The Turkish state entered Jarablus on 24 of 2016. This area was occupied by ISIS in 2014. The Turkish army officially entered the area only in 2016.
The entry of the Turkish state into the region coincided with the liberation of Manbij by the Syrian Democratic Forces from ISIS mercenaries. In fact, the liberation of Manbij by the Syrian Democratic Forces put the operation to liberate Jarablus, which was under ISIS occupation at the time, on the agenda. As a result, the Turkish state moved quickly and considered the occupation of the region a necessity for it.
It was even waiting for Kobani to fall into the hands of ISIS during the 2014 attacks, but despite all the support of the Turkish state, Kobani resisted against ISIS, and what Erdogan predicted did not happen. In other words, Kobani did not fall. On the contrary, the resistance escalated and became the beginning of the end of ISIS.
After Jarablus, it was Azaz's turn, then Marei', and finally, it was Al-Bab's turn in 2017.
Occupation attacks on Afrin
With the occupation of the Jarabulus-Al-Bab line, the Turkish state became the de facto occupying power in Syria. However, it was not able to block the path of the common resistance front of the peoples that advanced under the leadership of the Kurds and adopted by the peoples of the world.
Erdogan saw this situation, formed the mercenaries, and strengthened them as an alternative to ISIS - Al-Nusra. But the result did not change either. For this reason, on January 21, 2018, the city of Afrin was targeted, and the war of extermination began an extensive attack against the region.
Erdogan has turned his back on Russia and the United States of America, and despite NATO's support, it has faced continuous resistance for two months at a time. The fighting expanded to Afrin.
They targeted all places with airstrikes, even schools, hospitals and homes.
The Turkish state adopted the deadliest mercenary organizations, trained them, provided them with weapons, and began hunting down the Kurds. They were trying to flip the facts with the lie "There is a threat on our borders". Once again, the international powers made the Kurds a victim of their interests. They ignored the Turkish state's moves with the bloodiest modern organizations and attacked Afrin.
After they submitted Afrin to the Turkish state; Russia's dominance over Turkey escalated. The Turkish state took another step to exterminate the Kurds, but it was more closely linked to Russia.
Afrin from a geo-strategic and political point of view
Of course, there were reasons that made Afrin important to the Turkish state. It is located in the far north of Syria on the border with Turkey, and was a separate area from the Jazira and Euphrates regions. That is why Erdogan's statement that he "will perform Friday prayers in the Umayyad Mosque" was important. In the east, it occupied the Jarabulus-Al-Bab line, and turned it into a military base for the Turkish army to exit from it to the Bar-Rojava line and beyond.
The capture of Afrin was of great strategic importance for Damascus as well, as Erdogan was planning to perform Friday prayers in the Umayyad Mosque. That is, he was trying to occupy it. The Turkish state occupied Afrin and united it with Jarabulus in the east, and it was going to go to the north of Aleppo more through the al-Shahba region, and then it was going to Idlib, which controls the southwest, and it was going to unite the two cities together, this was what was calculated.
But despite the fact that Afrin fell under Turkish occupation; They did not allow the Turkish state to pass to al-Shahba, and the Resistance of the Age continued in its second phase.
Mercenaries settled in Idlib... Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh resisted and ended the occupation
Before the Turkish state occupied Afrin, it deployed its forces in many Syrian regions; To reach Aleppo and Damascus within the framework of the 'training and arming plan' with America. The goal of the Turkish state was to lay the foundation of the occupation through the 'proxy war' and to bring down the Syrian regime at the hands of the mercenaries of ISIS and Al-Nusra, who were composed of al-Qaeda mercenaries, and to make these mercenaries control northern and eastern Syria, get Aleppo and Damascus, and then divide Syria according to its whims.
Even if you fail, at least you will not let the Kurds win
Erdogan achieved what he wanted on the ground, albeit in small proportions, but the common struggle of the peoples led by the Kurds against the mercenary organizations was the main factor in thwarting the accounts that were made on Syria.
Erdogan saw this, and this time he turned to the Kurds completely, and with the support of Russia, the United States of America and NATO occupied Afrin.
Erdogan's plan was that if he could not pray in the Umayyad Mosque and liquidate the Assad regime; It will certainly not let the Kurds achieve political recognition in the region.
The other factor that thwarted Erdogans plans was years before the planning of the occupation of Afrin, which was the resistance that emerged in the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighborhoods in Aleppo. This resistance, which developed as a people's war, did not allow the occupation of the region by mercenaries supported by Turkey.
Despite the occupation of Afrin and the linking of Idlib to Afrin through Darat Izza and Jindires, the al-Shahba-Tal Rifaat line, which is located north of Aleppo, remained under the control of the Kurdish forces, and did not allow the occupation to expand from Jarabulus and al-Bab towards Aleppo and Idlib from the east-west and north-south sides.
This cut the way for the movement of the Turkish state and its mercenaries, but it created a barrier for the Syrian regime against the possible attacks of the Turkish occupation. The continuous resistance of the Kurdish forces in this area until now gives the Syrian regime a great gain for the siege of Idlib and the attacks against the Turkish mercenaries.
Tel Rifaat
There is no doubt that Tel Rifaat is one of the places that have become a target for possible occupation attacks in the recent period. The question in this case is why Tal Rifaat?
