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Summers: US recession likely within two years – Washington Examiner

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Sunday that a recession is likely within the next two years.

The former Obama administration official's prediction comes on the heels of an unexpected jump in the inflation rate announced on Friday. Summers's statement stands in contrast to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's claim last week that a recession is not in the works.

WHITE HOUSE TALKS UP 'HISTORIC' ECONOMY AS INFLATION-WEARY VOTERS DOUBT BIDEN

I think theres certainly a risk of recession in the next year, Summers said on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday. I think given where weve gotten to, its more likely than not that well have a recession within the next two years.

Summers, who served as treasury secretary under former President Bill Clintonand as director of the National Economic Council under former President Barack Obama, has been outspoken in warning that President Joe Biden's economic policies are damaging the country.

In March 2021, Summers blasted Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan as the least responsible macroeconomic policy weve had in the last 40 years and warned that it would set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation."

Inflation soared to 8.6% for the 12 months ending in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday, despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.

There are concerns that the Feds aggressive interest rate hikes, in an effort to stave off inflation, could plunge the economy into a recession.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) predicted last week that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until they reach the level of inflation.

I think the Federal Reserve is going to keep putting [interest rates] up a half a point every time they meet. I think that happens probably every four to six weeks until they reach the inflation rate," Paul said last week. "And inflation rate is 8.5%, and we're closer to the Fed funds rate being around 3% or so."

I think that that's in our future, but I think a recession and high unemployment is, too, and that's the way inflation gets cured," Paul added.

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Yellen, however, dismissed talk of a recession last week, saying, Dont look to me to announce it, while insisting that the fundamentals of the economy are strong as inflation rages.

Im not going to announce it. I dont think were going to have a recession, she said. Consumer spending is very strong. Investment spending is solid. I expect growth to slow down. We have a very strong economy. I know people are very upset, and rightfully so, about inflation. But theres nothing to suggest inflation if a recession is in the works.

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Summers: US recession likely within two years - Washington Examiner

Norton to Highlight Republican Efforts to Overturn D.C. Gun Violence Prevention Laws at Hearing, Wednesday – House.gov

WASHINGTON, D.C. Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) will highlight Republican efforts to overturn the District of Columbias gun violence prevention laws at tomorrows Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing on the nations gun violence epidemic. Without statehood, a future Republican Congress could overturn D.C.s gun violence prevention laws. In previous Congresses, Republicans have introduced legislation to eliminate D.C.s gun violence prevention laws, including its ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines and its universal background checks.

With the recent tragedy in Uvalde, Texas, I am grateful that Chairwoman Maloney is holding tomorrows extremely timely hearing, Norton said. The District of Columbia has worked to protect its citizens by enacting common-sense gun violence prevention laws, including banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. I am mindful that a future Republican Congress could overturn the laws of the duly elected D.C. Council and will highlight that possibility in tomorrows hearing. While I have defeated each effort in Congress to overturn D.C.s gun violence prevention laws, the ultimate remedy for congressional interference in local D.C. matters is statehood for D.C.

The following current Republican Members of Congress have introduced bills or amendments during their tenures to overturn D.C. gun violence prevention laws: Senator Rand Paul (KY), Senator Marco Rubio (FL), Senator Joni Ernst (IA), Representative Jim Jordan (OH), Representative Thomas Massie (KY), Representative Louie Gohmert (TX), and Representative David Schweikert (AZ).

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Norton to Highlight Republican Efforts to Overturn D.C. Gun Violence Prevention Laws at Hearing, Wednesday - House.gov

Bill Straub: Despite tired ‘guns-don’t-kill’ and ‘good-guys-with-guns’ narratives, guns remain the problem – User-generated content

Anyone who has ever watched an old episode of The Untouchables or the Coen Brothers Millers Crossing (highly recommended) is no doubt familiar with the Thompson submachine gun, popularly known as the Tommy gun, a weapon favored during its heyday by the likes of Al Capone, John Dillinger and George Kelly Barnes, whose penchant for the device earned him the tantalizing sobriquet Machine Gun Kelly.

