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The question persists: Why did Glenn Youngkin win in a blue state? Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP/Shutterstock

Understandably, the loss of three statewide contests in previously blue-trending Virginia last November was shocking to Democrats. Interpretations of what went wrong there are having a heavy effect on how the party perceives its weaknesses heading into the 2022 midterms, so its pretty important to get it right but it doesnt seem thats whats happening.

The prevailing conventional wisdom has been that Republican Glenn Youngkin won and Democrat Terry McAuliffe lost because suburban swing voters upset about education and, to a lesser extent, economic issues switched from voting Democrat to Republican between 2020 and 2021. Indeed, a lot of influential focus-group work on the election began with the assumption that these voters made the difference and tried to interpret why they swung rather than how far they swung and how much it mattered. And the more that analysts dwelled on education issues as crucial, the more they agreed that school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic may have damaged Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey (where Democratic governor Phil Murphy had a surprisingly narrow winning margin) even more than Republican attacks on the alleged teaching of critical race theory or other culture-war topics related to schools.

Now comes a new study from the data-analysis firm TargetSmart that calls this narrative into question even more than past dissents. As TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier notes, comparing the Virginia results to data on school closures calls into question the idea that the latter affected the former:

Of the top 10 counties in Virginia ranked by days with in-person education during the 2020-2021 school year, 6 of the 10 saw a larger swing towards Republicans than the state average swing of 5.3%, while the remaining 4 counties saw a slightly below average GOP swing. In fact, the biggest swings towards Republicans occurred in southwestern Virginia, where schools were open for in person instruction for most of the year.

Conversely, those counties that conducted virtual learning for most of the 2020-2021 school year saw a smaller shift towards Republicans than the state average the top 10 counties for days spent in virtual learning in 2020-2021 saw a 3.8% average swing towards Republicans, well below the statewide average of 5.3%.

More generally, TargetSmart took a look at the voter-file information recently made available by Virginia and drew attention to some rather dramatic turnout numbers that seemed to suggest parents of school-age children in the Washington and Richmond suburbs werent the keys to this election:

Turnout among voters age 75 or olderincreased by 59%, relative to 2017 while turnout among voters under age 30 only increased by just 18%. Notably, turnout of all other age groups combined (18-74), which would likely include parents of school-aged children, only increased by 9% compared to 2017.

These are massive changes in the electorate in an election that was far from a blowout: Youngkin won by just 2%.

Its common for seniors to turn out to vote significantly more than younger cohorts in non-presidential elections. But the figures for Virginia in 2021 were unusually large:

Voters age 65 and older are an estimated15.9%of Virginias population according to the census, yet accounted for 31.9% of all ballots cast in 2021.

348,314 more seniors (ages 65+) voted in Virginias2021gubernatorial election than in the2016presidential election.

TargetSmart calls it a silver surge. Whatever you call it, it seems to suggest that variable turnout patterns rather than swing voting was the biggest deal in Youngkins win. Its also what a December analysis in FiveThirtyEight of precinct-level data showed, indicating that the big net gains by Youngkin were in Democratic- and Republican-base areas, not in highly competitive swing areas. And for that matter, thats what the much-discounted exit polls suggested, as Ron Brownstein pointed out right after the election:

None of this is to say that Youngkins victory over McAuliffe was some sort of aberration or that it shouldnt alarm Democrats. But what it takes to boost turnout by Democrats without further boosting turnout by Republicans is not the same as what it takes to persuade a narrowly defined suburban swing vote upset principally about schools. Narratives matter, and Democrats should take care to ensure they arent telling themselves the wrong story.

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Democrats Learned the Wrong Lessons From Losing Virginia - New York Magazine

A candidate for the Democratic nomination for Dover alderman believes he can separate his personal views on abortion from his actions as an elected official.

Marcos Tapia, Sr. lost his seat in the 2021 primary by six votes after Gov. Phil Murphy endorsed his three running mates but skipped over him because of a Facebook post highlighting his pro-life position.

