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What’s really behind the Iran-Venezuela bromance? – Asia Times

In June, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro arrived in Iran for a two-day visit, marking the first time in five years the leader alighted in the equally isolated Islamic Republic.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who has crafted his foreign policy around anti-US motifs, is investing in elevating relations with Venezuela as Iran misses out on boosting relations with traditional Asian allies and lacks a roadmap for renewing ties with the West.

During the visit, Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year cooperation agreement, the details of which have not been made public.

But for the two countries whose economies have been crushed under years of biting US sanctions, there is potent symbolism in giving new impetus to ties that were mostly stagnant under Raisis predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, whose primary policy priority was to normalize ties with the West.

On the second day of Maduros tour, Iran formally delivered an Aframax tanker known as Yoraco, a vessel designed to carry 800,000 barrels of oil to Venezuela.

The Yoraco was built by the SADRA shipyard as part of a 60 million euro deal, which the Islamic Republic says has been paid in full despite doubts that heavily-sanctioned Venezuela is liquid enough to do so.

In 2006, the two sides floated ambitious plans to boost bilateral trade to US$11 billion per year, notably at a time then-hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had cultivated genial relations with the late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez. Then, the alliance was seemingly the vanguard of a new transregional anti-US bulwark.

President Rouhanis overtures to the US and EU overshadowed ties with Venezuela. Despite grand plans, trade volumes are still negligible. In 2021, bilateral trade amounted to piddling $122 million, constituting a tiny fraction of the South American nations overseas commerce.

But latest indications are emerging that connections are picking up and the two international pariahs, in a joint bid to withstand and rebuff international sanctions, are exploring new realms of collaboration.

Iran-Venezuela relations have been widely described as rhetorical and ideological, but the two anti-US states are translating those commonalities into action to shield each other from the chronic isolation and economic hardship caused by the sanctions.

Amid acute fuel shortages and while Maduro was mired in a domestic fracas after the contested 2019 presidential election, Iran dispatched several shipments of gasoline to Venezuela.

In May 2020, a flotilla of five Iranian oil tankers carried 1.53 million barrels of gasoline from the port of Bandar Abbas to Venezuelas refineries. A sixth ship sailed through the Caribbean Sea and docked in La Guayra, offloading 345,000 barrels.

The second cargo, comprising four tankers carrying 1.12 million barrels of petroleum, was confiscated by the US Department of Justice in August 2020.

Venezuelas second-largest refinery, Cardon, took delivery of 200,000 barrels of Iranian heavy crude earlier in April, and another 400,000 barrels were discharged at Puerto Jos in May.

Venezuelas state oil and gas company PDVSA continues to receive supplies of condensate from its Iranian partners, and the El Palito refinery has resumed a crude distillation unit through elaborate repairs and upgrading completed using equipment acquired from Iran.

From 2001 to 2013, nearly 300 agreements were signed by the governments of Tehran and Caracas on a range of projects including affordable housing, cement plants, car factories, hospitals, department stores, dairy farms and seafood companies. Investment and loans made by Iranian entities in Venezuela are estimated to value between $15 and $20 billion.

As the embattled Raisi administration turns to Maduros Venezuela as an economic lifeline and a political ally, Caracas is embarking on a delicate rapprochement with the United States, which in light of Russias invasion of Ukraine and spiraling global oil prices, could restore Venezuela as a key global oil exporter.

Irans outreach to Venezuela is partly driven by economic interests and partly a desire to gain a foothold in Americas backyard, as the government parlance asserts. That explains the increasing appetite of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for building up ties in Latin America and even entertaining the idea of a military presence in Venezuelas waters.

But according to Richard Hanania, president of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and a research fellow at the University of Texas, Iran and Venezuela ultimately have little to offer each other.

The problem for each of these states is lack of access to global capital. Theyre both financially isolated from the rest of the world, so [theyre] not really in a position to help one another. Some of the things theyre promoting, like direct flights, should have practically no impact on geopolitics or the global economy, he said.

This seems like a political ploy more than anything, [and] it is difficult to see how a trip by Maduro to Iran could have been economically justified. It looks bad for a nation to be isolated from the rest of the world, so its beneficial to show oneself with friends, regardless of how useful those friends are, Hanania told Asia Times.

