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Bruce Anderson: While theres a voter-rich battle to their left, Liberals must notice OToole is relaunching the fight for the centre that his predecessors weren't interested in

Bruce Anderson is chairman of Abacus Data and Summa Communications and a partner in Spark Advocacy

Having worked in several national elections, some for the Liberal Party, some for the Progressive Conservative Party, the polling I studied made one thing really clearwhile its common to talk about the base as fundamental to electoral success, its really the swing voters that matter.

Elections in Canada are won or lost by a margin of 1 to 2 million votes, and the trading of these votes among parties can be tricky to see on the surface of polling data, but vital to study below the surface. Vote switching is what campaigns turn onfinding some share you can take from your opponent, figuring how best to win those voters, and then closing the deal.

In our latest Abacus Data work, something caught my eye. The number of Liberal/NDP switcherspeople who say that they will vote for one of these two parties, but if they change their mind it will be a vote for the other oneis a lot bigger than the number of Liberal/Conservative switchers. Today, one fifth (21 per cent) of the electorate indicate their choice will be red or orange. About half as many (9 per cent) say their choice will be Liberal or Conservative.

Historically, this wasnt the case. The deepest pool of swing voters was Liberal/Conservative switchers, a mass of people who lived around the centre of the spectrumpeople who didnt like too much government spending or too little government services, whose progressive instincts were tempered by a frugal mindset, who could feel tempted either by grand ambitions of the Liberal Party or worried that we were getting out over our skis and needed to be more practical.

I think a few things caused the pool of Liberal/Conservative switchers to shrink and probably the thing Im most curious about is whether Erin OToole is making progress in turning that around.

Heres what made the pool shrink in my opinion.

When the Progressive Conservative Party was replaced by the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance and then the Conservative Party of Canada, most of the campaign energy of that new party went to cementing the foundation rather than building. It was as though self-styled mission conservatives were so relieved at the thought of not having to water down their personal agendas that they paid little attention to how many voters they were pushing away, as long as they could see a path to about 38 or 39 per cent popular vote. Turns out that approach did make some people who would normally consider Conservative their second choice decide the party wasnt for them, and it left the Conservatives working with very thin margin for error if they were going to win an election.

More recently, a great deal of Conservative energy has been poured into brittle criticisms of Justin Trudeau. Ive no doubt it feels good within the Conservative caucus rooms and raises plenty of money from diehard Conservative voters but it hasnt connected with other voters who might be open to the idea of a Conservative government, but dont hate Justin Trudeau. Trudeau haters are mostly a lock for the Conservative Party, they arent going anywhere, especially if they see the prospect of a victory. But a campaign about anger at Trudeau is counterproductive among voters who havent been interested in that argument so far. On that point, 62 per cent of the Liberal/Conservative switchers have a good impression of Trudeau, 42 per cent have a good impression of OToole.

Its early days, but in Erin OToole the Conservatives may have a leader who gets this math, quite possibly because it is the math of his political birthplace in Ontario. The absent voice of Jason Kenney, the relative silence of Pierre Poilievre and some other front benchers, no campaigning with Doug Ford are all things you would do if you wanted to win votes from the Liberal Party and not only excite the base. He saw in Derek Sloan a line that needed drawing and he drew it.

These moves have given the Conservatives more potential to grow. And while straying from base rallying might have driven down support among hard core conservatives, his popularity with them, which had been relatively soft, is firming up.

OTooles platform might fail a stress test on some big issues like climate change and childcare. His caucus includes a substantial number of people who, left to their own devices, would revisit abortion and waffle on the rights of some minority groups. A fascination with China bashing is unlikely to grow support. Tone deaf harangues about vaccines earlier this year helped the Liberal Party more than his own. The Conservative brand is still a heavy burden to carry into a conversation aimed at winning young, urban and suburban centrist voters. But with policies aimed at helping gig economy workersOToole is making a pitch that his recent predecessors werent really into.

For the Liberals, it may have been tempting to focus almost exclusively on the battle on their left flankwhere the number of winnable votes is large and the philosophical differences small. However their path to another victory will require attention to the centre and the efforts by Erin OToole to present his party in a different light.

See the article here:
The Conservatives opportunity and the Liberal imperative - Maclean's

As party leaders head to Montreal to prepare for the French-language debate that will air on Quebecs TVA network on Thursday, each will be touting his platform to woo crucial voters in the province.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul and Peoples Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier havent been invited to participate in the debate.