As a Catholic, I believe life begins at conception. As a politician, I would never seek to legislate that belief, said Tapia. The indisputable fact is that reproductive rights are a constitutional right. This is not something I would ever seek to undermine as a public official. Not now, not ever.

Tapis is seeking a return to local government this year, challenging incumbent Carlos Valencia in the Democratic primary.

Morris Democrats are still reeling over a controversy last fall when some activists pulled support of a county commissioner candidate after finding out that he was a pro-life activist who had never disclosed their views to him.

Now Tapia, who said his Facebook was careless and an error in judgment, is positioning himself as a Joe Biden Democrat on the abortion issue.

I recognize that the health complications of a pregnant woman and that of the being growing in her womb may justify the need for an abortion, he said. This is a decision that should be left to the woman, her doctor, and her family. No government official should be involved in this delicate matter.

Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said there is room in the Democratic Party for candidates who disagree on issues.

Theres no question the party with the bigger, broader tent wins; the question is whether any candidate can have credibility within both the pro-life and pro-choice camps at the same time, Rasmussen said. Voters interested in abortion can listen to his rationale and reach their own decisions. But I doubt whether the presence of a single pro-life candidate will dampen enthusiasm for the entire ticket.

As Morris County Democratic Chairman Chip Robinson weights whether to award the line to candidates backed by Dover Democratic Municipal Chairman Edward Correa or to Tapia and his running mate, Karol Ruiz, the assistant deputy state public defender, hell need to decide whether support for a local candidate whose views on abortion are not the same as other Democrats is in the greater good of the party.

You could certainly see it constraining the county organizations fund-raising ability, Rasmussen said. Ultimately the members need to balance that with funding the best candidates willing to run.

Some Democrats in the New Jersey Legislature are personally pro-life. Several abstained on a vote earlier this year to codify Roe v. Wade into State law and State Sen. Fred Madden (D-Washington), the Gloucester County Democratic Chairman, voted no.

I just dont know that theres a single, disqualifying issue, Rasmussen said. Pro-choicers arent satisfied with the moderate legislative majority, but I dont know that it has cost them. Its a balance. And ultimately, I think you fall on the side of the bigger tent.

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Pro-life Democrat says personal views won't interfere with government role if he wins - New Jersey Globe | New Jersey Politics

Why this Democratic Party official attend a Republican-leaning conference: I wanted to help

Matt Grodsky| Arizona Republic

By Matt Grodsky

With the threat of authoritarianism looming and a hostile faction threatening a democratic nation, it is incumbent upon us to support and coordinate with the insurgency.

Im not talking about Ukraine. I am describing Democrats supporting Republican refugees within the insurgency of the GOP, people who belonged to the party of Reagan and now find themselves impressed into the party of Trump.

Thats why I traveled to Washington, D.C., to take part in the Principles First conference, a gathering of moderate Republicans many of whom are actively working to restore the GOP and cleanse it of Trumpism.

Some of my Democratic colleagues might wonder why this was a worthwhile endeavor for someone working to elect Democrats?

Shouldnt I be enjoying the implosion of the GOP?

No.Our democracy works best with a two-party system, in which both bodies operate in good-faith for the best of our nation. One-party dominance is not the answer. So while I work to elect Democrats, I also want to help eliminate extremists from the GOP.

Both parties have their bad eggs, but only one has been hijacked by them. Yes, there has been political warfare since the founding of America. Political parties have shifted and evolved throughout our history, but members of both sides ultimately always worked together for our common interests.

We have never had one party with such blatant anti-American sentiment as the modern GOP. The party of George H.W. Bush has been overrun by Putinites, insurrectionists and conspirators.

They have isolated the moderates in their ranks who still believe in our democratic-republic. This has led to the Democratic Party being the only safe option for voters. This is not sustainable for our government.

