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Flag in front of Irans Foreign Ministry building in Tehran(Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters)

There is speculation that the Vienna negotiations will conclude with a deal in the next 72 hours. Reza Zandi, an Iranian oil and gas analyst, tweeted:

Russias chief negotiator in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, is sending similar signals, saying that steps are being taken to finalise the deal:

Iran, which has been given practically every concession from spineless American negotiators, is about to gain the biggest win of all: a market desperate for oil.According to Markets Insider, in response to these hints, oil prices dropped from their highest levels since 2008:

Brent crude, the international benchmark, had been up as much as 6.1% at $119.84 before reversing course. Brent lost 3.1% then pared the decline to 0.5%. West Texas Intermediate crude had been up as much as 5.3% at $116.57, then fell by nearly 4% before paring the intraday loss to 0.4%.

As war rages on after Russias invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have exceeded $100 a barrel. With Putin showing no signs of deescalation, oil prices are likely to remain high. This means that Iran is about to inherit, as Mr. Zandi puts it, golden circumstances for a reentry into the oil market.

With Vienna negotiations coinciding with Putins invasion, some have suggested a deal with Iran as a solution to impeding oil shortages. Ellen Wald from the Atlantic Council suggested that a nuclear deal could help tamp down spiking oil prices:

Of course, there are more important national security issues involved in the relationship with Iran and those must take precedence. However, if the focus is just on the problem of high oil prices, a deal with Iran would help. There has been significant progress in negotiations over the past two weeks, and Iran analysts seem positive that a deal could be reached soon. According to the latest deal under discussion, an agreement would lift sanctions in the second phase of implementation, which could be between one and three months after signing. If this moves forward, Iran potentially could put between 67 million and 87 million barrels of condensate and crude oil that it has in storage on the global market immediately. In fact, Iran is communicating with potential buyers in Korea, a sign that they believe a deal and sanctions relief is possible.

The Islamic Republic is eager to show that it can quickly supply oil. Earlier today (auspicious timing, huh?), Iranian oil minister Javad Owji said that as soon as a deal is struck in Vienna, Iran can achieve maximum oil production capacity in less than one or two months. The Islamic Republic currentlyhas approximately 80 million barrels of oil in storage and could produce up to 1.2 million barrels a day.No wonder oil markets are in a frenzy.

But this deal wasnt meant to shore up the global oil market. This deal was meant to rein in Irans nuclear capabilities and its destabilizing behavior (it does neither, by the way). Now, Iran isnt just getting $8 million to $10 million in frozen oil money; its scoring a particularly advantageous oil market with which to fund its regional terrorist proxies.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told National Reviewthat the Iranian regime has driven their economy into the ground even before sanctions. Should sanctions be lifted, the cash infusion really will allow them to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. This is especially true for Irans terroristic proxies: A new deal and end to maximum pressure will throw a lifeline to Hezbollah. Rubin, who visited Hezbollahs territory in southern Lebanon last year, observed a major decline in Irans favorite proxy, observing that the group was losing its members in droves as the money dried up.

As if that wasnt enough, the Biden administration is allegedly planning tolift all terrorism sanctions on Iran, meaning its state sponsorship of terrorism will be unfettered and internationally approved.

Khamenei, Nasrallah, and company are likely jumping for joy. And they should be: Bidens negotiators couldnt have crafted a weaker deal at a worse time if theyd tried.

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Iran and Its Proxies Are about to Cash In on Ukraine - National Review

In a parallel universe seemingly far from Russias invasion of Ukraine, diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China and Iran are in Vienna feverishly trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The plan imposed tough constraints on Irans nuclear program in exchange for the Wests easing some sanctions but the deal fizzled after the Trump administrations withdrawal in 2018.

Now negotiators in Vienna, motivated to sign a new pact before cooperation with Russia becomes impossible, are grappling with contentious issues like sanctions relief and unresolved investigations into Irans past nuclear activity at undeclared sites.

Yet even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago. There are some important gains to be had, such as renewed limits and inspections on Irans nuclear program; there are nearly no restraints at all right now. A forum where Russia and the West continue cooperating may also be a bonus. And expanding nuclear nonproliferation agreements seems more critical than ever at a time when Putin has put Russias nuclear forces on alert.

