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The TAKE with Averi Harper

President Joe Biden has long promised "swift and severe costs" to Russia if it were to invade Ukraine. Now, after Russian President Vladimir Putin's declaration of a "special military operation," Biden has his chance to deliver on that promise.

Biden is slated to lay out "further consequences" for Russia in remarks from the White House Thursday. Explosions could be heard in Kyiv overnight, a possible signifier of a broader attack.

The president issued a sobering statement in response, calling the attack "unprovoked and unjustified."

"Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable," Biden said in a statement.

The state flag of Russia stands outside the Consulate General of the Russian Federation in Kharkiv, northeastern Ukraine, Feb. 23, 2022.

The Biden administration had begun to roll out a "first tranche" sanctions, related to Russian banks, oligarchs and the natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. Some GOP lawmakers have criticized Biden of not going far enough on sanctions, which haven't resulted in Russia reversing course.

But even as tensions escalate and Ukraine braces for a full-scale attack, the White House reiterated Biden's pledge not to send U.S. troops into Ukraine.

"We are not going to be in a war with Russia or putting military troops on the ground in Ukraine fighting Russia," White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Wednesday.

The RUNDOWN with Alisa Wiersema

The uncertainty of this year's election calendar following redistricting is coming to a close as two political battlegrounds gain a clearer picture of their new maps.

In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court settled on a congressional map in a 4-3 ruling following a monthslong redistricting saga. The map chosen by the court was submitted by a group of citizens and was drawn by Stanford University professor Jonathan Rodden.

A new map of congressional districts provided by the Supreme Court Of Pennsylvania is shown, Feb. 23, 2022.

The new map reflects the outcome of the 2020 Census, in which Pennsylvania lost a congressional seat. Although the court did not move the May 17 primary date, it did delay the timeline for when candidates needed to gather and file documentation to get on the ballot by a few weeks.

As reported by FiveThirtyEight, the state now has eight Republican-leaning seats, six Democratic-leaning seats and three highly competitive seats. The 17th District, which is currently represented by Rep. Conor Lamb, who is running for Senate, is one of those highly competitive areas.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, political tensions over redistricting continued on Wednesday, as a three-judge panel rejected a GOP-backed congressional map and instituted remedial maps in its place. Overnight, the state Supreme Court denied appeals from Republican lawmakers to delay the use of the maps issued by the trial panel.

The TIP with Brittany Shepherd

It's conservatives' time to shine in the Sunshine State with the kickoff of the Conservative Political Action Conference later Thursday morning. Republican ideology is getting its first primary of sorts as moderate to far-right GOP members (and even some Democrats) flock to Orlando and plot their way toward victory for the upcoming midterm election, where they anticipate fruitful returns.

Former President Donald Trump prepares to speak at a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds in Florence, Ariz., Jan. 15, 2022.

Former President Donald Trump, his son Don. Jr, party allies Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz and Sen. Marco Rubio are among those receiving top billing for this dayslong celebration in Trump's new home state. Rumored GOP 2024 contenders Govs. Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem will be in attendance. Noticeably absent is former Vice President Mike Pence, whose relationship with his former ticket-mate continues to publicly fracture. In a speech in Orlando a few weeks ago, Pence said Trump was "wrong" for suggesting he had any power in overturning election results. It's unclear if any of the Republicans present will echo Pence's message or instead dig further into false claims.

This year's CPAC is slated to have several conversations around culture-war issues that light up Republican voting bases. The event has such panels as "School Board for Dummies," "War Through Weakness, Elections Matter," "They Can't Shut Us Up!," "The Government is Dangerous to Your Health," "Sorry Stacey, you are not the Governor" and "Fire Fauci."

CPAC runs through Sunday.

NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight

30,000. That's the number of poll questions FiveThirtyEight has available to readers in its Latest Polls Page, which is home to virtually every public general-election poll for president, Senate, House and governor, virtually every public presidential primary poll, and virtually every public poll of the president's and vice president's approval ratings, other important politicians' favorability ratings and finally, the generic congressional ballot, or which party voters would support for Congress if the election was today. Bookmark this page as your one-stop shop for all your 2022 polling needs. And stay tuned, as we'll be rolling out new Senate, House and gubernatorial polling averages as soon as we have enough high-quality polls.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Start Here begins Thursday morning with ABCs Ian Pannell in Kyiv as Russian President Vladimir Putin announces military operations in Ukraine. And, the sponsor of Florida's controversial "Don't Say Gay" bill defends the legislation critics say demonizes the LGBTQ community. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back tomorrow for the latest.

