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As predictions go, you could do worse in forecasting the issues that defined this year than what those two men were focused on: Attempting to overthrow American democracy and struggling to contain the pandemic. 2021 in a nutshell, before it even began.

With the year (blessedly) behind us, its time again for a treasured POLITICO Magazine tradition: a rundown of some of the worst predictions of 2021. Some are cocksure and smug; others have a tragic air of obsessiveness (cough, Mike Lindell, cough); still others were totally fair and reasonable predictions at the time, but the world spun in a different direction than it once seemed. Here, more than two dozen predictions about 2021 that were, well, bad.

Everythings going to be fine in the last few weeks of the Trump administration

Predicted by: Hugh Hewitt, Jan. 6

On the morning of Jan. 6, conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt appeared on Megyn Kellys podcast and was asked a question on the minds of seemingly every political observer in America: Joe Bidens going to get certified [as president-elect] today. What does Trump do over the next two weeks before the inauguration? I mean, hes still going to be saying what hes saying about the electoral process, and theres a big rally in D.C. today, but what do you think we can expect?

Hewitt responded by predicting a raft of new pardons before turning to the broader concern about the peaceful transfer of power: I would just say to everybody: It will be fine. Everythings going to be fine, he said as Kelly voiced her agreement.

A few hours later, a violent pro-Trump putsch at the U.S. Capitol disrupted the peaceful transfer of power and dragged the nation to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Everything was not fine.

Predicted by: Scott Adams, July 1, 2020

There are a few reasons you might recognize the name Scott Adams. Perhaps you know him from his repeat appearances on these annual worst predictions lists (e.g. that Trump, Biden and Bernie Sanders would all contract Covid by election day 2020 and one would die). If youre of a certain age, maybe you remember Dilbert, the 90s cartoon icon he created that satirized corporate office culture in the years before Office Space. Or, if youre part of the political cognoscenti in the broader Trump era, you might know him as a self-described expert in the rhetorical dark arts who has spun that ability into a second act as a MAGA-adjacent political commentator with a large online following.

But unlike many prominent voices of that persuasion, he exudes a calm clarity in his thinking as if what he says is the natural outgrowth of a deliberative process which gives his predictions a certain dispassionate confidence, as if they are closer to scientific fact than wishcasting or doomsaying.

For instance, on July 1, 2020, Adams made this prediction about American life in 2021 with Joe Biden in the White House: If Biden is elected, theres a good chance you will be dead within the year. Lest you think he was talking about, say, the potential mismanagement of the pandemic or some natural disaster, Adams clarified what he meant in two further tweets: Republicans will be hunted. Police will stand down.

We are nearly a full year into Bidens presidency. Police have not stood down. In fact, many cities have increased funding for police. Republicans, far from being hunted, have made major electoral gains and stand poised to retake at least one house of Congress next year. There are no killing fields. There has been no purge.

Predicted by: St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board, Aug. 3

When Bush staged a sleep-in on the steps of the Capitol to protest the lapse of the pandemic-era eviction ban, her hometown St. Louis Post-Dispatch published an editorial that reads like a pat on the head of the freshman Missouri congresswoman and liberal Squad member.

Bush clearly misunderstands the complicated process required to restore the moratorium, they wrote. As with many progressive ideals, righteous-sounding aspirations never seem to take into account political reality. Bush tweeted a demand that President Joe Biden extend the eviction moratorium and that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer force legislative action. Its as if she believes those three can wave their wands and magically make things better.

Later that same day, Biden announced a new 60-day eviction moratorium prompted by pressure and coverage generated by Bushs TV-ready protest. With her antics, she had changed political reality. Even as the ban ended weeks later after being struck down by the Supreme Court, it came about not through magic, but real-world politics.

Predicted by: President Joe Biden, July 8

Last summer, as U.S. forces withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban steadily regained territory throughout the country, Biden held a press conference where he was asked about the historical echoes some veterans of the Vietnam War saw between the fall of Saigon and the Afghanistan pullout. Asked if he saw parallels between the two events, Biden who, by the way, was a U.S. senator when Saigon fell in spring 1975 was insistent.

The Taliban is not the South the North Vietnamese army. Theyre not theyre not remotely comparable in terms of capability, he said. Theres going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable. The likelihood theres going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.

Just over one month later, in mid-August, Chinook helicopters airlifted Americans from the U.S. Embassy in Kabul as it evacuated. The Taliban surrounded and retook Kabul; it is now fully in control of the government of Afghanistan.

Predicted by: Chuck Schumer, March 10

Nope. The Covid bill passed, checks went into pockets, shots went into arms and the political benefit for Democrats has been minimal. Politics hasnt changed drastically, and it certainly doesnt seem like the pro-autocracy movement has been put to bed in any way.

