Mediaboss Marketing

OLYMPIA Washington lawmakers are considering whether they should allow voters to select multiple candidates in order of preference in some local elections.

A Senate bill would allow counties, cities, towns, school districts, fire districts and port districts to adopt ranked-choice voting for general elections and primary elections if certain conditions are met. Jurisdictions would have the choice to adopt ranked-choice voting and have the discretion on which races would use ranked-choice voting.

Ranked-choice voting allows a voter to rank their candidates in preferential order. All first choice votes are counted, and a winner is declared if they have over 50% of the vote. If no one reaches the 50% threshold in the first round, the person with the fewest number of votes is eliminated. Anyone who voted for that candidate has their votes count toward their next ranked candidate. That elimination process repeats until a candidate reaches the 50% threshold.

Prime sponsor Sen. Yasmin Trudeau, D-Tacoma, said allowing localities to adopt ranked-choice voting allows voters to make choices that best represent them.

It enables people to vote based on their values instead of having to settle for the lesser of what they consider to be two evils, Trudeau said at a Senate State Government and Elections hearing on Jan. 19.

Jurisdictions that use ranked-choice could get grants from the Washington Secretary of States office to adopt the system.

Spokane County Auditor Vicky Dalton said ranked-choice proposals have been floated over the past few years. She and other county auditors have been engaged in conversations with advocates about different proposals and their viability, she said.

This is a discussion that has evolved over the last several years, Dalton told The Spokesman-Review. Were working through this concept step-by-step.

Supporters of the proposal said the bill allows voters to have more options to choose from when electing leaders. Shae Dolan, high school senior from Tacoma and chair of the Legislative Youth Advisory Council, said youth voter turnout is so low not because of political apathy, but because candidates dont accurately represent them.

By increasing the choices on the ballot, preferential elections promote the viability of third party candidates, combat feelings of futility, improve representation and ensure young voters like me feel heard, Dolan said at the January 19 hearing.

Washington already has a top-two primary system, which allows the top two candidates in the primary, regardless of party, to advance to the general election. Proponents of that system, like proponents of ranked-choice, say the top-two system can lead to increased voter turnout and more competitive races.

Cornell Clayton, director of the Thomas S. Foley Institute of Public Policy and Public Service at Washington State University, said ranked-choice voting and the states top-two primary system both can theoretically lead to more moderate candidates. Ranked-choice, however, broadens the choices available to voters, Clayton said.

Travis Ridout, professor of government and public policy at WSU, said the theory that both systems can lead to more moderate candidates, while plausible, needs more studies.

Im not sure we yet have definitive evidence on the degree of moderation thats promoted, Ridout said. Though its very, very plausible.

In terms of the top-two system, a primary election that advances two members of the same party, Ridout said, doesnt offer people of the other party much choice in that general election.

Ridout said that voters in the current single choice system have to vote for the candidate they think has the best chance of winning which may not necessarily be their true preference. Under ranked-choice, they have more freedom to choose who they actually like.

You dont have to be worried about the viability of a candidate in order to vote for a candidate, Ridout said. If you want to vote for that Llbertarian, go ahead and vote for the Libertarian whether that Libertarians viable or not.

Opponents of the measure say ranked-choice voting can lead to voter confusion and delays in results. George Forman, a computer scientist from Port Orchard, said different vote tabulating algorithms could lead to different consensus results and the state shouldnt run that risk.

It would be better to have simple voting procedures everyone understands and not require running and trusting a computer algorithm to determine the winner, Forman said.

Dalton said ranked-choice voting cant be implemented right now. Outstanding issues like ballot design, rules relating to ballot counting and voter education need time to be fleshed out with auditors and advocates.

I would say were not there yet, Dalton said. Theres still a lot of individual steps and impacts that need to be explored, need to be worked and need to be thought all the way through.

Dalton said the discussions should continue to take place allowing time so auditors can be ready to implement a thorough product.

All county auditors in Washington want to ensure that if were tasked with implementing something, that we are able to put that function into production successfully, Dalton said. We do not want to fail in anything we do, and we do not want to fail because a function has been mandated before the processes are available and ready.