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Biden has chance to deliver on 'severe' Russian sanctions: The Note - ABC News

We are ready to continue to cooperate for the next steps. Specifically we are almost ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes, Zelenskyy said on a July 25, 2019, call, the transcript of which became key evidence in Trumps first impeachment. Trump replied: I would like you to do us a favor, though, because our country has been through a lot, and Ukraine knows a lot about it.

Now Trump is seeking to undercut Bidens handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict by portraying himself as better-equipped to handle Moscow. Heres a look at how other key players in Trumps first impeachment are operating during the current Ukrainian invasion:

Bill Taylor: Taylor took over as the top U.S. envoy to Ukraine after his predecessor, Marie Yovanovitch, was removed following a conspiracy theory-laden campaign by Trump allies, led by Rudy Giuliani. During the subsequent impeachment probe, Taylor testified to investigators about concerns among Trumps handpicked advisers that the then-president had tied security aid to demands for an investigation of Joe Biden, Hunter Biden and discredited theories that blamed Ukraine, rather than Russia, for interference in the 2016 election. Recently Taylor has become a frequent presence on national TV analyzing Russias incursion into Ukraine and the Wests response.

Rudy Giuliani: Trumps longtime adviser and lawyer played an integral role in pressuring Ukrainian leaders to investigate Joe Biden, who had just entered the 2020 presidential race. Giuliani aligned himself with pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs and even a Ukrainian lawmaker since deemed by intelligence agencies to be a Russian agent. In recent days, hes joined the pro-Trump chorus criticizing Bidens handling of Ukraine.

Mike Pence: Trump pushed his vice president, a key conduit between his administration and Ukraine, to skip Zelenskyys inauguration in April 2019, a decision that came as the newly elected Ukrainian president was seeking U.S. recognition to show solidarity against Russia. Pence later met with Zelenskyy in Warsaw, where they discussed Trumps decision to freeze military assistance. Pence has tangled with Trump in recent months by publicly emphasizing that he had no authority to overturn the 2020 election, but he has also piled on Biden without mentioning earlier events or his role in the impeachment saga.

Jennifer Williams, an aide to Mike Pence, and Alexander Vindman testify on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2019, during a public impeachment hearing of President Donald Trump.|Alex Brandon/AP Photo

Alexander Vindman: A national security adviser who listened in on Trumps fateful July 2019 call with Zelenskyy, he became one of the key witnesses against Trump during the 2019-2020 impeachment process. He testified that he thought Trumps call undermined national security by essentially pressuring an ally to help the presidents domestic political fortunes. Vindman was removed from his post shortly after Trumps first trial; more recently, he sued Trumps son Donald Trump Jr., Giuliani and other close Trump allies, alleging attempted intimidation during the proceedings. Since Russia began its current invasion of Ukraine, Vindman has spoken out in support of Bidens handling of the conflict.

John Bolton: The former Trump national security adviser refused to testify during the House impeachment investigation, even as other witnesses revealed he sounded grave alarms about Trumps handling of Ukraine and called Giulianis involvement a hand grenade. Instead, Bolton waited to offer testimony until just before the Senate trial as news of his impending book began to circulate and the GOP-controlled Senate denied his offer. This year, Bolton has begun vocally criticizing Bidens handling of Ukraine despite having withheld his evidence against Trump during the key moments of the impeachment probe.

Originally posted here:
How the Ukraine invasion connects to Trump's first impeachment and where the players are now - POLITICO

He defended the Republican National Committee this month after it passed a resolution to censure Ms. Cheney and the other Republican member of the Jan. 6 committee, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois; the resolution said they were involved in the persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse. In contrast, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, castigated the party.

In private talks to donors, Mr. McCarthy often does not mention Mr. Trump as he makes his aggressive pitch about the coming red wave and what Republicans would do should they reclaim the majority.

But he is often asked whether Mr. Trump intends to run for president.

