedding minimum of $10,000. Beyond that, my planner helped me use the rest of my budget in a smart way.

Since Disney was all-in-one planning, I was able to look at my overall budget and cut non-priority items, and I kept only the must-haves throughout the entire process. For example, the Ooey Gooey Toffee Cake was putting me over budget, so we removed one item of decor from the dessert party that I didn't even notice was gone, and I was back on track.

The coordinators were also helpful when it came to making affordable swaps. When I told my florist I love white roses but wanted to be cost-effective, she designed a bouquet with white florals that captured the essence of what I wanted and stayed within my price range.

Getting married at Disney isn't necessarily cheap, but it is much more cost-effective than I'd imagined. My mind was definitely blown by Disney's pricing models.

Above all, our intimate Disney wedding was much cheaper than what we were going to spend on our larger, standard wedding.

At home in Oklahoma City, venues we looked at started at $5,000 so I definitely feel like we came out on top with our $4,500 venue fee at Epcot. Disney's venue fee also included a violinist, chairs, an audio system with a sound technician, and a planner which would've been thousands of more dollars for a traditional wedding.

Let me be clear: Getting married in front of Cinderella's castle with a big guest list is certainly going to cost you, but Disney has a lot of venues that I felt were cost-effective.

Plus, we got the famous Epcot ball as our backdrop.

See the original post:
My Disney World wedding cost $25,000. Here are 9 things that surprised me the most while planning it. - Insider

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The top 2 websites for buying Instagram followers instantly in 2021 - Business MattersBusiness Matters

Everyone is talking about Clubhouse but is this a chat app, marketing tool, or a new way to connect reporters and industry experts around the globe? We asked seven journalists for their experiences and thoughts on Clubhouse and the opportunities it held for media relations.

Clubhouse launched in April 2020 as an invitation-only audio chat iPhone app. Through this platform users create and join audio chat rooms to engage in conversations on a huge range of topics from AI to cannabis to meditation, or just listen. While Clubhouse was active from the start, it became a global phenomenon when celebrities and CEOs such as Tiffany Haddish, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg joined in. Additionally, Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn recently announced similar services.

Clubhouse for PR

A year later, Clubhouse has become a learning and educational tool for PR professionals and journalists all over the globe. When I joined a few media-specific rooms, I observed how journalists and publicists openly discuss dos and donts of pitching, cold-calling and messaging via Instagram at the eleventh hour. It is here that PR professionals research, gather insight on upcoming stories and stay on top of the emerging trends. Together with journalists, they explore working with various media outlets and learn how to pitch their story.

PR pros can also expand their knowledge base and identify new opportunities in Clubhouses topic-based rooms, where theyre able to listen to conversations directly or indirectly related to their brand or industry. Within these rooms, PR pros can learn from and engage with reporters, building relationships based on useful information sharing, not a pitch.

For media outlets, the app provides the opportunity for publications to connect with their readers directly and in real time. For example, Insider created its own club of weekly conversations, Insider, in which their journalists cover a variety of topics from influencers to the stock market, and answer audience questions.

To identify exactly how reporters are using Clubhouse, we asked the following seven reporters who are active on Clubhouse for their candid opinions about the app, and offer our media relations takeaways on how PR pros can use the app to increase results:

How Are Journalists Using Clubhouse?

What Are the Pros of using Clubhouse?

What Are the Cons of Using Clubhouse?

Looking ahead: Predictions for Public Relations

Since its launch, Clubhouse has provided new opportunities for media professionals to network all over the globe, find new diverse voices, uncover story ideas, expand the pool of freelancers and meet PR and media professionals without leaving the safety of their homes. After a year of isolation, I think people are looking to connect on a personal level within their field, shared Stefan Blitz.

For PR professionals, the app allows an insiders look in the journalism kitchen to see what journalists are writing about now, what trends are they covering, how they prefer to be pitched to and when. Armed with this information as well as gaining new contacts and re-establishing connections with old ones PR professionals can repurpose knowledge gained on Clubhouse for upcoming campaigns and further advise their teams and clients on how best to utilize the app.

Some companies are already embracing Clubhouse as a marketing tool, using it to complement conferences, thought leadership, webinars and other activities in order to reach participants from anywhere in real time. Clubhouse is probably the best networking platform during COVID. But it's hard to see why people will continue to use it at the same rates as right now once life returns to something that feels more normal, says Elisabeth Buchwald. Personally, I miss going to industry conferences as a reporter. Without a press pass though, it would cost me a lot out-of-pocket to attend. So, I do hope efforts are made to integrate Clubhouse with traditional conferences so more people can partake.

Is Clubhouse the next big social network? It may be. An audio app that allows for real-time networking in a time when audiences are both tired of being on video and craving human engagement, Clubhouse has all the elements for success.

Journalism Communities to Follow on Clubhouse

Thinking about joining Clubhouse as part of your PR initiatives? Our experts suggest following these top media and communications communities:

Get the latest PR, IR, Marketing and Media tips on the Business Wire Blog. Subscribe today!

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A Must Read for PR Pros: 7 Journalists Share Pros and Cons to Using Clubhouse - Business Wire

Ankara wants to improve ties with Riyadh after relations were rocked by Khashoggi murder by Saudi hit squad in Istanbul.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Arabias King Salman bin Abdulaziz have discussed bilateral ties in a call, the second conversation between the two leaders in less than a month.

In a brief statement late on Tuesday, Turkeys communications directorate said the two leaders evaluated matters on issues affecting both countries and steps to be taken to further the cooperation.

Turkey is seeking to improve ties with Saudi Arabia after they were thrown into crisis by the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by a Saudi hit squad inside the kingdoms consulate in Istanbul.

Last year, Saudi businessmen endorsed an unofficial boycott of Turkish goods in response to what they called hostility from Ankara, slashing the value of trade by 98 percent.

Erdogans spokesman Ibrahim Kalin last month said that Erdogan and King Salman had a good call in April and that the foreign ministers of the two countries had agreed to meet.

Tuesdays conversation came a day before a meeting between Turkish and Egyptian officials in Cairo, the latest step in Turkeys push to mend relations with another United States-allied Arab power.

Turkey said in March it had started talks with Egypt to try to improve relations which collapsed after Egypts army overthrew a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood president close to Turkey in 2013, in what Ankara said was a military coup.

Egypts restoration of ties with Qatar, after a four-year Gulf blockade along with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, has also boosted efforts towards more regional diplomacy.

Cairo has not appeared to share the same level of enthusiasm for rapprochement as Turkey. Words are not enough, they must be matched by deeds, Egypts Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry had said in March.

Theres a great deal of mistrust fuelled by eight years of open hostility, and so Egypt feels hesitant, said Nael Shama, the author of a book on Egypts foreign policy under deposed leaders Mohamed Morsi and Hosni Mubarak.

Originally posted here:
Turkeys Erdogan and Saudi King Salman discuss ties over phone - Al Jazeera English