The bill was passed out of committee on Jan. 26. It has been referred to the Senate Ways and Means committee where it is awaiting a hearing.

Follow this link:
What would ranked-choice look like in Washington? The Legislatures hoping to find out - Yakima Herald-Republic

To allow parents to scour lessons for elements of critical race theory, Arizona teachers would be required to upload a list of every book and worksheet they use in their classrooms online for parental review if a Republican-backed bill becomes law.

The goal, says state Sen. Nancy Barto, is to increase transparency for parents who are concerned about their childrens education. Senate Bill 1211 requires schools to publicly post all materials and class activities on their website at least 7 days after being used. That means the names, authors, and organizations associated with the materials, along with links if theyre available for free online or descriptions if theyre not. Materials encompass everything from textbooks and worksheets to YouTube videos and phone apps.

Lesson plans that include topics like race, gender, diversity and non-discrimination must be posted at least 72 hours before theyre carried out.

More sunshine on what our kids are involved in is a great thing, Barto, the Phoenix Republican who introduced the bill, said.

GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX

SUBSCRIBE

This is the second attempt to enshrine this into law, and a response to conservatives concern about so-called critical race theory being taught in classrooms. Conservatives have appropriated critical race theory as a catchall to describe basically any serious attempt to teach the history of race and racism in America.

Nicole Solas flew in from Rhode Island in support of the bill during a hearing on Tuesday afternoon. Solas was sued by the National Education Association after she filed more than 200 public records requests to determine whether her daughters school taught critical race theory. Solas said she was testifying on Arizona legislation so she could take the ideas back to Rhode Island.

She is being represented by the Goldwater Institute, a Phoenix-based libertarian think tank that drafted the bill and is using it as model legislation in other states. Matt Beienburg, Goldwater Institutes education policy director, said the organization supports other proposed bills of the same vein in 20 other states.

One proponent of the bill is Steve Daniels, the chairman of the right-wing extremist Patriot Party, who spent much of 2021 disrupting local school board meetings to protest mask mandates and how race is taught in schools. At one meeting, he was arrested for trespassing.

It is racist curriculum it singles kids out for the color of their skin and tells them: If youre white, youre a racist and you cant help it because you were born that way, he said of critical race theory education.

Critical race theory, in fact, is an analysis of how racism exists at a systemic level, and does not imply that white people are intrinsically racist. The Arizona chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union condemned the bill as an attempt to make it more difficult to teach inclusion.

Any bill that interferes with our childrens education by undermining teachers ability to facilitate discussions about our countrys history, including our struggles with race, sex and LGBQT+ rights, should not become law, Darrell Hill, the organizations policy director, said in an email.

You are handcuffing what your educators can bring into the classroom. Asking them to post everything except the test is untenable.

Joe Thomas, Arizona Education Association president

Several local parents also spoke in favor of the bill.

Amy Carney, a mother of six, held up a printout of a page from the Scottsdale Unified School Districts website and said that the majority of links to teacher syllabi were broken.

If our schools are proud of the materials theyre using in their classes, there should be no problem (uploading them), she said.

One mother, Kerwin Franklin, pointed out that her childs charter school sent her descriptions of the curriculum and even ISBN numbers for the textbooks being used so she could easily look them up. She was required to sign a form to acknowledge she read the curriculum paperwork.

The Arizona Charter Schools Association is opposed to the bill, and told the Arizona Mirror that it would unnecessarily increase the workload on already stressed schools and teachers. Matthew Ladner, the associations director of the Arizona Center for Student Opportunity, said member schools have reached out with concerns.

(Theyre) not philosophically opposed to the concept of transparency, he said.

Educators said the bill has problems. Former Mesa public school teacher Judith Simons said policies like those in SB1211 are part of the reason she retired after 33 years. She referred to it as creeping micromanagement, and said it would constrain the creativity and responsiveness of teachers.