Tal Rifaat, an area west of Marea. It is also located north of Azaz, occupied by the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation, and is of strategic importance to Iran, such as the cities of Nubl and Al-Zahra. Taking control of Tal Rifaat means besieging al-Shahba on the one hand and strangling the forces linked to Iran in the Nubl and al-Zahra areas.
If the Turkish state captured Tel Rifaat, it would almost certainly besiege Aleppo via Nubl and al-Zahra. Thus, Aleppo will be encircled from the west via Idlib, from the east to al-Bab, and from the north through Tal Rifaat and al-Shahba. This is the plan.
The Turkish state, which controls all these areas, will strengthen itself in Idlib on the one hand, and threaten the Iranian presence in the region on the one hand, and when it besieges Aleppo, it will head to Manbij through al-Bab, Marea, and Jarabulus, and this will be easier for it.
Therefore, this matter will not only enhance the role of the Turkish state in the future of Syria, but will at the same time limit the role of the Damascus government and Russia as well. This situation will be a gift from God to Erdogan, who has been very weak in negotiations with Russia in recent years; Because of the issue of withdrawal from Idlib. Of course, if you achieve what you want.
The other goal of the occupation; Manbij
One of the important sites and regions that Erdogan has targeted several times is Manbij.
Manbij is now surrounded by the Turkish state. To its east lies the Euphrates River, Kobani and the Euphrates region.
The importance of Manbij lies in the fact that it is located at the intersection of northern and eastern Syria and the Afrin-Aleppo road. And because the M4 trade route passes through Manbij, this increases the importance of the city. The occupied Turkish state will also be concentrated more in the areas of Jarabulus, Azaz, Marea and Al-Bab. But the issue is not only the seizure of Manbij, it also means the besieging of Kobani from the west. That is why Manbij is always targeted by the Turkish state, for trade on the one hand, and in order to reach new areas from the east-west side, and to strengthen the occupied areas. Without a doubt, Manbij is at the same time a great commercial city.
Erdogan's great heartbreak, Kobani
Kobani is of great political importance; Because ISIS was defeated for the first time in 2014. Regardless of its symbolic importance; Kobani is also important on the geostrategic level.
Kobani is located in the north, on the borders of Suruj, in its east, Gir Spi, in its west, and Jarabulus in its north.
The reason why the Turkish state targeted Kobani, as ISIS did previously, is that it is an intersection point west and east of the Euphrates, and because the M4 road is located to the south of it, which is the most important trade route in Syria.
It is now besieged from the northwest from the direction of Jarabulus and from the side of Gire Spi in the east.
The occupation of Kobani will link Jarabulus and Gir Sp and separate the east and west of the Euphrates, and at the same time mean besieging Ain Issa from the west and controlling a section of the M4 road. But the other factor that makes Kobani important is, as we mentioned at the beginning of the paragraph, that it is the place where ISIS was defeated for the first time in 2014. This is also seen as a major blow to Erdogans plans in Syria, and in this way it becomes the reason for the continuous attack on him. This is why Kobani is Erdogan's biggest regret.
Ain Issa
Ain Issa is one of the areas that the Turkish state threatens to attack after the attacks it launched on Gire Seri and Serkaniy.
Gir Sp surrounds Ain Issa in the north, and it is bordered by Kobani to the northwest, Sirin to the west, Raqqa to the south, and the M4 road to the east.
The possible attack of the occupation of Ain Issa will cut the road between Al Jazeera and the Euphrates, in addition to cutting the road between Kobani, Raqqa and Tabqa.
Before the occupation of Serkaniy and Gir Sp, Ain Issa was the center of the Autonomous Administration, and it is a defensive area for Raqqa from the northern side.
Tal Tamr
Another area where the occupation attacks have not stopped since 2019 is Tal Tamr.
Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs and Armenians live in Tal Tamr, one of the most diverse places. But the geographical importance of Tel Tamer for the region is that it is located on the connecting roads towards the two large cities of Hasaka and Qamishlo.
The M4 commercial road passes from this side of al-Hasakah, which is located west of Ain Issa and on the border of the Euphrates region.
The main objective of the Turkish state's attack on Tal Tamr is to control this area. And the separation between the regions of the island and the Euphrates and control of the trade road M4. If Tal Tamr is occupied, Al-Hasakah will be surrounded, as will Al-Darbasiyah and Amuda.
The result
The plan to occupy the mentioned areas aims to control the entire area. It is intended to sever relations between the regions, and then target another region that remains unprotected. They want to divide it first, and then occupy the whole area.
But although Turkey may have developed such a plan in line with it, it must be known that the war has not stopped for a single day, especially since the occupation of Gir Spi and Sere Kani. The struggle that was waged at this stage and the experience that was drawn from the occupation attacks made the region more powerful and resistant.
It appeared that if the Turkish state attacked one of these areas, it would face great resistance, as this appeared in the resistance in the Ain Issa and Tal Tamr fronts. Therefore, there is the possibility of a new war that may result in the expulsion of Turkey from the occupied areas. In fact, it is not possible for Turkey to launch a comprehensive attack on these areas without the consent of Russia and the United States of America, which control the region's airspace. Even if a possible attack is approved, the atmosphere in the region will undoubtedly be different from the 2018 operations in Afrin and 2019 in Gir Sp and Serkaniy, as the Turkish state and the remaining remnants of mercenaries from ISIS and Nusra will be defeated.
(NS)
ANHA
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