The Tommy gun was a particularly vicious piece of work, capable of ripping off 700 to 800 rounds per minute. The so-called Chicago Typewriter (gotta love that) was invented in 1918 for military use but adopted by various gangsters during the Prohibition Era for their own nefarious purposes, mowing down anyone including innocents within range.

Authorities eventually came to the conclusion that the weapons role in the ever-expanding number of dead bodies and buckets of blood rendered it hardly worth preserving. So, in 1934, Congress passed the National Firearms Act, which, among other things, required those possessing a Tommy gun to register it with the Treasury Department, be fingerprinted, pay a heavy tax $200, which today would come to about $4,000 and be listed on a national registry. Violating the act could result in up to 10 years in federal prison and forfeiture of all devices or firearms found in violation.

Lo and behold, miracle of miracles, sales of machine guns plummeted and the violence declined. According to The Washington Post, By 1937, federal officials reported that the sale of machine guns in the United States had practically ceased. In 1939, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that law didnt violate the Constitution.

While thousands of Tommy guns remained in circulation, anyone caught violating the provisions of the National Firearms Act could have the weapons confiscated and charged with tax evasion.

It is a good example of something that is little known, which is a gun control law that was pretty effective in keeping such weapons out of civilian hands, said Dr. Robert Spitzer a political scientist at the State University of New York at Cortland, during an interview with National Public Radio in 2013.

Congress took matters a step further in 1986 when it considered the Firearms Owners Protection Act, a measure that made it illegal for civilians to buy or sell any machine gun. The bill passed and was signed by the patron saint of conservative Republicans, President Ronald Reagan.

For good measure, it carried the support of now get this the National Rifle Association.

Now lets move forward a bit. By the 1990s the nation faced another plague of gun violence, this one brought on by the narcotics trade, just as the violence during the Roaring 20s was brought on by bootlegging. In 1994, President Bill Clinton championed the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, a subsection of which banned the manufacture for civilian use of certain semi-automatic firearms popularly known as assault weapons and large capacity ammunition magazines.

This time the NRA opposed what amounts to a gun safety measure. Regardless, it passed, albeit with a sunset provision that voided the law after 10 years. It passed, survived constitutional challenges in the courts, and, naturally, gun violence once again ebbed. A study that appeared in the January 2019 edition of The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, looking at data from 1981 to 2017, determined that mass-shooting fatalities were 70 percent less likely to occur during the period when the 10-year ban was in effect.

The semi-automatic weapons ban, along with the ban on large ammunition magazines, failed to survive after the 10-year period as a result of Republican opposition, and the country continues to pay the high price. Last month, for instance, Salvador Ramos, 18, entered Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, TX, armed with an AR-15 style rifle in other words, an assault weapon proceeded to gun down 19 fourth graders and two teachers before members of a member of the U.S. Border Patrol tactical unit gained entry and killed the shooter.

For those keeping score at home, it was the third deadliest school shooting in U.S. history, behind the 2007 Virginia Tech University massacre that left 32 dead and 17 wounded and the 2012 annihilation at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut, which resulted in 26 deaths, most of them babies, aged six and seven.

Imagine the horror.

So, given the facts, it would seem logical to revive the ban on semi-automatic weapons, which really are only good for killing fellow human beings, especially with the development of the bump stock, which basically converts them into machine guns, before were once again left aghast by another Robb Elementary School.

Good luck with that.

Lets ask our old pal, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Bowling Green.

I dont think banning whole types of weapons is consistent with the Constitution, Paul said during an interview with WBKO-TV in Bowling Green. I also dont think banning how much ammunition you can put into your gun at a time is something thats consistent with the principles of self-defense or the Constitution.

Nothing uttered by Paul of course, was consistent with the principles of protecting our children from being decapitated as a result of ending up on the wrong end of a fusillade of bullets. Nothing he said was consistent with the principles of protecting one young survivor from having to smear herself in a dead classmates blood to convince the shooter that she, too, was dead. And there was nothing consistent with the principle of saving devastated families from having to provide a DNA sample so their mutilated child could be properly identified.