Every student is different and requires curriculum adjustments, Simons said. Having to report all of their instructional decisions constitutes extra work with no commensurate compensation and may disincentivize personalized teaching. Rather than mandate more work for teachers, Simons said parents who are concerned about their childs education should simply communicate directly with their childrens teachers.

Please treat teachers with respect and trust their professionalism, she said.

Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Paradise Valley, who used to be a high school teacher, said she sometimes had to provide abridged versions of difficult literary works to struggling students. The requirement to report those books could result in confusion and arguments with parents about who is using the abridged versions and why.

Another former teacher, Rachael Clawson, said that requiring teachers to report their curriculums would prevent them from making quick changes - something that has become more commonplace during the pandemic. Clawson herself had to trash all of the teaching guides she drew up in advance of her maternity leave when her school switched to remote learning. Ultimately, curriculum concerns are best left to be resolved by one- on- one communication between parents and teachers.

This is not transparency, it is government overreach, she firmly concluded.

Melissa Ewing, a substitute teacher for six years, said approving the measure would exacerbate the already difficult task of being an educator and would likely add to the shortage by convincing current teachers to leave the profession and dissuading future teachers from joining because it implies a deep distrust of them.

The results of a survey conducted last October by the Arizona School Personnel Administrators Association estimated that as much as 25.9% of teacher vacancies in Arizona remained unfilled and 55.4% of the vacancies were remedied by teachers who dont meet state certification standards.

The Arizona Department of Education opposes SB1211 because it places a high administrative burden on schools and teachers. The department advised parents to take advantage of curriculum nights and parent-teacher conferences to resolve concerns.

We know parents and teachers share the same goal of helping their students learn and grow, that goal is best met by building stronger, trusting relationships, instead of accusatory rhetoric and burdensome policy proposals, the departments spokesperson, Morgan Dick, said in an email to the Arizona Mirror.

If our schools are proud of the materials theyre using in their classes, there should be no problem.

Joe Thomas, the president of the Arizona Education Association, the states largest teachers union, said the bill would dissuade teachers from engaging their students in off-the-cuff ways and not deviate at all from the lesson plan. Thomas shared the story of a highly awarded teacher who was gifted an apple by a student before class and shifted his lesson to include discussing how bacteria can accumulate by making a show of dropping it after he bit into it in front of his class and examining samples from it later.

You are handcuffing what your educators can bring into the classroom. Asking them to post everything except the test is untenable, Thomas said.

The bill does allow for lessons about non-sensitive topics that dont include discussions of race or gender to be uploaded within seven days after theyre taught.

Sen. Rick Gray, R-Peoria, heatedly said committee members have been contacted by numerous parents, which should have been solved by school officials but hasnt been.

Thomas replied that cases where parents and teachers arent communicating effectively arent systemic enough to warrant legislation, and resolutions are best handled at the local level.

Gray challenged Thomas to come up with a better solution, to which Thomas laughed and thanked him for being afforded seconds to respond. Later, Chairman Paul Boyer, R-Glendale, stated he himself successfully thought up some ideas in seconds and said school districts could post curriculum on their websites which would be required under this bill and host curriculum nights. Members of the audience yelled out they do in response.

Boyer is a high school teacher at a Valley charter school.

SB1211 was approved by the committee along party lines. It awaits approval by the Senate floor.

Barto, who sponsored the bill, said she hoped it would help repair the trust broken between parents and teachers, and that parents concerned about what their children are exposed to in the classroom deserve answers.

Our kids belong to our parents, not the schools, she said.

Read more here:
To expose 'critical race theory' in classrooms, Republicans move to have teachers post all lesson materials online - Arizona Mirror

Breadcrumb Trail Links

Greg Abbott is embracing an industry that sees itself as a libertarian form of finance free from meddling by banks and governments

Author of the article:

Bloomberg News

Michael Smith

Last fall, Texas Governor Greg Abbott gathered dozens of cryptocurrency deal makers in Austin where they discussed an idea that, on its face, seemed almost upside down: Electricity-hungry Bitcoin miners could shore up the states power grid, a top priority after a deep freeze last winter triggered blackouts that left hundreds dead.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

The industrys advocates have been making that pitch to the governor for years. The idea is that the miners computer arrays would demand so much electricity that someone would come along to build more power plants, something Texas badly needs. If the grid starts to go wobbly, as it did when winter storm Uri froze up power plants in February 2021, miners could quickly shut down to conserve energy for homes and businesses. At least two Bitcoin miners have already volunteered to do just that.