Bloc Qubcois Leader Yves-Franois Blanchet has been criss-crossing the province since the election call on Aug. 15, hoping to increase his 32 seats in the House of Commons. But one riding he might not have to spend much time in is Rivire-des-Mille-les, in the northern suburbs of Montreal.

The riding was created in 1996 and given its current name two years later. The Bloc held it until the orange wave in 2011, when Laurin Liu took it. Liu was one of five NDP candidates attending McGill University who won that year, making Thomas Mulcair the official opposition leader. She lost the seat in 2015 to Liberal Linda Lapointe.

Four years later, Bloc candidate Luc Desilets defeated Lapointe by 2,620 votes.

Lapointe is back this election, challenging Desilets for the seat. The other candidates include Conservative Marc Duffy-Vincelette, NDP Joseph Hakizimana, the Peoples partys Hans Roker Jr., and the Greens Alex Ware.

According to a new Mainstreet riding poll, Desilets might survive the challenge. If an election were held today, 35 per cent of leaning and decided voters in the riding would vote Bloc, 30 per cent would vote Liberal, and 18 per cent would vote Conservative.

The survey of 436 adults was conducted on Aug. 31 using automated telephone interviews and online samples.

Meanwhile, heading east, the ground game in Fredericton is telling a different story than what polls suggest.

Since 2008, the riding has gone from Conservative to Liberal to Green. Its currently held by Jenica Atwin, who crossed the floor in June to join the Liberal caucus. In 2019, Atwin won the election as a Green with 33.68 per cent of the vote, compared to Conservative Andrea Johnsons 30.38 per cent and incumbent Liberal Matt DeCourceys 27.41 per cent.

Johnson is again running for the Conservatives, while Nicole OByrne, whos taught law at the University of New Brunswick since 2009, is running for the Greens. Shawn Oldenburg is representing the NDP.

This election is closer than what polls suggest, says Thomas Bateman, a political science professor at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, and if Atwin had remained with the Greens, she would have won the seat handily.

Atwin lost the endorsement of the popular Fredericton MLA David Coon, who campaigned hard for her in 2019, Bateman told iPolitics in an email. And the Greens have put up a serious candidate in law prof Nicole OByrne.

A new Mainstreet survey shows that if a federal election were held today, 42 per cent of leaning and decided voters in the riding would vote Liberal, 33 per cent would vote Conservative, 11 per cent the NDP, and the Greens would nab six per cent.

The survey of 307 adults was conducted on Sept.1 using automated telephone interviews and online samples. As this survey used non-probability sampling to collect this sample, a margin of error cant be applied to this sample. However, the margin of error for a probability sample of this size would be +/- 5.6 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

This is a three-way race of females, and while the Green party might not be doing well nationally, it has a strong following in Fredericton, said Jamie Gillies, a professor of public policy and communications at St. Thomas University.

The grassroots for the Green party are a real army of volunteers, he said. They fundraise, they work very hard provincially, and they do very well. Federally, this is the best Green riding other than Vancouver Island.

One thing is certain, Gillies added. There will be a female MP representing (Fredericton) after the election.

More from iPolitics

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Bloc and Liberals poised to hold two key ridings - iPolitics.ca

FILIPINO fighter Denice Lycan Queen Zamboanga sees a tough challenge in the about-to-start ONE atomweight world grand prix and not getting ahead of herself, choosing to take it a step at a time.

Ms. Zamboanga, 24, ONE Championships number one-ranked atomweight contender, will take on Koreas Seo Hee Ham (#5) in the quarterfinals of the highly anticipated fight series on Sept. 3 and is solely focusing on it for now.

Right now, in this tournament, theres a lot of work to be done. I have a very dangerous opponent in Seo Hee Ham, and I am not looking past her, said the Philippine bet in a recent media forum.

This is going to be a good fight. I just want to prove that I am the number one contender to the title again. I am completely focused on this fight, she added.

Ms. Zamboanga has been undefeated in eight professional fights to date, including three in ONE. She last fought in August last year, winning by submission (keylock) in the opening round over Watsapinya Kaewkhong of Thailand.

While she is carrying momentum heading into the grand prix, she recognizes that at the onset of the tournament she is up against a tough competition in 34-year-old Ms. Seo (23-8), who is making her ONE debut, but is a veteran and has fought in different fight promotions, including the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

She said they have been training hard with her team at Marrok Force in Thailand, which includes her brother Drex and coach Fritz Biagtan.

We have studied her (Seo) already and we know what we have to do during the fight, Ms. Zamboanga said.

If she goes past the quarterfinals, Ms. Zamboanga will face in the semifinals either Ukraines Alyona Rassohyna or Stamp of Thailand.