Predicted by: Kevin McCarthy, April 28

Ahh, the early days of the Biden administration pre-Afghanistan pullout, pre-Delta wave, pre-vaccine mandate when the presidents poll numbers were strong and Republicans flailed about for an issue, any issue, that could provide a political foothold. Banning Dr. Seuss. No? Going to war against Major League Baseball? No? What about meat? Yes, thats the ticket.

Heres what happened: in late April, after Biden vowed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by half, Fox News and its sister channels went to work promoting the falsehood that Biden was going to effectively ban meat, as PolitiFact extensively documented. Their promotion of that deception led House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy to reflect their outrage back at them: On April 28, he appeared on Hannity and confidently predicted that the Biden administration is gonna control how much meat you can eat. That is, of course, not the case: Biden did not ban meat, nor is he controlling how much animal protein you consume, nor is any plan in motion to do that.

Here, a quick clarification may be useful: Theres a difference between a falsehood and a bad prediction. A falsehood is something presented as fact when it is not. A bad prediction is a forward-looking, if ultimately incorrect, assertion about how the future will play out. What McCarthy said is both.

Predicted by: Mike Lindell, many times

March 26: All the evidence I have everything is going to go before the Supreme Court, and the election of 2020 is going bye-bye. Donald Trump will be back in office in August.

March 30: I said Donald Trump will be in [the White House] in August. And I fully believe that myself: hell be back in.

May 25: Donald Trump will be back in by the end of August.

June 2: These are facts: We have a clear path to pull this election down. [On the Supreme Court,] itll be 9-0 down comes the election, and in August, here comes Donald Trump.

June 5: [On the August prediction] I could be off by a month or so, I dont know.

July 4: By the morning of August 13, itll be the talk of the world, going Hurry up! Lets get this election pulled down. Lets get these communists out, you know, [who] have taken over.

Aug. 21: Its Trump 2021, 100 percent: Trump 2021. This election, when it does get pulled down, there were so many down-ticket [races] affected, maybe the Supreme Court, theyll just do a whole new election.

Sept. 21: I made a promise to this country that with all the evidence I have that we would get it to the Supreme Court. And I predicted they would vote 9-0 to look at the evidence. Originally, I had hoped for August and September. We will have this before the Supreme Court before Thanksgiving. Thats my promise to the people of this country.

Sept. 24: Were giving everything all the evidence I have [to] the Supreme Court. That will be done before Thanksgiving. Thats in stone.

Nov. 7: [The Supreme Court is] going to accept it 9-0. It will require a new election across the board. [Theyll] declare the 2020 vote void and order new elections across the board.

Nov. 17: One week from today, on Nov. 23, the states are suing the U.S. government at the Supreme Court. Its over!

Dec. 17: [On the timeline for his long-promised 9-0 Supreme Court case] It was gonna be today; it switched out til Monday.

Lets be clear: Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election. He lost by every possible measure. He lost the national popular vote (which doesnt decide who wins). He lost the Electoral College (which does). He lost the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He lost each of them by margins far too large to even possibly be changed by voter fraud. He and his allies lost 61 state and federal lawsuits related to the election results. His claims of widespread fraud or a stolen election are baseless and themselves fraudulent. He has no rightful claim to the presidency.

And yet, Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO-turned conspiracy theorist, continues to predict, despite reality, that the election results will be deemed illegitimate, thrown out, and that somehow, this will make Trump the White Houses rightful occupant. How would this work? Unclear. Even if the election were somehow dismissed, why would Trump be given the office? Also unclear. When will this occur? Perpetually, someday soon.

What Lindell has done repeatedly and confidently predicting Trumps return to office time after time, missed deadline after missed deadline isnt just moving the goalposts; its well, metaphors fail. Its moving the whole damn field. Its changing the sport entirely. Its inventing a new game that only he can win, and then managing to lose said game, repeatedly.

Predicted by: Robert McCartney (among many, many, many others), Jan. 1

On Jan. 1, when Washington Post columnist Robert McCartney published his 11th annual predictions quiz about the year ahead, he gave readers six options from which to correctly select the next governor of Virginia. Who would it be? Could Virginia make history by electing a Black woman, like Democratic state Sen. Jennifer McClellan or former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy? Would scandal-plagued Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax improbably resurrect his career after sexual assault allegations? Perhaps a Republican lawmaker, like former state House Speaker Kirk Cox, or the Trumpy state Sen. Amanda Chase?

No. The next governor, McCartney wrote, would be Terry McAuliffe, as Bidens 2020 victory showed theres still plenty of appetite for an old White guy. In November, of course, McAuliffe lost to someone who wasnt even on the list: Republican Glenn Youngkin.