It impairs our ability to legislate and puts us on a burning high-wire every election cycle, repeatedly presenting the stark choice between authoritarianism and democracy.

You wouldnt want a professional basketball team to play in the finals against a team of suicide bombers. Yet thats what we have been seeing in our elections one party endeared to our democratic norms, the other overrun by fanatics.

One bad performance for Democrats could send us into the abyss. In that scenario, we had better be sure the right kind of Republican is holding key elected offices when democracy is threatened.

Had someone like Arizonastate Rep. Mark Finchem been handling things in Georgia, 2020 would have ended with substantially more drama.

The reality is the GOP is not a monolith. Many Republicans are being held hostage within their party by radical elements. It should not be assumed that they identify with them.

Most of these hostages are willing and able to build a coalition. In fact, when I was the director of communications for the Arizona Democratic Party in 2020, speaking to this audience,was a key component of our strategy and it paid off.

It is not inevitable that the Republicans of yore will reclaim their party without help. So I went to engage with Republicans in hopes of identifying collaborative ways to elevate moderates in their party primaries - funding PACs, working together to dismantle radical candidates and elected officials, establishing sound communications strategies, nationwide candidate recruitment, and more.

There were many like-minded people at Principles First.

Several voiced support for President Joe Biden and democratic policies. The event included Rep. Adam Kinzinger, David Frum, Bill Kristol, Charlie Sykes, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, and it honored heroes like U.S. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman.

Most of the people I interacted with identified themselves as being lost in the political wilderness, cut out of todays GOP but still beholden to the traditional principles of their pre-Trump party.

Most notably, they recognized the value of a strong two-party system. When I asked people why they didnt just leave their party to become Democrats or independents, many of them, like my Republican colleague Adrian Bakke, answered Because I was here first. This is my party, I cant abandon it to this.

I had plenty of disagreements with attendees on a myriad of issues. But our most concrete areas of common ground were that Jan. 6 was an insurrection, Trumpism is bad, Putin is evil, and Lets go Brandon is a dumb slogan.

In the event the Trump fever doesnt break before 2024, forgotten Republicans in their party should reach out to Democrats. I encourage Democrats to reach back across the chasm.

We need to help them reclaim their party so that we can get back to competing against people we disagree with, not people hell bent on upending democracy. Coalitions are what bring change, not one-party messaging.

Trust me, I want Democrats to win. Im not doing this because I support the policies of the traditional Republican Party, nor am I doing this because I want more obstructionists in moderate clothing (see our senior senator).

I want us to have a voter registration advantage in Arizona, I want our commonsense policies adopted at the state and federal level. But I also want whats best for our republic in the long term.

Matt Grodsky is vice president and director of public affairs at Matters of State Strategies. He previously served as the director of communications for the Arizona Democratic Party from 2019 to 2021. He is a Democratic precinct committeeman in Legislative District 28 and an Arizona Democratic Party state committee member. Follow him Twitter: @mattgrodsky.

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I'm a Democrat who infiltrated the Republicans - The Arizona Republic

The Biden Administration has just passed an executive order furthering research into crypto assets in view of regulating them, but politicians within the ruling Democrat party remain deeply divided on digital currency.

The lack of consensus among Democrats could mean that a progressive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies could still be a long way off, but also makes it more likely the eventual regulations wont be too harsh thanks to the work of crypto-friendly representatives. The crypto community is familiar with the names cropping up time and time again in the digital asset debate.

On one side of the Democratic party, you have vehemently anti-crypto politicians such as Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown and on the other side, the pro-innovation camp are the likes of Congress members Ritchie Torres and Jim Himes.

The division runs deep, and political wrangling could further delay any regulatory processes in the United States.

Senator Warren recently crafted a bill to restrict crypto exchanges to prevent digital assets from being used for sanctions evasion. However, it has been widely reported that Russia will not switch to cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions, even if so individual Russians do.