Other grand prix quarterfinal matches have Itsuki Hirata of Japan against American Alyse Anderson, and Meng Bo of China versus Ritu Phogat of India.

The ONE atomweight world grand prix is part of the historic Empower event, which is featuring an all-female fight card, headlined by the strawweight world championship fight between reigning champion Xiong Jing Nan of China and Brazilian challenger Michelle Nicolini.

Meanwhile, the atomweight world grand prix alternate bout between Jenelyn Olsim of the Philippines and Grace Cleveland of the United States is not pushing through as the latter deals with medical issues.

In a lengthy Instagram post, Thai-American Ms. Cleveland said she is very disappointed to announce that she would not be competing in the grand prix as she has been experiencing really bad dizziness for the past month.

She has been consulting different medical experts about her condition and for now, she has deemed it fit to not to compete and risk long-term repercussions. Ms. Cleveland said she still hopes to return to the sport if her health allows her to.

Ms. Olsim of Team Lakay earned a spot in the alternate bout after winning by unanimous decision in a hard-fought fight against Vietnamese-American Bi Nguyen just last Friday. Michael Angelo S. Murillo

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Zamboanga taking it a step at a time in ONE grand prix - BusinessWorld Online

China and Vietnam: the first part of the final stretch on the road to Qatar pits Australia against two of the most improved and interesting teams in Asia. As has been the case for the past 18 months, however, Covid-19 casts a shadow over the qualification for the 2022 World Cup, and will continue to do so until it finishes we hope in March.

The global pandemic meant that the second half of the second round of qualification was delayed for more than a year. By the time it resumed in June, Australia had to play the final four games in Kuwait. As the first four had already been won back in the days of normality, Graham Arnolds men comfortably secured top spot and a place in the third round with China and Vietnam as well as Japan, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Group B starts on Thursday and ends with the top two in the six-team group going to Qatar. Finish third, as Australia did last time around, and the play-offs await.

The ultimate destination is Doha and that is also the venue of Thursdays game against China. It should have been Australia but the countrys strict entry requirements and quarantine inevitably resulted in the game being moved. Football Australia boss James Johnson spoke of the importance of home advantage in World Cup qualification, understandable comments given Australia have never lost a home qualifier since joining Asia in 2006 apart from a dead rubber against China in 2008.

Despite that win, China will be delighted not to head down under. Playing Australia in a quiet stadium in Doha is obviously a much different proposition than Sydney or Melbourne. Team Dragon fancy their chances in West Asia.

For one thing, preparation is top notch. Arnold must look at his opposite number Li Tie with envy. Li does not have to worry about far-flung players as only one of his 23, Wu Lei at Espanyol, is coming from overseas. All the rest spent 12 days in a Shanghai training camp before leaving for Doha last Thursday. The former Everton player does not have to worry about Chinese Super League clubs for the four games in October and November either as the league has been suspended from 15 August to 1 December.

Chinese preparation has, however, been good in the past but this time, the team is different. For one thing, it is a real team, with Li using the ample time with, and proximity to, his players to create a pseudo-club atmosphere and mentality. That was evident in May and June when China, desperate to add a second World Cup appearance to their 2002 effort, rallied from a poor start to qualification to win the last four games.

There has been much written about the financial issues in the Chinese Super League but there has been an upside to the departure of some big foreign names such as Hulk, Paulinho and Renato Augusto (the latter two were allowed to leave as they could not enter the country due to Covid). It has led to more of a focus on domestic-based players with young forwards like Guo Tianyu and Zhang Yuning getting more minutes, more goals and more dangerous.

If China are looking stronger than usual, then that is nothing compared to Vietnam. If the global pandemic means Australia have to give up home advantage in the first game at least, it also means that instead of having to deal with a raucously passionate 40,000 fans in Hanoi, who had been looking forward to a first ever home game at this stage of qualification against a powerhouse, the stands will be empty.

Robbed of their 12th and perhaps even 13th man, there is still plenty of determination in the lowest-ranked team in the group. Vietnam have often had talent before but a greater attention to youth development aided by former Japan and South Africa coach Philippe Troussier has resulted in more and better players like midfielder Nguyen Quang Hai coming through. Many of these grew up together and united the nation in reaching the final of the Asia U-23 Championships in 2018, the last eight of the 2019 Asian Cup and the final stage of qualification for the first time.

The hiring of South Korean coach Park Hang-seo in 2017 has added a harder edge to the previously genial Golden Stars. There is a greater emphasis on the team, on hard work and discipline. In short, a greater emphasis on winning. Not being at this stage before means there is little to no pressure but also little experience at this level especially against a physical side like Australia.