Predicted by: Karl Rove, Feb. 11

Predicted by: John Kerry, April 27

Predicted by: Anthony Scaramucci, May 15

Apparently, fomenting a violent uprising against the government isnt a deal-breaker. With his grip on the GOP still tight, the partys nomination is certainly Trumps if he wants it. And this month, polls on a potential presidential election between Trump and Biden show a tight race: Biden up by 1 (Wall Street Journal, Dec. 7); Biden up by 3 (Echelon Insights, Dec. 14); Trump up by 3 (Harris, Dec. 6). By all appearances, Trump is certainly capable of running in 2024 and winning.

Predicted by: Sean Duffy, Jan. 2

When, on Jan. 2, Watters World guest host Dan Bongino asked Duffy, a former Real World castmate-turned-Wisconsin GOP congressman-turned-Fox News personality, for his predictions for the year ahead, there was not a moments hesitation: Listen, my crystal ball tells me that youre going to have a continued cognitive decline for Joe Biden. By the end of 2021, Kamala Harris will be the president.

Right now, it is Dec. 24, and while Ill concede that it is possible that the next six days bring some truly Earth-shattering news, Biden is still the president. Has his fastball lost some of its zip as hes aged? Sure. Whose doesnt? But there is nothing to suggest anything in the realm of debilitating cognitive decline. And as 2021 ends, Harris is not only not the president, shes been the subject of much critical coverage that has fanned doubts about whether she could ever really be the president.

Predicted by: Donald Trump, Oct. 22, 2020

You can doubt the strength of the Biden economy, debate whether or not the inflation weve experienced is transitory and question all the various statistics trotted out to prove this or that. But its a simple fact that the economy is not in a depression. Its not even in a recession.

Since Biden took office, the unemployment rate has dropped from 6.3 percent to 4.2 percent; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has grown by roughly 14 percent; the S&P 500 is up roughly 21 percent; Americas gross domestic product grew by 7.8 percent over the first three quarters of 2021, even when adjusted for inflation. If thats a depression, then what would be the appropriate term for the economy at the end of the Trump presidency?

Predicted by: Tom Ricks, June 24

In his tweet, Ricks conceded that it was a reckless prediction, but at the time, maybe it didnt seem too crazy. The economy was improving, the pandemic seemed to be receding.

Two months later, the botched Afghanistan withdrawal began to slash away at Bidens ratings. The political fallout from the debacle punctuated by horrific violence, humanitarian disaster and scores of deaths continues to be an albatross on the Biden administration.

By Labor Day, in FiveThirtyEights average, Bidens approval sat at 46.1 percent; his disapproval was 48.3 percent. It was the end of the first full week of the Biden presidency where his approval was underwater. Its been there ever since.

Predicted by: Nate Silver, Aug. 23

There was a time this summer when it appeared that the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom might actually win polls tightened substantially in early August, sparking the typical apocalyptics from the blue-check Twitterati. Pretty decent chance Newsom gets recalled, FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver tweeted before jumping to explain how this reality revealed the foolishness of Dems strategy of not putting forward a potential Newsom successor on question two on the recall ballot: Democrats could potentially keep the seat if they urged their voters to consolidate behind an alternative Democrat but instead theyre telling them not to vote on the replacement!

Come September, Newsom defeated the recall with 62 percent of the vote. And Dems strategy of not consolidating behind an alternative candidate helped Newsom make the vote an up-or-down choice between him and Republican frontrunner Larry Elder rather than giving Democratic voters a viable option on question two (which mightve sweetened the prospect of voting yes on question one).

Silver might take issue with our call that his odds-making counts as a wrong prediction, but the fact is, Newsom ultimately won handily. And his strategy paid off.

Predicted by: Brett Arends, Jan. 22

Predicted by: Myles Udland, Dec. 16, 2020

Turns out there was a reason to worry about inflation. By October, the year-over-year inflation rate was the highest since 1990. By November, it was the highest since 1982. Between January and this writing, the chatter among economists has evolved: It was something you probably didnt need to be worried about. Then it was transitory. Now, it is maybe not so temporary. Hard to tell.

The issue has badly disrupted the first year of the Biden administration, and has a quality not unlike a beach ball in a swimming pool: Try as you might to wrestle it down, it pops back up to the surface over and over again, stubborn to your every effort.

Predicted by: Jamelle Bouie (among many, many others), July 7

In July, my colleague Maya King reported on a trend in suburban Virginia: Tense school board meetings populated by growing numbers of parents angry about the supposed teaching of critical race theory often used by ideological conservatives as a shorthand for how race and social issues are taught in K-12 public schools, even as Loudoun County school officials insisted that the theory was not actually being taught. Could a School-Board Fight Over Critical Race Theory Help Turn Virginia Red?, the headline read.