Warren has continued her war on crypto with letters to the Treasury urging further crackdowns on the industry. According to reports, she recently criticized the banking system, adding, in reference, crypto:

Fortunately, several Democrat lawmakers favor the crypto industry and the innovation it will bring to the U.S. financial system. One such policymaker is New York representative Ritchie Torres who said, the project of radically decentralizing the internet and finance strikes me as a profoundly progressive cause, before adding:

Related: Bidens executive order promises great things for the crypto industry Eventually

Democrat Josh Gottheimer, who represents New Jersey, has pushed plans to regulate cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Last month, he presented the Stablecoin Innovation and Protection Act, stating, at the time, that the expansion of cryptocurrency offers tremendous potential value for our economy.

Four Democrats put their names to a bipartisan letter sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday. Gottheimer and Torres signed, of course, along with Florida representative Darren Soto and Massachusetts Congressman Jake Auchincloss.

Republican congressman Tom Emmer drafted the letter, which was also signed by three other Republicans, addressing the issue of overburdening crypto companies with excessive reporting requests and increased scrutiny of the industry by the agency.

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Democrat division over crypto isnt all bad news for regulation - Cointelegraph

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to members of Congress on Wednesday and pointedly highlighted President BidenJoe BidenRepublican senators introduce bill to ban Russian uranium imports Energy & Environment Ruling blocking climate accounting metric halted Fauci says officials need more than .5B for COVID-19 response MOREs role in helping to stop the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, some Democrats worried that he was handing Republicans a new talking point.

Despite there being an uncommon bipartisanship in Washington for wanting to help the Ukrainians, Republicans have tried for months to drive a narrative of Biden being a weak leader, and Zelenskys words, even Democrats acknowledge, could become fodder in the midterm election season.

I think its a very real possibility, said one Democratic strategist. I know we keep saying were doing everything we can, but clearly theres a lot more we could be doing, and Im not just talking about sending in troops.

You could easily see Republicans making hay out of it, the strategist added.

During the final moments of his virtual speech to lawmakers on Wednesday, Zelensky switched to English for emphasis when speaking directly to Biden: You are the leader of the nation, of your great nation. I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.

Since the start of the Russian invasion last month, Democrats and Republicans have been more united on Ukraine than any other issue in recent memory. During Bidens State of the Union address, for example, supportfor the war-torn country was one of the few issues that received rousing applause from both sides of the aisle.

But some Republicans have tried to cast Biden as weak in his response to the crisis and continued to do so after Zelenskys address to lawmakers in the Capitol.

Sen. John KennedyJohn Neely KennedyLouisiana Democrat running for US Senate smokes marijuana in campaign ad MORE (R-La.) accused Biden of having a Bambis baby brother moment, while Sen. John CornynJohn CornynGOP talking point could turn to Biden's 'underwhelming' Russia response Capito to make Senate GOP leadership bid Graham to meet with Biden's Supreme Court pick Tuesday MORE (R-Texas) said, The Biden administrations timidity in the face of this evil needs to end.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellGOP talking point could turn to Biden's 'underwhelming' Russia response The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - What now after Zelensky's speech? Capito to make Senate GOP leadership bid MORE (R-Ky.) said following the Ukrainian presidents address that Biden needed to step up his game, a day after singling out what he dubbed the administrations hesitancy and weakness in the face of Russian President Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinRepublican senators introduce bill to ban Russian uranium imports Hillicon Valley Invasion complicates social media policy Defense & National Security Blinken details Russia's possible next steps MORE.

Putin has not pulled his punches as a thank you to President Biden for pulling his punches, McConnell said in remarks on the Senate floor Tuesday.

The conservative-leaning New York Post also ran a headline: In lesson for Biden, Zelensky shows what true leadership looks like.

Republican strategist John Feehery, a contributor to The Hill, said Zelenskys comments do dovetail with the Republican narrative forming around Biden on the issue of Russia-Ukraine.