With coronavirus adding uncertainty and levelling playing fields, it has never been more important to pick up early points. For Australia, the final stretch of the road to Qatar starts in Qatar but anything could happen in between.

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China pose real threat as Socceroos hit the road again on journey to Qatar - The Guardian

Berlin, Germany: It has been over 80 years since a Southeast Asian nation appeared at the World Cup. Such a dismal record is partly explained by incompetence and corruption, but now Vietnam is in the final round of qualifying for 2022.

In 1938, Indonesia, then a colony known as Dutch East Indies, appeared at the World Cup. Since then, Southeast Asia, a football-loving region of 650 million people that lies between India to the west and China to the east, has yet to return to the global stage.

While other smaller Asian countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, have appeared at the World Cup, none from the much more passionate and populous football ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region have even come close. South Korea and Japan have regularly profited from high-profile stars, but no Southeast Asian player has ever shot to prominence in Europe's big leagues.

A catalyst for change could be to see a country from the region qualify for the World Cup and capitalize on the platform it affords. Vietnam is aiming to do just that in 2022 as they prepare to appear in the final round of qualification for the World Cup for the first time.

It all starts on September 2 with a tough trip to Saudi Arabia. Millions of fans back home will be cheering on the Golden Stars and many more in the wider region will be watching.

"I have friends from Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia who told me that for obvious reasons of rivalry, the people over there won't exactly be cheering for Vietnam," Dzung Le, former CEO of Vietnamese professional club Pho Hien FC, told DW. "Overall thoughthey will be looking forward to seeing what Vietnam can do."

Historic underachievers

There are a number of reasons why Southeast Asia has underachieved in the game it loves the most. Dzung Le believes that there has historically been a lack of systematic youth development.

"As Thailand pushed for World Cups in the past and Vietnamnow, I think that most of the time, we relied on certain batches of generational talents, rather than the development of football in general."

Ability is not enough, according to Steve Darby, former coach of Vietnam's women's team who has worked in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. The English coach blames past failures partly on those who run the game.

"There is poor planning and preparation. Indonesia with a population of 250 million should be a force but they have chaotic administration," Darby said.

As well as poor leadership, there have also been examples of blatant political interference and corruption. In Malaysia, politicians come with the territory. Despite talk of privatizing clubs, most teams are still funded and operated by state governments and local politicians.

Thailand's most successful team, Buriram United, was set up by Newin Chidchob in 2009, one of the biggest names in Thai politics.

In Indonesia, Golkar party member Nurdin Halid was president of the football federation in 2007 when he was sentenced to two years in prison for embezzlement but incredibly, he was able to keep his job as the person responsible for football in the country.

Vietnam's chances

Vietnam has shown signs of moving away from short-term thinking and has made strides in youth development in recent years. The PVF Youth Football Training Center was named in 2020 as one of the top three academies in Asia by the Asian Football Confederation.

Former Japan and South Africa coach Philippe Troussier worked there until April. In December, 20 players graduated from the academy to join professional football clubs in the country.

"I am the head coach of the Under-19 team so I think I am also an assistant of Park [Hang-seo, the head coach of the senior team]. I wish my team willhave successes like Vietnam's Under-22, Under-23 and national teams in recent years,"Troussier said in 2019.

"Both me and coach Park have a common philosophy. That is to create driving force and desirein footballers."

Park Hang-seo became head coach of Vietnam in 2017 and brought with him a more pragmatic approach.

"Vietnam have improved massively and are now a true team, not just a team relying on individual stars," said Darby. "The reasons being that firstly they have appointed an excellent coach in Park and the federation have not interfered and allowed him to do his job."

2022 possible, 2026 a target

Vietnam is in Group B along with Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, China and Oman. A place in the top two would see them qualify directly for the World Cup but third place means the playoffs against another Asian nation with the winner playing a subsequent game against a team from another confederation.

Getting to Qatar would be massive for Vietnam as well as thewider region. "It will certainly be an inspiration for the generations to come," said Dzung Le. "Economically, sponsorships and investments will definitely pour in, which can be a good chance to develop further."

In Darby's mind, that may be one World Cup too soon.

"My heart wants them to, but my brain says they won't make this World Cup, but they should be planning for 2026," he said.

The 2026 World Cup to be held in North America will be expanded from 32 teams to 48 and Asia's automatic allocation is expected to double to eight. This means that Southeast Asia can expect a return to the World Cup in 2026. But for 2022, Vietnam provide hope.

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Vietnam looking to take Southeast Asia back to the World Cup I Times of Oman - Times of Oman