Mr. McCarthy has told donors that Mr. Trump has not yet made up his mind and that he has advised the former president to see whether President Biden runs for re-election. Mr. McCarthy also often mentions former House members who he says could make for serious presidential contenders, including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

On Capitol Hill, Mr. McCarthys basic problem comes down to math. Leadership positions in the House can be secured with a majority vote from the members of each party. But the speaker is a constitutional official elected by the whole House and therefore must win a majority at least 218 votes.

In 2015, after the most conservative House members drove the speaker, John A. Boehner, into retirement, Mr. McCarthy, then the No. 2 Republican, was the heir apparent and he blew it. His biggest public offense was a television appearance in which he blurted out that the House had created a special committee to investigate the attack on a U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, expressly to diminish Hillary Clintons approval ratings.

I said multiple times at the time, we need a speaker who can speak, recalled former Representative Jason Chaffetz, who challenged Mr. McCarthy for the speakership after the gaffe.

Ultimately, Republicans recruited Paul D. Ryan, the Ways and Means Committee chairman and former vice-presidential nominee, for the job.

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Courting G.O.P.s Mainstream and Extreme, McCarthy Plots Rise to Speaker - The New York Times

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy expects to be a happy chappy in November unless Donald Trump pushes him aside. Photo: Shutterstock

Whatever is bad for the current Democratic-controlled federal government of the United States is good for the Republican Party as it looks forward eagerly to this Novembers midterms. There is no landscape more inviting than a narrowly held trifecta for your opponents: Democrats will bear responsibility for the mood of voters troubled by a stubborn pandemic, a sudden burst of inflation, a dangerous unstable international situation, and the inability of the governing party to deliver on many of its ambitious promises. The underwhelming nature of the Democratic victory in 2020 (especially in the House, where Democrats lost seats instead of posting the gains they expected) makes hanging on to the trifecta very difficult and historically improbable, particularly given President Bidens poor job approval ratings, which have stabilized in the low 40s for the moment.

So its not surprising to see exceptional optimism emanating from Republican circles. According to The Hill, GOP strategists are now raising their own expectations and preparing for a wave that will sweep not only contests in highly competitive territory but those that could turn blue areas red:

This year, the first midterm after a presidents been elected with both houses of Congress, it sets up really well, said one GOP strategist with experience working in Colorado. And theres been nothing, literally nothing to date, that looks to disrupt a really, really positive environment for candidates running in red, purple and blue areas. Thats why the map has a really huge opportunity to stretch.

Well, theres the little matter of a Donald Trump, who threatens to take away some of the focus that typically makes midterms a referendum on the current presidents performance while also creating unnecessary primary fights that may not result in the strongest possible general-election candidates. And Republicans need to be realistic about the possible extent of their midterm gains if they want to target their resources effectively and avoid their own disappointing election. This isnt easy at a time when hype and spin and proclamations of impending total victory seem to be part of the GOPs DNA, partly thanks to the former president.

But the stretching of the map of competitive races does seem likely if the bad economic and foreign news continues. Add in the stalling of the Democratic legislative agenda in Congress and continued Republican interference with voting rights in the states and you dont have an atmosphere likely to produce strong Democratic turnout in November.

How far could Republicans reach? Pretty far, as The Hill notes:

Republicans have already begun allocating staff and money for ad buys and touting strong candidate recruitment in states like New Mexico and Colorado, which are not at the core of the midterm fight but could be caught in a red wave if it rises high enough. Connecticuts gubernatorial race and Washington states Senate election also fall in that expansion category, as do House races against some Democrats who saw double-digit wins in 2020.

Aside from the possibility of unexpected Senate and gubernatorial gains (not to mention the secretary of State races that Trump has been eyeing with bad intent), its the House that Republicans are most focused on given how close (five seats) they already are to a majority. The fact that 30 House Democrats are retiring this year (the most since 1992) is another strong omen, much like birds in flight before a big storm. As Punchbowl News reports, the head of the House GOPs campaign committee, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, is talking pretty big:

If we win 18 seats,its a larger majority than 1994, Emmer noted. If we win 30 seats, its larger than 2010. And I think the number is 32 but correct me if Im wrong If we win 32 seats, its the largest Republican majority in 100 years.