I think there will be a lot of Republicans who ask for the White House to be more forceful based on Zelenskys comments, Feehery said. The president hasnt been very forceful and throughout this whole thing he had decent intelligence and they didnt do anything about it. He said were going to do sanctions and they kind of sucked. Everything is underwhelming.

Republicans will jump on this, Feehery continued. I think Biden is, in many ways, congratulating himself for his restraint and the aid hes given, but its cold comfort to the Ukrainians.

Feehery added that it isnt a closed question about how Republicans handle Bidens perceived weakness on Ukraine in the months ahead.

Usually in wartime, the country comes together and the president gets a boost, and I dont think it's happening this time, he said. The country has come together but Biden hasnt gotten a boost, and I think it's because he's leading from behind.

Still, Biden has gotten relatively strong public support for his handling of the Ukraine situation and particularly his responses to Russia such as imposing sanctions.

A Pew Research Center survey released earlier this week found that 47 percent of Americans polled approve of the Biden administrations handling of the Russian invasion, while 39 percent disapprove and 13 percent are unsure. A whopping 85 percent of surveyed Americans support maintaining strict economic sanctions on Russia, the survey found.

Biden responded to Zelenskys address Wednesday by announcing a robust shipment of military assistance to Ukraine, including drones, small arms,and anti-aircraft systems, and he said his administration is helping Ukraine acquire longer range air defense systems.

Meanwhile, the administration has thus far resisted calls to send to Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine due to the possibility of it escalating the conflict, and the U.S. and NATO have rejected Zelenskys pleas for a no-fly zone for similar reasons.

How President Biden makes decisions is through the prism of our own national security, White House press secretary Jen PsakiJen PsakiHealth Care Pelosi shoots higher on COVID-19 funding Defense & National Security Blinken details Russia's possible next steps Biden says US is open to help Ukrainian refugees MORE told reporters during a briefing Wednesday. And as we've said before, a no-fly zone would require implementation, it would require us potentially shooting down Russian planes, NATO shooting down Russian planes. And we are not interested in getting into World War III.

Republicans have also had to grapple with divisions in their party over how to handle Putin, after four years during which former President TrumpDonald TrumpGOP talking point could turn to Biden's 'underwhelming' Russia response House Oversight Committee opens investigation into New Mexico 2020 election audit Hunter Biden paid off tax liability amid ongoing grand jury investigation: report MORE talked warmly of the Russian leader. Many GOP lawmakers have pushed back on Trumps more recent comments about Putin being smart and savvy. Trump was also impeached in 2019 for withholding military aid from Ukraine as he sought an investigation into Biden and his son.

Some say Republicans need to tread lightly in their criticisms of Biden.

I think Republicans need to walk a careful line between showing Putin that our country is united while criticizing Bidens approach, added Alex Conant, a Republican strategist. Thats why most of the criticism has been very muted to date.

Republican strategist Doug Heye said its possible Zelenskys words about Biden could come up in political ads.

But he said its dependent on two things: Events in Ukraine and what Congress is willing to do.

So far, he said, in the early days of the war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has only come up in one ad in a North Carolina Senate GOP primary and is focused on a candidates words about Putin.

Others in the GOP say its unlikely that Republicans delve into that territory.

One never ceases to be amazed at the imagination of attack ads, but I doubt Zelenskys clarion call for U.S. assistance will redound to Bidens disadvantage, said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive officer at the Center for a New American Security who served as a foreign policy adviser to the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainGOP talking point could turn to Biden's 'underwhelming' Russia response Graham invokes McCain in latest call to take out Putin Juan Williams: Biden must rebut GOP attacks on war MORE (R-Ariz.). The reality is that the administration has done a great deal for Ukraine and is prepared to do even more.

Anyone casting the response as somehow weak should specify what theyd do instead and the benefits and risks that alternative proposals would generate, Fontaine added. Otherwise its just empty criticism.

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Democrats worry Zelensky offered GOP key talking point | TheHill - The Hill