Nope, its all about some phony baloney constitutional principle that has been rejected both in regard to the Tommy gun and assault weapons by the courts in the past. Maintaining killing machines like the AR-15 so ranchers out west can shoot prairie dogs.

Sorry, folks, but that is some sick, bloody thinking.

Then theres the old reliable, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-SomewhereorotherLewisCounty, the pride of the 4th Congressional District, who refers to some House proposals to address the semi-automatic weapons ban as gun-grabbing legislation, maintaining during a recent floor speech that efforts to address mass shootings are unserious, unconstitutional and, most troubling, dangerous provisions.

Massies sophistry is that everyone should pack because criminals dont follow the law, a dead-end argument that fails to deal with why the nation has laws in the first place because failure to comply carries consequences. And he maintains that school children are sitting ducks, essentially because teachers cant keep guns in their desks, which would, of course, potentially open up a whole, new can of worms.

Does hardening our schools work? Massie asked. Does letting trained teachers and professional staff carry, does it protect children? We know it does because in every single school district, every school that has allowed them to carry there hasnt just been no mass shootings, there hasnt been a single shooting.

There have been any number of schools that havent been converted into a scholastic variation of Eddyville State Penitentiary that, likewise, havent experienced a fatal attack. And he fails to note that armed police were on the scene within four minutes, according to reports, before the annihilation began, and did nothing for more than an hour.

At one point about 150 officers were on the scene and sat idly by. The school had a security force but, inexplicably, a resource officer was not on campus at the time, according to reports. There has been no further explanation.

The unspeakable Uvalde tragedy gives the lie to claims that only good guys with guns defeat bad guys with guns the good guys were on the scene and did nothing. It is the wide distribution of these killing machines more than any other place on Gods earth that are killing off our children one by one and folks like Paul and Massie are so bling they cannot see.

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Bill Straub: Despite tired 'guns-don't-kill' and 'good-guys-with-guns' narratives, guns remain the problem - User-generated content

Obama to deliver warning of democracy’s peril against twin backdrops: Jan. 6 and Ukraine – POLITICO

Its unclear the degree to which Obama will reference Jan. 6 in his speech, or if hell discuss it at all. He is a chronic, last-minute editor, making it impossible to confidently state the contents until near-delivery. But Rhodes noted the goal is to speak to broader themes disinformation, the need for inclusive capitalism, inequality, and the decline in political institutions rather than specific news events. Others involved in the program stressed that the more important context was not Donald Trumps lingering denial of the 2020 election results but the war in Europe.

This is an inflection point. It is not just Ukraines fight but a fight for liberal democracy, said Jonas Parello-Plesner, executive director at the Alliance of Democracies, which is hosting the summit.

Youre speaking to a convinced trans-atlanticist, he added. Yes, this has been a hard moment for America But show me the vice president in China or Russia who would stand up to their leader and say, No, this is not how this should be done. So youre a bit shaken. But the checks and balances are still there in the American system.

Those who have worked alongside Obama say he recognizes that the roots of the problems democracies now face became apparent during his presidency. The backlash to the stock market crash and the rise of the internet opened a brief window of possibility around the globe. But that window closed relatively quickly. Technology hasnt been a uniquely liberating force. Disinformation hasnt been checked and regulated. Voting rights have not been expanded. Populism has been accompanied by nativism.

In his post presidency, Obama has tried, as Rhodes put it, to connect some dots on the issues. Earlier this year, he held an off-the-record session in Chicago with a group of reporters who cover democratic backsliding and disinformation, including Semafors Ben Smith, The Atlantics Anne Applebaum and Charlie Warzel, CNNs Brian Stelter, and tech journalist Kara Swisher. He held another one in California with journalists including CNNs Donie OSullivan, New York Times reporter Kevin Roose and Platformer journalist Casey Newton.

Hes also sought insight from conversations with a number of academics, including Renee DiResta, the technical research manager at Stanford Internet Observatory, Marietje Schaake, the international policy director at Stanford Universitys Cyber Policy Center, Safiya Noble, professor of gender studies and African American studies at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Maria Ressa, the CEO of Rappler and the first Filipino recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.