Theres no guarantee anyone will build more generation or switch off just because theyre asked. Theres even a chance the idea could backfire and put more strain on the grid overall. But at last Octobers meeting at the governors mansion, Abbott made it clear that he was going to count on the miners assistance when the electricity grid faced colder months ahead. Help me get through the winter, the governor said, according to four people who attended the meeting.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Getting through the winter may be key to Abbotts political fortunes as he stands for re-election. He faces two main opponents in a March 1 Republican primary and a tougher fight in November against Democrat Beto ORourke. The grid is one of the governors few weak flanks: The most recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, from October, showed that 60 per cent of Texans disapprove of how state leaders have handled the reliability of the grid.

There has to be a really thoughtful approach to bringing gigawatts worth of Bitcoin onto the system, said Doug Lewin, an energy consultant in Austin. He said regulators need to require miners to shut down during a crisis, instead of making it voluntary. Weve got to make sure that if were getting close to scarcity, people arent mining Bitcoins anymore.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Abbott is embracing an industry that sees itself as a libertarian form of finance free from meddling by banks and governments an ideal that appeals to his core GOP voters. That support, and Texass cheap electricity and near-zero regulation, helped spur big companies like Riot Blockchain Inc., Singapore-based Bitdeer Group and the U.K.s Argo Blockchain Plc to build some of the worlds largest Bitcoin mines in the state.

We've got to make sure that if we're getting close to scarcity, people aren't mining Bitcoins anymore

Doug Lewin

In all, there are seven big miners and more than 20 smaller ones in Texas, according to the lobbying group Texas Blockchain Council.

Abbott and Republican lawmakers have taken some of the most aggressive steps in the U.S. to lure the industry. Last May, Texas became one of a few states to make it easier for businesses to hold crypto assets and use them as collateral for loans. Abbott also created the Work Group on Blockchain Matters, staffed by industry experts and insiders.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

He sees this huge opportunity, I believe, around the energy sector, said Christopher Calicott, a managing director at Austin venture capital firm Trammell Venture Partners whos on Abbotts crypto task force.

Texas is luring miners partially because other places dont want them. Governments from China to Kazakhstan to Iceland have outright banned or limited crypto mining because of their drain on electric grids.

Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council, finds opportunity in these bans. Hes met with Abbott several times to promote Bitcoin minings benefits to the power grid, including at the governors mansion last fall.

Its really a healthy dynamic that brings tax revenue, brings job creation and also is a grid strengthening mechanism, Bratcher said in an interview. Governor Abbotts been very supportive.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

And Abbott isnt alone. State leaders, from Austin Mayor Steve Adler on the left to conservative Senator Ted Cruz, are pushing Texas as a crypto paradise. A few days before the governors crypto meeting in Austin, Cruz spoke for 38 minutes at a blockchain industry conference, keying in on the potential for Bitcoin mining to bolster the states power system. In five years, I expect to see a dramatically different terrain with Bitcoin mining playing a significant role as strengthening and hardening the resiliency of the grid, he said.

Depending on Bitcoin miners is risky because theres a chance they wont shut down or will take too long to power off, said Ben Hertz-Shargel, global head of energy consultant Wood Mackenzies Grid Edge unit. As crisis looms, miners could vie for power with families and businesses. At those times, Bitcoin mining would be competing with basic core societal needs like heating or cooling homes or the functioning of hospitals and nursing homes, Hertz-Shargel said.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Abbotts spokespeople didnt respond to multiple email and phone requests for comment.

