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Agri-food representatives have told Agriculture Minster Edwin Poots that the UKs immigration system is the main catalyst for staff shortages facing the industry here.

ne MLA described the situation as a perfect storm of failed regulations, economics and other forces that have severely impacted the sector.

Mr Poots said these shortages are causing difficulties across the food processing sector, and for abattoirs in particular, a situation he described as worrying.

Despite offering competitive wages, the minister said, agri-food firms here have struggled to recruit a fully-staffed workforce from the pool of domestic workers here, so have had to rely on migrant workers to fill the labour gap in the past. Changes to immigration rules made in Westminster, however, now mean migrant labour is limited to skilled jobs that meet certain salary levels and English language requirements.

Mr Poots added: Industry representatives have indicated that the new UK Immigration System is the main catalyst for the current shortages.

Engagement with industry indicates that there continues to be sizeable labour shortages, particular with respect to the number of slaughter plant operatives and butchers in our abattoirs and processing plants.

These labour shortages are causing difficulties across the food processing sector, however, it is the pig sector that is reporting the most serious difficulties with processing capacity, resulting in a rollover of pigs on farms each week.

Other pressures facing the pig sector are an increase in supply alongside a global fall in pig prices. Late last year, the UK Government announced temporary visas for 800 butchers for the pig sector in order to ease staffing pressures. Applications for this scheme have now closed and the DUP minister warned short-term schemes will do nothing to alleviate the agri-food staffing problem in the medium to longer-term.

This is a worrying situation and I continue to take all steps within my power to help mitigate the problem. A significant aspect of this is my continued and extensive engagement with Whitehall given that Immigration Policy is a reserved matter, he said.

Independent unionist MLA Claire Sugden said: Rules made in Westminster not in Stormont mean access to migrant labour is now limited to skilled jobs that meet set salary levels and English lan guage requirements.

As a result, we simply cannot find enough slaughter plant operatives and butchers in our abattoirs and processing plants.

The knock-on effect of this is that animals cannot be slaughtered and processed quickly enough. Farmers and plants have these animals queuing up for longer, which means farmers are not just spending more on feed the price of which has also soared in recent months but actually having to pay price penalties for overweight animals in the case of pigs.

It truly is a perfect storm of failed regulations, economics and other forces that together are conspiring to make meat farming and processing across Northern Ireland increasingly unsustainable.

SDLP agriculture spokesperson Patsy McGlone said the main reason for the issues is Brexit.

Minister Poots also acknowledges that there is no obvious solution to these problems. Perhaps if his party stopped threatening to collapse our institutions and supported an agreement between the EU and British Government to resolve the small number of outstanding issues around the Protocol, we could then turn our attentions to coming up with a plan to support businesses like these and help them attract the staff they need, he said.

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Staffing crisis in agri-food industry is down to immigration rules, Poots told - Belfast Telegraph

A vendor waits for customers at a food market in Ankara, on Sunday. Turkeys central bank kept a key interest rate unchanged last week, halting a string of rate cuts that triggered a currency crisis and sent prices skyrocketing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan runs classic stop-go economic policies linked to the political cycle, says Tim Ash. [AP]

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is jeopardizing Turkeys economy by pursuing an unorthodox economic policy in the hope that he can reverse his slide in the opinion polls and keep his chances of re-election alive ahead of elections in 2023, says Tim Ash, emerging market sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London.

Ash describes the conditions that make capital controls on the Turkish economy a possibility. That is, despite the broader momentum of the countrys economy, which is being undermined by Erdogans insistence on rate cuts.

He speaks critically of the poor advisers around the Turkish strongman, while expressing concern that the situation could lead to a Lebanon-style crisis.

Culd you explain in a few words what exactly is happening in the Turkish economy today?

Erdogan runs classic stop-go economic policies linked to the political cycle. Elections are due by June 23. He is struggling in the polls so tries to use economic levers to win popularity. This means typically loose credit policies which buoy import demand and keep the trade and current account deficits elevated, and this puts pressure on the lira. The added complication is his religious views on interest rates he opposes usury. This means the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cannot hike policy rates to slow import demand, which means the lira has to adjust weaker to close the external financing gap. The weaker lira just fuels inflation, which erodes competitiveness, and we end up in inflation-devaluation spirals.

How serious is this crisis? What is the danger for the Turkish economy today and how likely is the scenario of capital controls in Turkey?

I worry about a systemic crisis, including capital controls. If you cannot use interest rates and wont go to the International Monetary Fund, the risk is of a hyperinflation-devaluation spiral where people lose confidence in the lira and banks. The only option then is capital controls. An added complication is the CBRT has limited FX reserve buffers and net reserves are heavily negative likely $60-70 billion. So the CBRT is spending other peoples money. When the population realizes that, we might end up in a Lebanon-style crisis and run on banks.