But if expectations were low about the original deals ability to transform and stabilize the region, expectations could be even lower this time. Trumps withdrawal from the 2015 deal and the subsequent Iranian nuclear violations and military escalation have altered the region for the worse. Several challenges thus remain even if the Vienna negotiations succeed.

First, President Bidens ambitions to achieve a longer and stronger deal to build on the 2015 terms seem unrealistic. At this stage, just salvaging the original constraints would be an achievement.

A revived deal might not be what Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett disparages as a shorter and weaker deal, which he claims would expire within 2 years, or in 2025. In reality, many of the constraints in areas including uranium enrichment levels and stockpiling, as well as inspection mechanisms, were set to last up to 15 years; some aspects of the deal were indefinite. A revived deal could meaningfully delay Irans nuclear progress by more than 2 years.

But from the start, neither the Biden administration nor the new hard-line Iranian leadership under President Ebrahim Raisi has been in a hurry to negotiate. Both sides face considerable domestic opposition to reviving an agreement.

A revived deal might exclude some important issues such as missiles, which have become a dire military threat on their own even without being linked to nuclear capacities. Had a nuclear agreement been in effect since 2015, perhaps the signatories could now be building on it to address such concerns, rather than starting over.

A second challenge is that Israeli-Iranian escalation may become more difficult to contain this time around. Israels attacks on Iran and Iranian-aligned groups in Syria have continued and even expanded since 2015. Israel had paused sabotage and assassination attacks once nuclear negotiations started after 2012 on an interim deal. Those attacks remained on pause following the final 2015 accord, but after Trumps withdrawal, Israels attacks on Iranian nuclear sites resumed, even on the eve of negotiations to revive the deal in April 2021. If Israel does not believe a renewed agreement sufficiently constrains Irans program, or considers the timeline too short, attacks could continue even if Iran complies.

A third challenge will loom if these talks succeed: There may be no more do-overs. If the next American administration again withdraws from the agreement, or if Iran violates its terms because the provided economic relief is not sufficient, the agreement will almost certainly not be salvaged again. Mistrust could be too high.

Iran may reconsider its stated position to remain a non-nuclear state if it feels it has little to lose by going nuclear and more to gain with a nuclear deterrent. The West may be too distracted with global crises and great power competition to expend the political capital to find a way back to the negotiating table. The international community may just accept a status quo of muddling through with Iran as a nuclear threshold state.

None of these futures is particularly appealing. But an even worse future would be to face global volatility like were seeing today, but with another nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. The reemergence of the Iran nuclear deal should prompt a sigh of relief. But a regional order that is genuinely stable and peaceful remains a distant goal.

Dalia Dassa Kaye is an adjunct political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Rand Corp. and a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations.

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Op-Ed: Reviving the Iran nuclear deal would just be a start - Los Angeles Times

Shifting regional geopolitical dynamics are creating new alliances and competition.

With the election of President Joe Biden's administration in the US and the continued Americanpivot to Asia, regional dynamics in the Middle East have entered a new phase. All states are adjusting their policies to this new reality, but Iran, in particular, hopes to use this next period to expand its regional zone of influence. While regional states are entering new alliances to limit Iran, Trkiye in particular may enter a new phase of competition with the Islamic Republic.

The Obama administrations Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) paved the way for further Iranian aggression in the Middle East. It wasSaudi Arabia that tried to confront Iran, engaging in several proxy wars with the Islamic Republic eventually losing ground and surrendering its influence in the region. Stuck in Yemen for years, Saudi Arabia no longer has meaningful tools to limit Iran in Syria and Iraq.

However, the election of Donald Trump, who exited the nuclear deal and pursued a maximum pressure campaign on Iran, gave Arab countries in the Middle East a period of reprieve from worrying about Tehrans reach. Some Arab states concentrated on limiting Trkiye instead, as they perceived Turkish influence on the Arab world as a direct threat to regime survival.

Iran, on the other hand, played thelong game. As the US increasingly turns its focus to China and Russia, Iran is anticipating an opportunity to consolidate its gains and increase its regional leverage.