The governors embrace of crypto mining goes back years. Gideon Powell, an oil wildcatter in Dallas, recalls pitching crypto to Abbott soon after he got into Bitcoin mining about five years ago. And at another meeting a few weeks after last years storm, the governor quizzed him about how the industry could help stabilize the grid.

He definitely seems to grasp it, Powell said. And its such a weird concept: Hey, were gonna put more energy consumption in an energy system, and thats going to stabilize the grid.'

Texass competitive power market is central to the miners pitch. Nothing is more important to Bitcoin mining than electricity. It powers the computers that hum nonstop to solve complicated algorithmic equations. This work is the source of all the worlds Bitcoins.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Within two years, enough new Bitcoin mines will come online to require as much as 5 gigawatts of additional electricity in Texas, according to the Texas Blockchain Council. Thats enough to light up Austin, a city of almost 1 million, twice over.

Theres a risk those projections may need to be adjusted. Mining is only profitable when Bitcoin trades above the cost of the power and computers needed to create them, and prices are off almost 50 per cent from a record high reached in November. An extended slump could delay the mining expansion.

For now, the idea of putting further stress on the grid is anathema to Texans who lived through last years storm, when frigid weather swept across the state, freezing up gas wells and forcing power plants offline. The blackouts left more than 200 people dead and paralyzed the state for almost a week. Texans blamed Abbotts lax regulation of the electricity system, and lawmakers ordered hundreds of power plants to winterize.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Everything that needed to be done was done to fix the power grid, Abbott said in June. The power grid operator also is optimistic Bitcoin miners can help the grid, a spokesperson for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot, said in a statement.

But there are signs the risk of blackouts remains. Two arctic blasts in January shut down some gas production, exposing continued vulnerabilities for equipment that ensures the flow of fuel to electricity generators.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Rivals are hounding Abbott over his handling of the power disaster.

Experts continue to warn that Texas could face another grid failure the next time we experience an extreme weather event, ORourke said on his Twitter account in December after the governor promised the lights would stay on this winter. Abbott and his appointees shouldnt be betting our lives on the weather.

Former state senator Don Huffines, a GOP primary challenger, announced a plan this month to do more than Abbott to stimulate crypto, especially to strengthen the power grid. I am committed to making Texas the Citadel for Bitcoin, Huffines said in a statement.

At the Oct. 13 meeting in the governors mansion, Abbott made it clear hes already all-in on crypto mining. His blockchain working group is looking for more crypto-friendly laws and incentives to pursue, and the industrys expansion plans have his support. When someone asked if Texas is Bitcoin Country, the governor smiled and agreed.

Bloomberg.com

_____________________________________________________________

For more stories like this one, sign up for the FP Investor newsletter.

______________________________________________________________

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of Financial Post Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notificationsyou will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

Read more:
Texas governor turns to Bitcoin miners to bolster the power grid and his re-election - Financial Post

If you want to vote by mail, you have to request a mail-in ballot.The Maryland State Board of Elections is mailing ballot request forms for mail-in ballots to more than 3 million registered Maryland voters in advance of the state's 2022 primary election. Ballot requests forms will begin arriving in mailboxes later this week. Maryland's 2022 primary election is on June 28. This year, Maryland state law requires election officials send all voters a form to request a mail-in ballot. After filling out the request form, sign and seal it and return it in the postage-paid envelope that came with the form. To receive a mail-in ballot for the primary election, return envelopes must be received by June 21.Voters who want to vote in person should not fill out and return the form.Alternatively, voters can request a mail-in ballot online if they have a Maryland driver's license or Motor Vehicle Administration-issued ID card.Voters can also visit their local boards of election and fill out and return their ballot request form.This first phase of request forms for the primary election are addressed to registered Democrats and registered Republicans. Voters registered with other political parties, such as the Green Party and Libertarian Party, and unaffiliated voters will receive a request form in a second phase of mailers if there is a primary election in their school board district. Request forms for these voters will be mailed after the deadline for candidates to file for office, so that election officials will know where there are contested school board elections. There will be a final phase of mailers after the primary election for all other registered voters.To vote by mail, you must be registered to vote in Maryland. Visit elections.maryland.gov to register or update your voter record.