But the Turkish economy is achieving positive growth rates. In fact, it was one of the few countries in the world with growth in 2020, a year of lockdowns. In addition, its public debt is no more than 40% of GDP and its budget deficit appears manageable, at 5% of GDP. So, is it a mixed picture when you analyze the course of the Turkish economy?

No, you are right there are positives and some durability here. The economy is delivering high growth likely 10% in 2021 but at the price of high inflation, 36% in December. So people dont feel better off. It eats away at living standards.

In the meanwhile, is the devaluation of the lira boosting the competitiveness of Turkish exports? Is that a positive side effect of an unorthodox policy?

The lira might be cheap, but not for long with high inflation.

What mistakes is Erdogan making? What is he thinking?

Its his obsession with interest rates. If Turkey had a decent central bank governor, able to set rates independently, I think Turkey could rebound quickly. You mentioned the positives, including low public debt, good demographics, decent banks and corporations, good location and a strong manufacturing base. Entrepreneurial pro-business culture. Turkey should be a success story. But Erdogan has his head in the sand, and has poor advisers around him. There are very few checks and balances to prevent policy mistakes.

What do the markets think of Turkey today? Have they lost confidence in the country or are they still waiting?

I think they are hoping elections bring policy change and orthodox policy. Most foreign investors have reduced positions and are on the sidelines waiting for change.

Would you say that the latest developments undermine Turkeys perspective as a member of the G20? Or does Erdoganomics still have room for experimentation in practice?

Post-Erdogan I think Turkey can bounce back quickly.

Read more:
Erdogan has his head in the sand, says analyst on Turkish economy - Kathimerini English Edition

In 2019, the UK halted new export licences for arms sales to Turkey but last December under Boris Johnson's orders they resumed normal licencing. The former Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab raised concerns that weapons might be used during military operations in Syria. Mr Raab condemned Turkeys invasion of Syria, saying: This is not the action we expected from an ally. It is reckless. It is counterproductive and plays straight into the hands of Russia, and indeed the Assad regime." President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is gearing up to invade Syria,argues his forces are targeting Kurdish groups who he believes are terrorists, but one of the UK's key allies fighting IS are Kurdish groups.

Mr Raab said once called on Ankara to show maximum restraint and warned that incursions against Kurdish groups undermine international effort to defeat IS.

The British Government said licences will only be issued if the applicant can "incontrovertibly demonstrate that the goods will not be used in northeastern Syria."

It is very unclear how UK trade officials would be able to determine if the arms have been used in Syria or not.

Declassified UK submitted a Freedom of Information request to the Foreign Office and the government refused to provide the information they hold. They said doing so would prejudice relations between the UK and Turkey.

The UKs 2021 Defence Review also says: Turkey is a crucial NATO Ally."

Since 2016, Britain has sold nearly a billion pounds worth of military goods to Turkey and has produced laser targeting systems for F-16 bomber aircraft, other warplane components, and bomb racks and guidance systems for Turkeys Bayraktar-2 drones.

Less than two weeks ago, there was a siege on a prison in northern Syria. IS militants carried out multiple car bombs and it was the largest and most sophisticated attack by IS militants since the group's fall in 2019.

Many believe that the prison attack was coordinated by Turkish forces in a bid to free IS fighters as they have recently stepped up drone attacks in the area. As recently as Tuesday night, Turkish bombing devasted Yazidi a minority group who have continually been persecuted villages.And on Christmas Day 2021, a Turkish drone destroyed a youth movement house which was a violation of a 2019 peace treaty.

In response to the recent attacks, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "Ministers and officials maintain regular contact with the Turkish Government and frequently discuss the situation in Syria."

A report from the Rojava Information Centre reveals that over 40 former ISIS members are being sheltered, funded and protected by Turkey in the occupied regions of Syria.

Since 2018, northeast Syria has been under the control of Turkish backed militias who seized control of the city after a two-month operation to remove Kurdish forces. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria found vast evidence of daily rape, sexual violence, harassment and torture in the first half of 2020 in the areas under Turkish control.

Atrocities are mirroring what happened to people at the hands of IS, but people are not being tortured by a militant Islamist group they are under the control of a NATO member.

The UK is Turkeys second-largest export market, and talks are set to begin this year on an even more expansive trade agreement.

France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland have curbed arms sales to Turkey.

Andrew Smith from the Campaign Against Arms Trade said to The Guardian: "Its time that the rights of people were finally put ahead of arms company profits.

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UK covertly sends arms to Turkey as Erdogan steps up preparations for imminent invasion - Daily Express

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