Warning shots

In January, Iranian-backed Houthi and other militias targeted the UAE with drones and missiles, signalling Iranian capabilities to target the oil-rich Arab states. It was a warning shot clearly received in the Gulf nation. If Iran successfully negotiates a new nuclear deal and is relieved of economic sanctions, Tehran will be able to continue its policies of regional aggression via local proxies.

Cognizant of this new reality, the UAE is trying hard not only tonormalise relations with Trkiye but also to evolve it into a strategic partnership for its national security and economic interests. Years of rivalry with Ankara have taught Abu Dhabi of the formers capabilities, and it appears that it now wants Trkiye by its side.

Israel, too, appears toaccept that itneeds Trkiye. The recent normalisation of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv will further expand the emerging alliance in the Middle East to contain Iran. The expectation of a more aggressive Iran one could say may have been a catalyst for the rapprochement of Israel and the UAE with Trkiye.

The importance of local partners

While all of the states have their military, economic and other capabilities they can wield against Tehran, it is Trkiye that has local partners in the key sites of Iranian expansion.

Without local partner forces, no state can confront Iran in the Middle East, as the Iranian playbook is based on proxy forces and proxy wars. Without strong local partners to confront Iran, their proxies will win.

In Syria, the Syrian Interim Government and its military, the Syrian National Army, are crucial to confront any possible Iranian aggression. Ankaras strong relations with the Syrian Interim Government may prove essential in limiting Iran. The Syrian National Army has proven its combat efficiency and is a powerfulanti-Iranian force in the Middle East. Most notably, Turkish drones and Trkiye-supported soldiers of the Syrian National Army haveeliminated dozens of Iranian-backed Shia militias in Idlib.

In Iraq, Turkish counterterrorism operations against the PKK terror group have reacheda new stage in which the Iranian-Turkish rivalry over Iraqi politics will decide the fate of the PKK. Trkiye wants to aid the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdish Regional Government to re-establish sovereignty over territories currently held by the terror group. Iran wants toshield the PKK to keep Trkiye busy in the north of Iraq and therefore guarantee long-lived Iranian leverage over domestic Iraqi affairs.

In this manner, the results of the recent elections and the formation of a new government are crucial. Iranian allies lost, while the Sadr Movement won, and Turkish allies like the KDP and the Sunni parties won many seats in parliament. It was Trkiye thatbrought the Sunni Iraqi parties together.

Therefore, recent Turkish counterintelligence operations againstIranian cells in Trkiye could be just the beginning of a new era of Turkish-Iranian competition and regional alliances.

It appears that the UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Interim Government, the Kurdish Regional Government, the Iraqi Central Government, the anti-Iranian forces in Lebanon, and other Arab states will bet on Trkiye to limit further Iranian aggression.

An increase in Turkish arms sales to the Gulf States, as well as growing economic and military cooperation, can be expected. Regional states that fear Iranian drone attacks and Iranian proxies will want to learn from the Turkish experience.

For Trkiye, its regional interests and the success of its counterterrorism operations will depend on limiting Iran. If Iran manages to achieve another wave of successes like it did against Saudi Arabia during the Obama administration, the results may be irreversible.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

We welcome all pitches and submissions to TRT World Opinion please send them via email, to opinion.editorial@trtworld.com

Source: TRT World

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A new era of Turkish-Iranian competition may be on the horizon - TRT World

Recently, New York (NY) States Cannabis Control Board (the Board) took significant steps towards implementing the Marijuana Regulation and Taxation Act. Specifically, on February 17, 2022, the Board approved Medical Cannabis Program regulations to be released for public comment, including proposed marijuana marketing regulations. In addition, on February 22, the NY Governor signed into law a bill that permits farmers to obtain conditional adult-use cultivator and processor licenses to grow, process and distribute cannabis flower products in 2022. With the imminent implementation of NYs recreational Adult-Use Cannabis Program, businesses that are interested in marketing marijuana to NY citizens should consult with knowledgeable marketing attorneys concerning how to meet their statutory compliance obligations.

Marijuana Marketing: Dos and Donts

The Medical Cannabis Program regulations include comprehensive NY marijuana advertising regulations (Section 113.17 Cannabis Marketing and Advertising). While the regulations focus on medical marijuana, many of the advertising regulations will apply to all types of marijuana marketing in NY.