If you want to vote by mail, you have to request a mail-in ballot.

The Maryland State Board of Elections is mailing ballot request forms for mail-in ballots to more than 3 million registered Maryland voters in advance of the state's 2022 primary election. Ballot requests forms will begin arriving in mailboxes later this week.

Maryland's 2022 primary election is on June 28.

This year, Maryland state law requires election officials send all voters a form to request a mail-in ballot. After filling out the request form, sign and seal it and return it in the postage-paid envelope that came with the form. To receive a mail-in ballot for the primary election, return envelopes must be received by June 21.

Voters who want to vote in person should not fill out and return the form.

Alternatively, voters can request a mail-in ballot online if they have a Maryland driver's license or Motor Vehicle Administration-issued ID card.

Voters can also visit their local boards of election and fill out and return their ballot request form.

This first phase of request forms for the primary election are addressed to registered Democrats and registered Republicans. Voters registered with other political parties, such as the Green Party and Libertarian Party, and unaffiliated voters will receive a request form in a second phase of mailers if there is a primary election in their school board district. Request forms for these voters will be mailed after the deadline for candidates to file for office, so that election officials will know where there are contested school board elections.

There will be a final phase of mailers after the primary election for all other registered voters.

To vote by mail, you must be registered to vote in Maryland. Visit elections.maryland.gov to register or update your voter record.

See the article here:
Mail-in ballot request forms sent to Maryland voters ahead of primary election - WBAL TV Baltimore

KYIV, Ukraine While the Russian military is not yet capable of mounting a total invasion of Ukraine, portions of its army have reached full combat strength and appear to be in the final stages of readiness for military action should the Kremlin order it, according to an assessment by the Ukrainian militarys high command.

Of particular concern to Ukrainian officials is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014. In the last two weeks, Russia has deployed an additional 10,000 troops to the region, including infantry and airborne forces; more ominously, it has put some commands on the highest level of readiness, according to the militarys assessment.

Along with recent efforts to strengthen forces near two Kremlin-backed separatist enclaves in Ukraine, the deployments mean that Russia could soon be fully prepared to begin military actions along about 800 miles of Ukraines eastern and southern borders, according to the assessment.

The assessment was described in general terms by a senior Ukrainian military official who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose confidential intelligence findings. It broadly aligns with newly released satellite images showing a significant military buildup in Crimea over the last few weeks.

But it is not just Crimea. Along much of Ukraines border, analysts are seeing what they describe as a near textbook example of a modern military making final preparations for war. They cited the arrival of logistical infrastructure like hospital and communications units, elements of electronic warfare meant for disrupting enemy communications, air power and additional troops to man equipment that was deployed earlier.

What unnerves me is how methodically theyre going through this, said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Its by the book. You know whats coming next and it shows up.

The Kremlins ultimate intention remained unclear, the Ukrainian official said, echoing the determination of American officials who say that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has yet to decide whether to attack.

Russia has roughly 130,000 troops massed near Ukraines border, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say. The Kremlin has said repeatedly it has no plans to attack, and Mr. Putin while claiming that the United States was trying to goad Russia into war was less strident in his language in an appearance this week, leaving the door open for future diplomacy.

The Ukrainian militarys assessment of Russian capabilities diverges from one the Pentagon provided last week, which said that Moscow had deployed sufficient troops and military hardware to go far beyond a limited incursion into only the border regions. But it moved Ukraines military leadership closer to the American position.

And it painted a dire picture of Russian combat readiness in Crimea, an area that has drawn less attention; for months the focus has been on a Russian troop buildup in the east and, more recently, its moving of forces into Belarus on Ukraines northern border.

On top of the tens of thousands of troops already stationed in Crimea, Russia has recently deployed two additional battalion tactical groups battle ready forces of up to 1,000 troops plus tanks, armor and artillery. This includes one group of airborne troops and another that arrived with 10 trains worth of equipment and armor, the senior Ukrainian official said.