No, responded Jamelle Bouie, a New York Times columnist who lives in Virginia. The idea, he continued, was an extremely credulous take on Republican wishcasting. (Worth noting: That wasnt an entirely unreasonable assumption, coming four years after stories asked aloud whether fears about the MS-13 gang would spur Republicans to retake the governors mansion.)

It wasnt. Come November, Republicans won the elections for Virginia governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, and regained control of the state House. Was the critical race theory backlash the sole reason why? No. But it appears to have played a substantial role in winning Youngkin the election.

By promising at nearly every campaign stop to ban critical race theory Youngkin resurrected Republican race-baiting tactics in a state that once served as the capital of the Confederacy, wrote the Times Lisa Lerer. It was, wrote the Times Trip Gabriel, his best known pledge embodying the anger that drove the grass roots. And, in a tidy answer to the question posed in the headline of Mayas piece, USA Todays Ledyard King and Mabinty Quarshie reported that the issue sparked a movement that help[ed] turn Virginia from blue to red last month.

Predicted by: Dana Perino, Jan. 4; Matt Grossmann, Nov. 9, 2020; et al

Its an understandable assumption: Georgia has been going hard for Republicans for decades, and a reasonable observer might imagine that the GOP would have the edge in the Jan. 5 run-offs. Down-ticket, Republicans in the state performed strongly in the November elections: While Trump lost to Biden by about 0.3 points in the state, David Perdue led Jon Ossoff by 1.8 points on the same ballot. The states other Senate seat had just undergone an inconclusive jungle primary in which nobody received more than one-third of the vote; but in her bid to defeat Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler was buoyed by a vast fortune and the reality that the Deep South had elected only one Black man to the U.S. Senate since Reconstruction (Tim Scott in neighboring South Carolina). Plus, without Trump on the ballot, Democratic voters might be less inclined to turn out to vote against him.

Nope. With Black voters coming out in huge numbers for Democrats and Republican turnout depressed after Trumps incessant, and false, claims of election fraud, something surprising happened. Warnock and Ossoff won, and delivered Democrats the narrowest possible majority in the U.S. Senate.

Predicted by: Jason Chaffetz, Jan. 2

This one was a bit of Republican wishcasting. Chaffetz, the former GOP congressman from Utah, predicted on the night of Jan. 2 that Nancy Pelosi whose mastery at vote-counting has kept her atop House Democratic leadership for 20 years now would somehow lack the votes to be elected speaker the following day, despite a Democratic majority.

The result was entirely predictable: Pelosi had the votes. Of the 427 members of the House at the time, 216 supported her a margin comfortable enough that a handful of House Democrats from swing seats were free to vote for someone other than her.

Predicted by: G. Elliott Morris, April 25

In fairness, this was not a bad prediction when it was made: Polls throughout the spring showed overwhelming support for Bidens plan to withdraw from Afghanistan.

But by Bidens Sept. 11 deadline, the chaotic U.S. pullout had destabilized his presidency, calling into question the core claims of competence that had long been Bidens ballast.

Its possible that over the long arc of history, Morris prediction will turn out to be correct. But at this point, the pullout was extraordinarily politically damaging for Bidens presidency.

Predicted by: Ben Weingarten, Dec. 30, 2020

A week out from the Georgia Senate run-offs, Benjamin Weingarten, a contributor to the Federalist, appeared on Fox News The Ingraham Angle and laid bare what would happen if Ossoff and Warnock defeated Perdue and Loeffler, delivering Democrats a 50-50 Senate majority. If the Democrats take these two seats, its a guarantee of socialism in this country because youll have D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood. Youll have mass amnesty. Youll have socialized medicine. Youll have the evisceration of the vote integrity.

Two things:

One: A 50-50 Senate could never be read as a mandate for any policy at the ideological extremes of American politics, including socialism. The very nature of the Senate, where members of the minority party have enormous power to block legislation, makes it exceptionally difficult to enact any major policy change.

Two: Clearly, the man has never met Joe Manchin. D.C. statehood? Opposed to it. Puerto Rican statehood? Non-committal. Socialized medicine? Hardly: The man opposed expanding Medicare to cover dental care. Forget socialism; they cant even pass Build Back Better.

Predicted by: Amy Siskind, Jan. 2

Amid the run-up to Jan. 6 as Republican senators like Missouris Josh Hawley announced that theyd object to the count of electoral votes from certain swing states that Biden carried, as pro-Trump die-hards planned a massive rally with the goal of pressuring Congress to essentially discard the results of a democratic election, and as the Big Lie about the 2020 vote metastasized within the Republican electorate a certain amount of (understandable) anxiety percolated among liberals and moderates on Twitter.

Amy Siskind, who rose to online prominence in the early days of the Trump administration by recording and listing out the norms being broken on a weekly basis, was one of the relatively few major voices on #Resistance Twitter urging calm.