Asked for some of the reading materials that he has used to stay informed on the topics, an Obama aide sent over a lengthy list of newspaper and magazine articles. Among them, a New York Times column on Trump strategist Steve Bannons savvy in hyper-localizing his political focus; a New Yorker piece on the efforts by activists to create an ad-hoc oversight board at Facebook; and a Wired item on how to stop misinformation from going viral. He also has perused an Atlantic item on the gutting of newsrooms by the hedge fund Alden Global Capital, and a Curbed item about how one authors objectively brilliant job at parallel parking sparked an Internet spat that underscored the mob-ification of online communities.

But, like everyone else, Obamas work on these fronts has been overwhelmed by topics that seem more directly pertinent to everyday life. The coming summit will be the first in-person meeting of this cohort of Obama Foundations Europe program participants since its launch in 2020, when Covid-19 intervened.

Copenhagen will be his opportunity to zoom out again, said one official familiar with the planning, where democracy stands and where young leaders can plug into that solution.

Obamas post-presidency has been a contrast between glitz and grunt work. Hes taken on a producer emeritus role at Netflix, helping to develop and even narrate documentaries. He has launched a podcast with Bruce Springsteen and penned the first half of a massive memoir.

Hes also helped spearhead a major redistricting initiative to put the Democratic Party in a far better spot than after the last round a decade ago. More recently, hes begun aggressively using the spotlight that he commands.

In November, Obama gave a climate-focused speech in Glasgow that stressed the need for younger leaders to engage in politics. In April, he spoke with The Atlantics Jeffrey Goldberg about disinformation. Later that month, he went to Stanford University to talk about how disinformation was puncturing democracy across the globe.

That Stanford address, in particular, has taken on a layer of significance in Obamas orbit.

Some aides emphasize that Obama has a unique capacity to discuss the tech industry its products and shortcomings having been, perhaps, the politician who benefited most prominently from the rise of social media networks that revamped campaigns and the fundraising for them.

I think that gives him credibility to talk about this, said Jason Goldman, a former Twitter board member and Obamas first chief digital officer. He knows these products. He has a long standing relationship with these companies. He is by nature a bit of a nerd. And when he has these conversations, they see a kindred spirit... Hes also able to say Ive had this personal and professional journey of using these tools.

But there is also internal staff pride that his Stanford address was critical of Silicon Valley at the intellectual heart of it. The from-the-belly-of-the-beast staging is something Obama has done repeatedly before. As president, he spoke about the need for financial regulatory reform at Cooper Union and challenged House Republicans on health care reform while at their retreat.

Copenhagen will be a continuation of that. Though the summit was planned before Russias invasion, the war in Ukraine will loom over its proceedings a bloody, theatrical demonstration that democratic fault lines are close to crumbling.

He knows the headwinds these young leaders face in terms of global democratic backsliding, said Laura Lucas Magnuson, executive vice president of global programs at the Obama Foundation. It makes what weve long been doing more urgent than ever and the work of our leaders more urgent than ever. At this moment people really want to hear him continue on that track.

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Obama to deliver warning of democracy's peril against twin backdrops: Jan. 6 and Ukraine - POLITICO

Letter to the editor: Obama can’t save the Democrats – Washington Times

OPINION:

Apparently the architect of the American socialist machine and the Biden collective has crawled out from under his slimy, multimillion-dollar rock on Marthas Vineyard. Former President Barack Obama has a lot to say suddenly, and it just so happens to be coming right before the midterm elections. Laughingly, Mr. Obama has selected misinformation as his focus at precisely the moment when his minions are awash in their own political promises. Lying and deceiving are what Mr. Obama does best, and now he is doing it as well as he ever has. The Stalinists are pulling out all the stops to prevent a red wave, and that is why Mr. Obama has slithered out of his taxpayer-funded crevice. He obviously thinks that his underlings have failed, so he has to do the job himself.

But America is wiser now. It understands that Mr. Obama lies and has rejected him along with his plans and confederates.

JEFFREY H. DISSELL

Gainesville, Florida

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Letter to the editor: Obama can't save the Democrats - Washington Times