Other critics concur that the small, beleaguered Latin American nation is incapable of making any meaningful contribution to the economic rehabilitation of Iran while a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and related sanctions relief are still distant hopes.

Venezuela doesnt have much to offer Iran. Its economy is in shambles it may, even, be in worse shape than Irans economy, and its oil and petrochemical facilities are in a state of disrepair. Iran has had some success at selling its oil to China and others in defiance of US sanctions, but Venezuelas oil sales have dropped to nothing, both due to sanctions and the physical deterioration of its facilities and oil fields, said Gregory Brew, a historian of Iran-US relations and Henry A Kissinger postdoctoral fellow at Yale University.

So, the gains for Iran are largely political and strategic, strengthening ties with a state antagonistic toward the US at a time when US-Iran relations are set to worsen, given the declining chances of a return to the JCPOA, he said.

Brew told Asia Times the United States is interested in bringing Venezuela back into the global oil market and efforts are being tentatively pursued with that goal in mind.

While there are no US oil companies with an open interest in pursuing commercial ties with Iran, Chevron maintains a standing interest in Venezuelan oil and continues to lobby for an end to the sanctions regime.

Venezuela arguably has more to gain from a rapprochement with the US than with a new relationship with Tehran and that may mitigate the effectiveness of Tehrans outreach to Caracas, assuming the US effort bears fruit.

Claudia Gago Ostos, a research intern at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a Washington-based non-partisan think tank, argues Iran and Venezuela can benefit each other but not enough to be mutual economic lifelines.

With oil prices rising, certain benefits or a little breathing room might come, but not enough to consider either country as a lifeline against sanctions.

Similarly, Iran has signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with China, and a proposed 20-year deal with Russia exists, although both lack details and concrete plans. More profitable contracts for both countries could come from their alliances with China, Turkey or Russia, all more prominent economic players, she said.

In the first year after the signing of the JCPOA under then-president Hassan Rouhani, the heads of state and governments of Greece, Switzerland, Italy, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Finland, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia traveled to Tehran, exemplifying an unprecedented eagerness by EU member states and wider Europe to revive relations with Iran.

Today, toward the end of President Raisis first year in office, no Western leader has visited Iran, underscoring its enduring isolation.

Irans renewed interest in forging close ties with Venezuela does not mean that Tehrans relations with the West are inevitably going to be tense and fraught for the foreseeable future, but it does show Tehran is hedging its bets on improved ties with the United States, which is not surprising given the extreme hostility of the Trump administration toward Iran and the slow progress of negotiations with the Biden administration on reviving the JCPOA, said David Wight, a visiting assistant professor of history at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro.

As the Biden administration navigates options to bring down the global oil prices, including by engaging Venezuela, experts believe Irans continued bromance with its Latin American partner could be a double-edged sword of risks and benefits as long as relations with the US are not restored.

I think its risky for Iran to court Venezuela like this. It strengthens the argument among American hawks that Iran is an offensively-minded country that threatens America rather than a defensively-oriented country focused on its own region. This viewpoint could be used to topple the regime in Tehran, ventured Max Abrahms, an associate professor of political science at Northeastern University.

On the other hand, Venezuela arguably gives Iran some strategic benefits in terms of projecting power into the Americas, so there are cross-cutting strategic effects of this bilateral relationship, he added.

Follow Kourosh Ziabari on Twitter at @KZiabari

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What's really behind the Iran-Venezuela bromance? - Asia Times

Iron Age pottery recovered from excavators in northern Iran – Tehran Times

TEHRAN Iranian authorities have recovered an Iron Age clay jar from a gang of unauthorized diggers in Mazandaran province, northern Iran.

The suspects were detained and surrendered to the judicial system for further investigation and trial, IRNA quoted a local police commander as saying on Monday.

Preliminary investigations suggest the earthen jar dates 2,500 years, the commander said.

Sandwiched between the towering Alborz mountain range and the Caspian Sea, Mazandaran has a rich yet turbulent history. An early civilization flourished at the beginning of the first millennium BC in Mazandaran (Tabarestan).