Anyone worried about Jan 6 impacting the election dont be, she tweeted on the night of Jan. 2. Its nothing more than a seditious stunt that will go nowhere. Then, a follow-up: If you live in DC, stay off the streets on Jan 6. Let the DC police take care of the white supremacists like they did in Oregon yesterday. I actually think it will be fun to watch lol.

What ultimately happened on Jan. 6, of course, was a brazen attack on both democratic institutions and the democratic process itself: a mob of pro-Trump extremists assaulted police officers, broke into the U.S. Capitol building, called for the hanging of Vice President Mike Pence (and, broadly, heads on pikes), defiled the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (among others), sent staffers and members into hiding for hours, took over the floor of the U.S. Senate, caused law enforcement to draw their weapons and barricade the entrance to the House chamber, led to the use of lethal force against a pro-Trump rioter who attempted to enter the Speakers lobby as members fled, and halted the counting of electoral votes for several hours until armed forces could secure the Capitol complex. Fun to watch lol? Not so much.

Predicted by: David Fegan (among others), Jan. 8

After a half-decade during which @realDonaldTrumps every missive was mainlined into the bloodstream of American politics, it was hard to imagine Twitter without him. Then, two days after the Jan. 6 attack, Twitter permanently blocked him. Suddenly, @realDonaldTrump was no more. And after a couple days, it was not at all hard to imagine Twitter without him. Nearly a year later, Twitters still going strong.

Predicted by: Duncan Ross (among others), Jan. 3

Spoiler alert: Trump remained in office until Biden took the oath on Jan. 20.

Predicted by: Paul Strand, Feb. 17

Many progressives wish he would. But Biden has made no move to expand the court, and his blue-ribbon commission to study the issue did not endorse the idea.

Predicted by: Fortune Magazine, Dec. 2020

Theres a consensus that after 20 years at the helm of the Democratic Party in Congress, Pelosi is nearing the end of her career. That much seems obvious. But there are two big x-factors about her remaining time leading Democrats: when shell step aside, and who her successor will be.

The rest is here:
The Worst Political Predictions of 2021 - POLITICO

On October 1, 2019, young Iraqis took to the streets to protest corruption, ineffective government, and a lack of prospects. Initially, Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdis government responded with deadly force. Iranian-backed militias fired into the crowds, killing at least 600. Crowds grew alongside Iraqis outrage at such tactics. Ultimately, Abdul-Mahdi resigned.

After several false starts, Iraqi political bosses settled on Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former human rights researcher and journalist whom Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had appointed to lead the Iraqi National Intelligence Services (INIS) in 2016 against the backdrop of the fight against the Islamic State. For the Iraqi political elite, Kadhimi was a safe choice: He remained clean in a system where corruption predominated, had good ties with everyone from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani to Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani and, at the INIS, proved himself a competent manager. As important for the political leaders who settled on Kadhimi as a transitional leader, he was boring. In a sea of flamboyant personalities, he was uncharismatic. He was also weak politically and had no permanent bloc of support in parliament.

Kadhimis authority instead rested on a mission: End Iraqs dysfunction, oversee fundamental reforms, and guide Iraq through new elections.

More than a year-and-a-half into his transitional leadership, Kadhimi failed.

Granted, the cards the system dealt him were always poor. Iraqs electoral system was long problematic. Coalition Provisional Authority administrator L. Paul Bremer and UN officials agreed to elections governed by both proportional representation and candidacy based on party lists rather than constituencies. Their goal: speed. But the long-term instability the system encouraged was obvious: candidates owed political survival to party bosses rather than accountability to constituents. As potential candidates sought to ingratiate themselves to the political bosses who would order the lists, they competed to be more ethnic chauvinist or sectarian than their peers. While Iraqis subsequently tinkered with the system to vote on a governorate rather than national basis, the same dynamic remained.

After the eruption of protests and Abdul-Mahdis resignation, President Barham Salih proposed core reforms that, if implemented, would have helped stabilize Iraq. Kadhimi did not use his bully pulpit or his moral authority to shepherd them through, however; Instead, parliamentarians elected under the old system that encouraged patronage and corruption eviscerated the reforms beyond any real meaning. Today, the same Iraqi political bosses engage in the same horse-trading that enriches and empowers themselves but abandons the Iraqis they claim to represent.

Kadhimi need not have been so weak. Even without a parliamentary bloc, he entered office at a tremendous moment with many ordinary Iraqis backing him as their last hope. At the same time, the traditional political elites backs were against the wall as the protest movement terrified them. He might have used that to his power, but Kadhimi squandered the opportunity as ambition took root. Resignation can be liberating, but Kadhimi wanted to remain. Reforms might antagonize the political leaders whose support he needed to remain in his position post-election and so rather than confront Barzani, for example, he approached him with obsequity. Rather than quash the practices that antagonize ordinary Iraqisfor example, the self-dealing and enrichment that comes with government officials rewarding themselves with land grant bonuses worth millions, Kadhimi continues the practice blind to the optics. Today, he has lost the street. Fully-geared riot police eying idle youth just outside the international zone is not a good look for a reformist.