Do. According to NYs Cannabis Marketing and Advertising regulations, marijuana farmers and distributors that participate in marijuana marketing must:

Dont. In contrast, marijuana farmers and distributors must not:

Please note that the Cannabis Marketing and Advertising regulations are proposed legislation right now. Following the public comment period, the NY marijuana marketing and advertising regulations may change and look significantly different from how they do today. In light of these requirements, restrictions and potential changes thereto, it is recommended that marijuana advertisers consult with knowledgeable marketing attorneys concerning how to meet their statutory compliance obligations.

KleinMoynihan Turcomaintains an extensive practice in the fields of Internet and mobile marketing law, consumer data privacy law, sweepstakes and promotions law,fantasy sports and gaming law,intellectual property and general corporate law. If we can be of assistance, please visithttps://kleinmoynihan.comor call us at(212) 246-0900.

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Let's Get into the Weed of It: A Guide to Marijuana Marketing - Lexology

The days of the one-size-fits all social media approach are seemingly over. Advertisers say the way people use social media is changing, pressuring brands to abandon broad campaigns and instead create content for each individual platform.

Theres this idea that because its social, [and] its called social, theyre all the same. And theyre not all the same, said Karen Piper, director of strategy at GROW digital agency. Its like this false notion that weve had for like the past 10 or 15 years, like digital lets us reach everyone.

As the social media landscape becomes more competitive, it also becomes more nuanced, according to advertisers. Competition for user attention and media dollars has led platforms to roll out more individualized product features for users and advertisers. And in the digital age, people are increasingly weary of being advertised to, meaning advertisers have to fit their creative into each platform more seamlessly to reach their desired audience.

Its making them focus on the platforms where [customers are] experiencing the advertising instead of just the brands and what the brand has to say, Piper said.

As Brandon Biancalani, head of paid media at social agency Modifly, put it, the ad experience has to become endemic to the platform. Meaning, users are looking for ads to be an unintrusive part of their social media experience, and advertisers will need to be more mindful of how they appear on each platform.

Thats kind of been an ode since the beginning of internet marketing; people dont want things shoved down their throat, Biancalani said. Instead, we have seen success with user-generated content snippets, entertaining product value videos, and use of relevant trends.

For a large swath of advertisers, social media is the go-to platform to authentically get in front of a generation of shoppers who increasingly do not want to be advertised to. Historically, brands have had a set-it-and-forget-it approach, setting up social media business managers and running ads across platforms, per Biancalani. But as peoples social media habits change, advertisers will need to take a more granular approach. Its part of the reason influencer marketing is booming right now, he added.

Theres a lot of business integrations now on these platforms that I feel like a lot of brands arent fully taking advantage of, he said. Specifically, they just want to set up their business manager and start running ads and theres a lot of integrations now for businesses to be literally seen even organically in these platforms.

Its something that Biancalani said Pinterest and TikTok have done well. TikTok users are more likely to resonate with ad creative that is real and native to the platform. Meanwhile a hard sale, product conversion video may better resonate with Facebook audiences, he added.

Its not a peanut butter spread approach, said Sennai Atsbeha, vp of brand marketing at Gymshark apparel company.We cant approach every community with the same strategy.

As the nine-year-old brand looks to scale and reach new audiences, Atsbeha said the social-first company ensures an authentic partnership with each influencer it works with based on that influencers platform of choice.

That content is very different from some of these other platforms, he said. So its important that we understand what makes the content different, what makes that athlete or that individual special within that space.

Its a similar story at State Bags company, where CMO Meghan Holzhauer said the brand works with a lot of content creators and influencers to keep the ad creative feeling native to the platform.

This UGC style creator content has consistently been some of our best performing creative so were doubling down on the strategy, Holzhauer said in an email.

With each passing generation, shoppers are getting smarter and more particular about how and where they interact with brands, according to Courtney Berry, managing director at Barbarian, a creative digital agency. Going forward, the changes are going to push advertisers to think about social media advertising in the context of a full-funnel marketing strategy one with multiple parts, she said.

Thinking through all of that complexity and that nuance at the beginning of the campaign is very crucial, she added.

https://digiday.com/?p=440611

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Its not a peanut butter spread approach: How advertisers are adapting to a more nuanced social landscape - Digiday