Its insecure eastern and southeastern borders were crossed by Mongol invaders in the 13th and 14th centuries. Cossacks attacked the region in 1668 but were repulsed. It was ceded to the Russian Empire by a treaty in 1723, but the Russians were never secure in their occupation. The area was restored to Iran under the Qajar dynasty.

The northern section of the region consists of lowland alongside the Caspian and upland along the northern slopes of the Alborz Mountains. Marshy backlands dominate the coastal plain, and extensive gravel fans fringe the mountains. The climate is permanently subtropical and humid, with very hot summers.

AFM

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Iron Age pottery recovered from excavators in northern Iran - Tehran Times

Reinforced Iran determined to book place in quarters – Tehran Times

TEHRAN Iran started the 2022 Volleyball Nations League (VNL) in a shaky way but the Persians, at the moment, have a chance to book their place in the competitions quarterfinals.

Iran sit eighth in the table and the top seven teams as well as hosts Italy will qualify for the quarterfinals.

Iran have earned four wins in the previous two weeks and suffered four losses.

Behrouz Ataeis men have defeated China, Australia, the U.S. and Canada so far and lost to the Netherlands, Japan, Bulgaria and Brazil.

Iran will start the Week 3 with a match against Poland Tuesday night.

The National Team are scheduled to meet Italy on Thursday and face Slovenia and Serbia in the following day.

Iran bagged disappointing results against Japan, the Netherlands and Bulgaria but defeated powerhouses the U.S. and showed a glittering performance against defending champions Brazil.

Young players namely, Amin Esmaeilnezhad, Amirhossein Esfandiar, Mahdi Jelveh, Amirreza Sarlak, Amirhossein Toukhteh, and Morteza Sharifi have already shown that they are ready to fill vacancy of stars Saeid Marouf, Mohammad Mousavi, Amir Ghafour, Shahram Mahmoudi, and Farhad Ghaemi and.

Booking a place in the competitions quarterfinals will be a big boost for the reinforced team.

Iran need at least two wins out of four to seal a berth in the final eight.

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Reinforced Iran determined to book place in quarters - Tehran Times

Iran Would Hate This: A NATO for the Middle East – 19FortyFive

Last week, King Abdullah II of Jordan said he would support the creation of a military alliance similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The king pointed to the current challenges Middle Eastern countries are facing to emphasize the need for a joint effort.

Calls for an Alliance Like NATO in Middle East?

In addition to outlining how Moscows invasion of Ukraine is impacting the region, King Abdullah discussed Irans destabilizing behavior and the Israel-Palestine crisis to outline the need for a unified front. His remarks follow Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantzs announcement that Israel has joined a U.S.-led joint air defense network dubbed the Middle East Air Defense Alliance (MEAD).

In an interview with CNBC, the Jordanian monarch said he would be one of the first people who would endorse a Middle East version of the largest intergovernmental military alliance that exists today. The king insisted that a period of cooperation must replace the near-constant strife that has plagued the region for many years.

Additionally, Russias invasion of Ukraine has endangered food supplies in the region. Ukraine is one of the worlds largest exporters of wheat and corn. Since Russia has imposed blockades on the countrys ports, the movement of these resources has been stagnant. Earlier this month, Jordan unveiled a ten-year-long development strategy aimed at reviving the countrys struggling economy. Regional conflict has certainly impacted Jordans slow economic growth, making a cooperative truce even more vital to the king.

Referencing the Israel-Palestinian conflict, King Abdullah indicated only time will tell if countries in the region could work toward a vision where prosperity is the name of the game.

Irans Destabilizing Behavior

The king then suggested that the Islamic Republic of Irans role in the region had become problematic. Although Irans regime was not called out directly in his remarks, Abdullah referenced the role Shiite militias continue to play in the Middle East. He expressed that Irans hostile actions along with its ongoing nuclear program are raising fears everywhere in the region and has transferred Iran into a common enemy or adversary to many Arab and non-Arab countries in the Middle East.

Irans proxy warfare has escalated in recent years. Across the region, Iranian-backed groups function to support the regime, destabilizing the countries they operate in. Iran is also in the process of rapidly expanding its ballistic missile arsenal, posing a critical threat to its nearby adversaries.