The White House and intelligence community might appreciate Kadhimis promise to take on Iranian-backed militias but, behind the scenes, he has been nearly as permissive to them as his predecessors were. Demonstrations and even assassination attempts define redlines Kadhimi is loath to cross. The greater problem undercutting Kadhimis efforts to reign in such threats to Iraqi sovereignty is not fear, but ambition: To take on Iran too much would undercut his hope to win the approval of those political movements that Tehran backed. In effect, it was a game of charades in which rhetoric changed, but not reality.

Kadhimi says correctly that he entered office with one of the poorest hands of any recent prime minister. Abadi had focused his tenure on careful reform in order to build a base for investment and growth. Whereas in 2003, Iraq had a population of 25 million, by 2014 when he took over from Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqs population was approaching 35 million. Abadis chief of staff Naufel Alhassan warned presciently about the dangers caused by Iraqs inflated payroll and its inability to provide non-oil sector jobs.

Abdul-Mahdis team did not care. As oil prices increased, he tossed reforms out the window and handed out civil service jobs like candy. In just his single year in office, for example, his electricity minister added tens of thousands of jobs to the permanent payroll, with no sustainable way to pay for them and without any appreciable improvement in services.

Kadhimi had to scramble to make payroll in order to offset the shortfalls left him by Abdul-Mahdis incompetence, if not his teams theft. Today, Kadhimi often brags to visitors that he has increased the proportion of non-oil sector revenue, but his team tightly holds the numbers to back this claim; many Iraqi economists say it is just a line spun to assuage visiting diplomats and analysts. His government did inherit from Allawi and then release a detailed economic white paper which outlined sixty-four separate reform projects and highlighted what each ministry must do and under what timeline to achieve reform. While Kadhimi continues to pay lip service to reform, he hesitates to go further because to do so might antagonize the entrenched interests whose support he now wants as his mission shifts from reform to extending his tenure.

What saves Kadhimiand the system he headsis today not successful reform but high oil prices. Meanwhile, the population continues to grow. By 2025, Iraqi will have more than 45 million; by the end of this decade, it will surpass 50 million. There remains no real sovereign wealth fund nor reduction of the civil service to sustainable levels. Should the price of oil drop from $70 per barrel to $30, the system will crash. The question is now not if but when. Extraction of oil is becoming cheaper and new fields coming online each year. Chinas populationand thirst for oilwill soon peak given the demographic effects of more than three decades of its one-child policy. As Chinas population declines and with it the economic growth the demographic dividend brings, Beijing might also turn inward to fracking and other domestic energy sources. Nor does any of this discussion address the fact that a growing embrace of alternative energies undercuts the energy primacy that Iraq and its neighbors once enjoyed. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are all diversifying their economies; Iraqi leaders prefer to play political games for individual gain.

The events of October 2019 were a warning shot. Outrage motivated the protestors. They claimed Abdul-Mahdi as a victim but were willing to give Iraqs leaders a chance to reform. Kadhimi has now squandered that opportunity. As Iraqs population fast approaches the 50 million mark and Iraqi youth take to the streets again, they will not again accept that the problem was personality rather than system. The next revolution will be violent and will not differentiate much between parties. It will lead to a migration crisis, much like Iraqi Kurdistans kleptocracy faces, and a wholesale ouster of Iraqs current political leadership into early graves or exile. The Biden White House can continue to approach Iraqi politics like a game of musical chairs, but it is today missing the big picture.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also regularly teaches classes at sea about Middle East conflicts, culture, terrorism, and the Horn of Africa to deployed U.S. Navy and Marine units. You can follow him on Twitter: @mrubin1971.

Image: Reuters.

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Iraq's Dysfunction Will End in Revolution - The National Interest

The devastation caused by man to the environment is no longer a secret; nature is striking back painfully, after decades of warnings by scientists of a catastrophic future that requires quick, radical solutions. There is no more room for procrastination in the face of hurricanes, floods, rising temperatures, desertification, drying up of agricultural lands, forest fires, greenhouse gases and air pollution.

In recent years, the dangers of climate change top of the list of problems and preoccupations in most countries, whether in the first, second or third worlds. In the face of the wrath of nature, the borders separating countries are collapsing, with increasing rapidity in third world countries in particular. It is true that the catastrophic repercussions are affecting everyone, but the third world, including Arab states, bears the greatest burden. Not because the wrath of nature chooses it over America and Europe, of course, but for growing domestic and external reasons, through which disasters, whether natural or man-made, interact to increase the impact and size of any crisis affecting the people of the country.