Ukrainian military officials assess that additional forces are on the way, including a subdivision of national guard troops, which could be deployed to hold territory in the event of an invasion.

Moreover, several units deployed to Crimea have been put on the Russian militarys highest state of military readiness, the official said, including marine forces based near the Kerch Strait, which separates mainland Russia from Crimea, and at the headquarters of Russias Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Troops in other locations have been put on the second highest level of alert, the official said.

Satellite images released by Maxar, a space technology company, this week confirm a buildup of forces in Crimea. They show the addition of numerous tent camps in areas close to military equipment, an indication that troops had arrived or were on the way.

Feb. 3, 2022, 2:31 p.m. ET

The senior Ukrainian official said any incursion could start with localized action and that, if successful, could prompt the Russians to expand the conflict zone. For now, theyre doing everything they can to panic us and panic the West, the official said, calling it a real game of poker.

The Crimea troops are augmented by Russian naval forces deployed to the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, a small strategic body of water over which Ukrainian and Russian forces have clashed repeatedly in recent years. Last April, Russia dispatched its Caspian Flotilla to the waters around Ukraine for exercises and left behind several large landing craft.

Ukrainian officials are now watching the movements of six Russian landing vessels capable of deploying tanks and thousands of troops that Russia has sent from its Baltic and Northern Fleets for exercises in the Mediterranean for any signs that they may continue into the Black Sea.

Its a huge assault grouping, Ihor Kabanenko, a retired admiral with the Ukrainian Navy, said. We have not enough capabilities at sea to adequately respond to such a Russian deployment.

Beyond Crimea, military analysts say it may only be a matter of weeks before the crescent of troops deployed along Ukraines northern, eastern and southern border is ready for action.

Until now, such forces might have looked menacingly large, but they lacked the supply lines and other logistical infrastructure needed to fight.

The satellite images showing row upon row of tanks that have appeared regularly in newspapers were most likely meant to send a message and force a conversation, said General Philip M. Breedlove, who was formerly the supreme allied commander of NATO.

Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.

The Kremlins position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATOs eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscows military buildupwas a response to Ukraines deepening partnership with the alliance.

Youve seen the pictures of the trucks lined up, Gen. Breedlove said. That is not in tactical or offensive formation. Thats a formation for show.

All that has started to change in recent weeks with the arrival of Iskandar-M cruise missiles, fighter jets and helicopters, according to satellite imagery, Ukrainian and western intelligence assessments and Russias own military announcements.

In some areas where Russia still does not have enough personnel to man equipment, more troops appear to be arriving daily, officials and analysts say. And there is still a question of whether the Russian military has been able to muster sufficient reserve forces for any prolonged military campaign.

In the coming weeks, Russia will likely conduct a series of military drills meant to test the preparedness of its forces, said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute based in Arlington, Va. After that, the troops need only to get in their vehicles and head for the Ukraine border, he said.

What a military operation might look at this point is hotly debated.

In late January, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Russia had deployed enough forces to invade all of Ukraine, and suggested that fighting could even extend to the streets of Kyiv, the capital, something Mr. Kofman agrees with.

The Russian military is positioning itself to be able to conduct a large scale military operation against Ukraine, and its force posture indicates that if given the order theyre going to conduct a multi-axis attack, Mr. Kofman said.

Under Ukraines assessment, Russia would be unable to sustain an invasion across different points of attack for more than a week because of a lack of supplies including ammunition, food and fuel deployed to front line positions, nor does it have sufficient reserve forces.

In most areas there are enough forces available for smaller, localized assaults that could be used as a diversion from a main attack coming from the east or south where forces are stronger, according to the assessment.

For weeks, Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has attempted to play down the severity of the Russian threat, though even he now appears to be growing more concerned.

This is not going to be a war of Ukraine and Russia, should diplomatic efforts still underway fail, Mr. Zelenksy said last week. This is going to be a European war, a full-fledged war.

Read more:
Russian Troops in Final Stages of Readiness Add to Worries for Ukraine - The New York Times