Due to Irans malign behavior in recent years, U.S. allies in the Middle East have rekindled cooperative efforts. In 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Egypt signed the Al-Ula Declaration. This joint agreement ended a rift that divided the Gulf states for nearly three years. In part, the solidarity pact aims to counter an increasingly dangerous Iran. Additionally, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan formalized normalization ties with Israel through the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords the same year. The MEAD joint air-defense network described by Israels Defense Minister would likely piggyback off the relationships strengthened by the Al-Ula Declaration and the Abraham Accords.

While the formation of a Middle East NATO may not be as imminent as desired by King Abdullah, alliances in the region are shifting. Iran has become increasingly isolated from its neighbors as Israel has been more warmly received.

Maya Carlin is a Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive. She is also an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

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Iran Would Hate This: A NATO for the Middle East - 19FortyFive

New York bill would force gun owners to reveal social media to obtain license – The Guardian US

New York would require people applying for a handgun license to turn over a list of social media accounts so officials could verify their character and conduct under a bill being considered by the state legislature.

The provision was part of a proposed redesign of firearms licensing laws hammered out by lawmakers after the US supreme court struck down rules severely limiting who could get a permit to carry a handgun outside their home.

A bill advanced by Democrats would eliminate the most strict barriers to getting a permit but also impose new requirements for applicants.

Applicants would have to show they have the essential character, temperament and judgement necessary to be entrusted with a weapon and to use it only in a manner that does not endanger oneself and others, according to the bill.

As part of that assessment of good character, the bill says, the applicant has to turn over a list of any social media accounts they have had in the past three years to confirm the information regarding the applicants character and conduct.

Applicants would also have to provide four character references, take 16 hours of firearms safety training plus two hours of practice at a range, undergo periodic background checks and turn over the contact information of their spouse, domestic partner or any other adults living in their household.

The bill does not specify whether applicants would be required to provide licensing officers with access to private social media accounts not visible to the general public.

The idea that the state would let licensing officials review an applicants speech as a condition of getting a license infuriated gun rights advocates.

This is the kind of bill that the Gestapo would be proud of. This is the kind of bill youd see in communist China, said Aaron Dorr, executive director of the New York State Firearms Association. This will never survive a court challenge. This is the kind of concept that would pass in those countries.

The Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, released the text of the legislation early on Friday as the legislature continued a special session.

The supreme court struck down a previous rule requiring people to demonstrate an unusual threat to their safety to get a license to carry a handgun outside their homes.

That restriction generally limited the licenses to people who had worked in law enforcement or had another special need that went beyond routine public safety concerns.

Under the new system, the state would not authorize permits for people with criminal convictions within five years for driving while intoxicated, menacing or third-degree assault. People also wouldnt be allowed to carry firearms at a long list of sensitive places, including Times Square in New York City.

That list also includes schools, universities, government buildings, places where people have gathered for public protests, healthcare facilities, places of worship, libraries, public playgrounds and parks, daycare centers, summer camps, addiction and mental health centers, shelters, public transit, bars, theaters, stadiums, museums, polling places and casinos.

New York would also bar people from bringing guns into any business or workplace unless the owners put up signage saying guns were welcome. People who bring guns into places without such a sign could be prosecuted on felony charges.

In many other states businesses that want to keep guns out are required to post signs indicating weapons are not allowed.

Gun advocates said the bill infringes on rights upheld by the supreme court.

Now were going to let the pizzeria owner decide whether or not I can express my constitutional right, said Andrew Lanza, a state senator and Staten Island Republican.

This is a disgrace. See you in the courts. You all know this is unconstitutional. You all know this is just a ruse. Another attempt to say to the people of the state of New York: We dont trust you.

The bill would also fix a recently passed law that barred sales of some types of bullet-resistant vests to the general public but inadvertently left out many types of body armor, including the type worn by a gunman who killed 10 Black people in a racist attack on a Buffalo supermarket.

Democrats with supermajorities in both legislative chambers expected to pass the bill later on Friday. The bill would then get sent to Hochuls desk for her expected signature, then take effect on 1 September.

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New York bill would force gun owners to reveal social media to obtain license - The Guardian US