READ: Iraq moves to sue Iran over water access

Iraq, along with Palestine, is a clear example of the environmental crisis resulting from war, occupation and neo-colonial policies in the Arab world, which undermine the social and economic basis of life in the region. The effects of this environmental crisis appear in devastating climate change, the pollution of extractive industries, the depletion of natural resources, the scarcity of water, and the pollution of air and soil due to the use of modern munitions, such as depleted uranium and white phosphorous, as has been seen in Iraq and Gaza. It is estimated that the war against Iraq caused the release of 141 million metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2003 and 2007. That's more than 60 per cent of the total for all countries in the world.

Despite the availability of this data and its documentation by international human rights organisations, and the fact that the internal environmental situation is largely linked to the outside world, Iraq remained, until recent months, at the bottom of government and public lists of concerns. It is hardly mentioned except on the margins of international conferences or among the lists of "worst" countries in reports and statistics issued by UN bodies and organisations concerned with the environment and its economic and societal repercussions. Only then does it rank in a high position that no one else matches.

Iraq is stable at the top of the most corrupt countries in the world, and it tops the list of the most corrupt Arab countries. Iraqi President Barham Salih is unable to cover the financial loss from corruption in the country over the years. Iraq has lost hundreds of billions of dollars, including $150 billion smuggled abroad through lucrative deals since 2003, a figure that seems smaller when the dinar and dollar are compared, and the word "trillions" comes into play.

Iraq is also among the most dangerous countries according to the security risk index, competing with Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Mali and Afghanistan. This is based on the documentation of the war and information on terrorism, infighting, insurgencies and politically motivated unrest. It was also the second deadliest country for journalists in 2020, according to Reporters Without Borders. Once-beautiful Baghdad, with its ancient civilisation, is not spared from inclusion in the list of the least clean cities in the world due to the neglect of the reconstruction of the buildings and structures that the occupation destroyed, as well as the infrastructure, including the sewage system, roads, water drainage and power plants.

In a recent report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Iraq ranked fifth in the list of countries most affected by climate change and global warming. The repercussions can be summed up in the lack of water safe for drinking and irrigation, the indiscriminate use of groundwater, and the lack of water in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers due to the construction of dams upstream by Iran and Turkey, in violation of international agreements. This has caused agriculture to be abandoned and the displacement of rural populations to cities that were not prepared to receive them. The Norwegian Refugee Council declared last week that nearly half of the Iraqi population is in need of food assistance in the areas affected by drought.

Despite such evidence about climate and environmental change, and its repercussions on all aspects of life in Iraq, what passes for a government is still involved in corruption and fighting over the results of the recent election. At the same time, it boosts its media exposure by joining in the chorus of calls to protect the environment at international conferences, without ever taking any real action to do so itself. Iraq's Environment Minister, for example, spoke on the eve of the recent Glasgow Climate Summit about the catastrophic repercussions of climate change on food and water security. He failed to mention his government's shortcomings in the implementation of reform and development programmes to counter the impact of the crisis in Iraq.

OPINION: Will Iraq's election expose US-Saudi endorsement of Sadr's drive to impose a prime minister?

In order to understand the current environmental catastrophe in Iraq, it is necessary to consider the political situation, especially the fragmentation of the state into political blocs, which are fighting among themselves. This has stripped the state of any real power and central authority that would enable it to rebuild the infrastructure and put an end to sectarian and ethnic quota conflicts that are reflected in the distribution of resources. It has also caused the failure of the state to force neighbouring countries to respect Iraq's sovereign rights. This comes at a time when the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has classified Iraq among the 44 countries in need of urgent foreign food aid.

The local and global causes of this tragic situation are known, with the failure to implement effective remedies about which so much has already been written and creating alternative provision. To this we must add the political and economic complicity of the local rulers with the colonial-imperialist countries; the encouragement of policies of silence, surrender and satisfaction with the tragic reality, instead of rejection and resistance; and the growing sense of regional and ethnic rather than national identity are all responsible for creating conflicts even among their victims, leading to socio-environmental conflicts over land, resources and livelihoods taking centre stage.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Quds Al-Arabi on 20 December 2021

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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Why does Iraq top the lists of the world's 'worst' countries? - Middle East Monitor

A Calgary father who stashed his daughter in Iraq with his two wives so the child's mother would not have access to her has been sentenced to two years in jail, but with credit for the time he's already served has just one year left.

In May, Ali Al Aazawi was convicted of abduction in contravention of a court order by provincial court Judge Greg Stirling.

