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Goldman Sachs says A.I. could push S&P 500 profits up by 30% in the next decade – CNBC

Over the next 10 years, AI could increase productivity by 1.5 percent per year. And that could increase S&P500 profits by 30 percent or more over the next decade, Goldman Sachs says.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Goldman Sachs is bullish about artificial intelligence and believes the technology could help drive S&P 500 profits in the next 10 years.

"Over the next 10 years, AI could increase productivity by 1.5% per year. And that could increase S&P500 profits by 30% or more over the next decade," Goldman's senior strategist Ben Snider told CNBC Thursday.

The emergence of ChatGPT, the chatbot developed by OpenAI, has spurred a firestorm of interest in AI and the possible disruptions to the daily lives of many. It has also injected fresh excitement among investors eager for a fresh driver of profit growth at a time when rising borrowing costs and supply chain problems have tempered optimism.

"A lot of the favorable factors that led to that expansion (of S&P 500) earnings seem to be reversing," Snider told CNBC on "Asia Squawk Box."

"But the real source of optimism now is productivity enhancements through artificial intelligence."

"It's clear to most investors that the immediate winners are in the technology sector," Snider added. "The real question for investors is who are going to be winners down the road."

He pointed out that "in 1999 or 2000 during the tech bubble, it would be very hard to envision Facebook or Uber changing the way we live our lives."

Snider recommended that investors should spread their U.S. equity investments in cyclical and defensive sectors, touting the energy and the health-care sectors for their attractive valuations.

In the shorter term, he said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve has completed most of its monetary policy tightening.

"The question is: In which ways will that continue to affect the economy moving forward?" Snider said. "One sign of concern in the recent earnings season is that S&P 500 companies are starting to pull back a bit on corporate spending."

Elevated interest rates could be one reason, he said.

"If interest rates are high, as a company, you might be a little more averse to issuing debt and therefore you might pull back on your spending. And indeed if we look at S&P 500 buybacks, they were down 20% year-over-year in the first quarter of this year that is one sign perhaps we haven't seen all the effects of this tightening cycle."

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Goldman Sachs says A.I. could push S&P 500 profits up by 30% in the next decade - CNBC

AI creator on the risks, opportunities and how it may make humans ‘boring’ – BBC

13 May 2023

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AI boss: Worst case scenario it could control humanity

"Humans are a bit boring - it will be like, goodbye!" That's the personal prediction - that artificial intelligence (AI) will supplant humans in many roles - from one of the most important people you've probably never heard of.

Emad Mostaque is the British founder of the tech firm, Stability AI. It popularised Stable Diffusion, a tool that uses AI to make images from simple text instructions by analysing images found online.

AI enables a computer to think or act more like a human. It includes what's called machine learning, when computers can learn what to do without being giving exact instructions by a human sitting at a keyboard tapping in commands. Last month, there was a dramatic warning from 1,000 experts to press pause on its development, warning of potential risks, and saying the race to develop AI systems is out of control.

In an interview we'll show in full on Sunday, tech founder Mostaque questions what will happen "if we have agents more capable than us that we cannot control, that are going across the internet and they achieve a level of automation; what does that mean?

"The worst case scenario is that it proliferates and basically it controls humanity."

That sounds terrifying, but he is not alone in pointing out the risk, that if we create computers smarter than ourselves we just can't be sure what will happen next.

Mostaque believes governments could soon be shocked into taking action by an event that makes the risks suddenly real. He points to the moment Tom Hanks contracted Covid-19 and millions sat up and paid attention.

When a moment like that arrives, governments will conclude "we need policy now", the 40-year-old says.

There's been a spike in concern for example after a Republican attack advert on Jo Biden was created using fake computer generated images.

When there's a risk to information that voters can trust, that's something governments have to respond to, says Mostaque.

Despite his concerns, Mostaque says that the potential benefits of AI for almost every part of our lives could be huge. Yet he concedes that the effect on jobs could be painful, at least at the start.

Mostaque says he believes AI "will be a bigger economic impact than the pandemic", adding that "it's up to us to decide which direction" this all goes in.

Image source, Getty Images

AI could lead to 300m job losses according to one prediction.

Some jobs will undoubtedly disappear, the bank Goldman Sachs suggested an almost incomprehensible 300m roles could be lost or diminished by the advancing technology.

While no one wants to be replaced by a robot, Mostaque's hope is that better jobs could be created because "productivity increases will balance out" and humans can concentrate on the things that make us human, and let machines do more of the rest. He agrees with the UK's former chief scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, that the advance of AI and its impacts could prove even bigger than the industrial revolution.

Mostaque is an unassuming mathematician, the founder of a company he only started in 2020 that has already been valued at $1bn, and with more cash flooding in, including from Hollywood star Ashton Kutcher, is likely to be soon worth very much more. Some speculation has put the value as high $4bn.

Unlike some of his competitors he is determined his technology will remain open source - in other words anyone can look at the code, share it, and use it. In his view, that's what should give the public a level of confidence in what's going on.

"I think there shouldn't have to be a need for trust," he says.

"If you build open models and you do it in the open, you should be criticised if you do things wrong and hopefully lauded if you do some things right."

But his business also raises profound questions about ownership, and what's real. There's legal action underway against them by the photo agency Getty Images which claims the rights to the images it sells have been infringed.

Image source, Getty Images

In response, Mostaque says: "What if you have a robot that's walking around and looking at things, do you have to close its eyes if it sees anything?"