Now, that would be a wave! But as Emmer undoubtedly knows, big House gains in years like 1994 and 2010 created less than majestic majorities because they occurred when Republicans were deep in a hole going into the cycle (they had 176 seats prior to the 1994 midterms and 179 prior to 2010; they have 213 now). Thus Democrats had more exposure to losses because they held more marginal seats. A more reasonable, if still ambitious, expectation might be something like the 13 net House seats they gained in 2014. That would still make Kevin McCarthy speaker (unless some backbench House Freedom Caucusled revolt toppled him) but not with a majority much more comfortable than Nancy Pelosis today.

So Republicans currently have a wind at their backs, but a big win wont come easily to a party as extremist and sometimes chaotic as theirs.

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Republicans See Red Wave and Look to Make It Even Bigger - New York Magazine

INSURGENCYHow Republicans Lost Their Party and Got Everything They Ever WantedBy Jeremy W. Peters

When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on the morning of June 16, 2015, there was little indication the event would alter American political history. Pundits dismissed Trumps chances. He was polling at 4 percent; the head of Fox News, Roger Ailes, suggested Trump was really seeking a job at NBC, not the White House.

But Trump did make an impression on Steve Bannon, a voluble conservative activist plotting his own takeover of the Republican Party. Watching the reality-television star deliver remarks from the Trump Tower food court to a crowd that allegedly included actors who had been paid $50 to hold signs and cheer, Bannon couldnt contain himself. Thats Hitler! Bannon said. And, as Jeremy W. Peters writes in this spirited new history, he meant it as a compliment.

Insurgency chronicles the astonishingly swift transformation of the Republican Party, from the genteel preserve of pro-business elites to a snarling personality cult that views the Jan. 6 insurrection as an exercise in legitimate political discourse. Peters, a political reporter for The New York Times, depicts mainstream Republicans surrender to Trumpism as a form of political self-flagellation. From 1969 to 2008, Republicans occupied the White House for all but 12 years. And yet one of the more peculiar features of American conservatism is that despite decades of Republican rule, many true believers grew embittered and resentful of their party. They thought it was run by weak-willed leaders who compromised and sold out once they got in power.

The outlines of the Republicans hard-right turn are by now largely familiar. What distinguishes Insurgency is its blend of political acuity and behind-the-scenes intrigue. Much of the books opening material revolves around the first national figure to channel the bases anger: the former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who might have forestalled Trumps rise had she chosen to run for president in 2012. Trump was sufficiently concerned about Palins potential to claim the title of populist standard-bearer that he invited her to Trump Tower in 2011 to size her up in person. He concluded that while she had tremendous political appeal, she didnt know what to do about it.

Trump, of course, did. Peters is a fluid and engaging writer, and as the narrative of Insurgency unfolds and Trump inevitably, irresistibly, assumes center stage, you almost cant help admiring as Bannon did the candidates raw, demagogic genius: Devoid of empathy, incapable of humility and unfamiliar with what it means to suffer consequences, he behaved and spoke in ways most would never dare. In one luridly fascinating section, Peters details how Trump defused the furor over the Access Hollywood tape by ambushing Hillary Clinton with her husbands accusers at the second presidential debate in St. Louis. The stunt came about thanks to a norm-shattering partnership between the Trump campaign and Aaron Klein, a 36-year-old reporter for Bannons website, Breitbart News, who tracked down the women and cajoled them into attending.

In the history of modern presidential politics, no candidate had pulled off such a ruthless act of vengeance in public, Peters writes. It changed the game, proving to Trump and his allies that there was nothing off-limits anymore. So pivotal was Kleins role in Trumps upset victory that Jared Kushner later told him, My father-in-law wouldnt be president without you.

Anecdotes like these make Insurgency worth reading, though its harder to say who would want to. The book contains too many examples of Trumps manifest flaws to appeal to MAGA true believers, but not enough revelations of outright criminality to satisfy veterans of the #resistance. With the specter of a 2024 Trump candidacy looming, the rest of us could use a break while we can still get one. He just dominates every day, Bannon told Trumps advisers in 2020, warning of voters exhaustion with the president. Its like a nightmare. Youll do anything to get rid of it. Easier said than done.

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How Donald Trump Captured the Republican Party - The New York Times