On Tuesday, after handing down the sentence, Stirling addressed Al Aazawi directly, imploring him to try to repair the relationship between his daughter, Zahraa, who is still in Iraq, and her mother, whose life has been "shattered" since her girl was taken more than three years ago.

"The most difficult part of this trial for me was to observe the effect that your conduct has had on Zahraa," said Stirling.

Zainab Mahdi initially consented to her then-10-year-old daughter taking a summer trip to an Egyptian resort in June 2018, with the plan of returning in September2018 with her father.

When he took her to Iraq, text messages between the girl and her mother showed Zahraa was initially scared and wanted to come home.

But by the time the trial took place earlier this year, nearly three years after Zahraa was taken to Iraq, she expressed that she did not want to return.

The judge found that once he was released on bail,Al Aazawi made"genuine efforts" to persuade his daughter to come back to Canada but she no longer wants to.

The girl appears to have been brainwashed and refused to leave, expressing what the judge described as "anger and bitterness" toward her mother.

"What I observed in my dealing with Zahraa is that she's very angry and my own experience is that most anger comes from somebody being very hurt," said Stirling.

"Most children need both their parents' love and I think what you can do to assure your daughter's happiness is you need to see if you can repair the damage between Zahraa and her mother."

In 2018, Al Aazawi took the girl to Iraq and left her with family so that he could have complete control over her education, Stirling found when convicting the father earlier this year.

Mahdi said goodbye to her daughter Zahraa on June 16, 2018. She hasn't seen her since.

When she first arrived in Iraq, Zahraa told her mother that her father had made plans for her to remain there for five years so she could attend school and learn the local culture and religion.

Mahdi said if she'd known that was the last time she'd see her daughter, she would have preferred to die.

Initially, Al Aazawi was in Iraq with Zahraa. There, police recorded a conversation between him and his ex-wife. During that conversation he said he would allow his daughter to return on the condition he have sole custody of Zahraa.

The day after police recorded that conversation, Al Aazawi flew back to Canada without his daughter. Police learned of his travel and arrested him at the Toronto airport.

In a victim impact statement, Mahdi also expressed worry that Zahraa believes she does not love her because she didn't go to Iraq to bring her home.

Mahdi said as a woman she had no power in Iraq to bring Zahraa back to Canada.

The mother has suffered from depression since her daughter's abduction to the point that she hasbeen hospitalized.

She said she is "never not lonely" and feels like a "dead person in an alive body."

Defence lawyer Balfour Der proposed a one-year sentence for his client, Ali Al Aazawi, while prosecutor Martha O'Connor asked the judge to send a message to stop other parents committing such egregious breaches of parental responsibilities.

Al Aazawi spent about eight months in jail before he was granted bail.

Stirling imposed a 28 month sentence but gave Al Aazawi four months of credit for the strict bail conditions he's been living under. The judge also gave him 388 days ofcredit for the time he served before getting bail.

That means Al Aazawi has 342 days left on his sentence.

Following trial, Al Aazawi was found not guilty of the more serious offence of international kidnapping, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison.

In law, the victim of the kidnapping offence charge is the child. Despite Zahraa's young age, Stirling could not find beyond a reasonable doubt that she travelled to Iraq against her will. There is no age limit on a youth's ability to consent.

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'She's very angry,' judge says of abducted child left in Iraq as dad sentenced to 2 years in jail - CBC.ca

A New Jersey high school teacher and Gulf War veteran who is battling breast cancer is taking to social media to spread hope.

Sandy Jessop, of Wall, served alongside her now-husband, Christian Jessop, during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2004, then deployed again to Iraq in 2008.

The couple share three children together and are both high school teachers.

About one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sandy -- a teacher at Freehold Regional High School -- was diagnosed with breast cancer.

"It was confirmed I have breast cancer on Saturday," she wrote in an Instagram post. "I expect a long hard road ahead of me. Here, I will document the journey. The good, the bad, the ugly ... but it will all be part of my road to a happy, healthy me, wife and mom of three."

A fellow veteran and friend of the family, Christa Recio, launched a GoFundMe for the family amid Sandy's cancer battle.

"[Sandy's] undoubtedly the kindest, most generous person I know and has a heart of gold," the campaign says. "When I see her circles of support, its because shes magnetic and radiates unicorn power."

Her Instagram page is a raw look into her journey.

"This week I thought a lot about allllllllll the energy thats been poured into me," she writes. "From everyone and everything, to save my life. From doctors and all the training theyve had, all the machines, all the medicines, all the therapists, all the nurses, surgical technicians, pharmacists, radiation technicians, and even the physicists that make the calculations for this proton machine.

"It all comes together perfectly to save little ol me and that is SO humbling ."

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Jersey Shore HS Teacher, Iraq War Vet Documenting Breast Cancer Battle On Instagram - Northern Highlands Daily Voice