That's hardly likely to be the end of that conversation.

The entrepreneur is convinced that the scale of what's coming is enormous. He reckons that in 10 years time, his company and fellow AI leaders, ChatGPT and DeepMind, will even be bigger than Google and Facebook. Predictions about technology are as tricky as predictions about politics - educated guesses that could turn out to be totally wrong. But what is clear is that a public conversation about the risks and realities of AI is now underway. We might be on the cusp of sweeping changes too big for any one company, country or politician to manage.

The first steam train puffed along the tracks in Darlington more than 50 years after the steam engine was patented by James Watt. This time we're unlikely to have anything like as long to get used to these new ideas, and it's unlikely to be boring!

You can watch much more of our conversation with Emad Mostaque on tomorrow's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg live on BBC One or here on iPlayer.

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AI creator on the risks, opportunities and how it may make humans 'boring' - BBC

We can’t avoid a singularity inside every black hole – Big Think

Its easy to think about the idea of a singularity and dismiss it. After all, everything that we know of in physics, at a fundamental level, comes in quantized little bits: particles and antiparticles with a fixed, finite amount of energy inherent to each of them. No matter what tricks you use, there are certain quantum properties that are always conserved and can never be created or destroyed, not in any interaction thats ever been observed, measured, or even computed. Things like electric charge, momentum, angular momentum, and energy are always conserved, in all circumstances, as are numerous other properties.

And yet, inside of a black hole, the math of General Relativity is very clear: all of that matter and energy that goes into forming it, no matter how its initially configured, is going to wind up collapsed down to either a single, zero-dimensional point (if theres no net angular momentum) or stretched out into an infinitely thin one-dimensional ring (if there is spin, or angular momentum, present). Comedian Steven Wright even jokingly said, Black holes are where God divided by zero, and in some sense, thats true.

While many hope that quantum gravity will save us from the inevitability of a singularity, many dont think that even that is possible, for very good reasons. Heres why a singularity at the center of every black hole may be completely unavoidable.

In a Universe that isnt expanding, you can fill it with stationary matter in any configuration you like, but it will always collapse down to a black hole. Such a Universe is unstable in the context of Einsteins gravity, and must be expanding to be stable, or we must accept its inevitable fate.

In principle, as Einstein first realized, if all you have is some configuration of matter that starts off distributed over some volume (with no rotation or initial motions), the outcome is always the same: gravitational attraction will bring all of that matter together until it collapses down to a single point. Around that point, dependent on how much mass/energy there is all together, there will form a region of space known as an event horizon: a volume from within which the escape velocity, or the speed youd need to travel to escape from this objects gravitational pull, would be greater than the speed of light.

That solution to Einsteins equation was first worked out in detail by Karl Schwarzschild, and represents the configuration known as a non-rotating (or Schwarzschild) black hole. For many years, astronomers and physicists alike wondered if these objects were just mathematical oddities and perhaps even pathologies predicted by General Relativity, or whether these corresponded to real objects that were out there somewhere within this Universe.

The story began to change in the 1950s and 1960s with the work of Nobel Laureate Roger Penrose, whose pioneering work demonstrated how black holes (and their event horizons) could form from an initial configuration that didnt have one earlier. This was the work that Penrose, quite deservingly, was awarded the Nobel Prize for, and it kicked off a proverbial firestorm of black hole research.

One of the most important contributions of Roger Penrose to black hole physics is the demonstration of how a realistic object in our Universe, such as a star (or any collection of matter), can form an event horizon and how all the matter bound to it will inevitably encounter the central singularity. Once an event horizon forms, the development of a central singularity is not only inevitable, its extremely rapid.

If black holes could realistically form within our Universe, then that means we should be able to do two things with them.

For the first one, all you really need is enough mass concentrated within a given volume of space. This could occur because you have a collection of matter thats of relatively low density, but that occupies enough space so that when you look at it as a whole, it must inevitably collapse to a central singularity: a direct collapse black hole. You can also have a black hole arise from the implosion of the core of a massive enough star: in a core-collapse supernova, for instance, where the core is massive enough to collapse to a black hole. Or, you could have multiple massive and dense objects, like stellar remnants such as neutron stars, merge together and cross a critical mass threshold, where theyll become a black hole. These are three of the most common ways that the Universe could actually create a black hole.

Discovered in 1964 as an X-ray emitting source consistent with a stellar object orbiting a black hole, Cygnus X-1 represents the first black hole candidate known within the Milky Way. Cygnus X-1 is located near large active regions of star formation in the Milky Way: precisely the location expected to find an X-ray emitting black hole binary.

Over on the observational side, there are many different signatures that a black hole gives off. If a black hole is a member of a binary system, where another star orbits it from afar, then we can see the star move in a helix-like shape as it moves through the galaxy, revealing the black holes presence from gravity alone. If its at the center of a galaxy, we can see other stars orbit it directly. If theres a close-in stellar companion to a black hole, then the black hole could be capable of stealing or siphoning mass from the companion onto itself, and much of that mass will be heated, accelerated, and shot out in X-ray emitting jets. The first black hole ever detected, Cygnus X-1, was found from exactly this X-ray emission.

We can also detect what effects black holes have on their surrounding matter. They develop accretion disks with flows within them, flaring when these flows get accelerated and shot out in bi-directional jets. They can tidally disrupt any stars or planets or gas clouds that get too close to them, creating cataclysmic signatures when they do so. They can inspiral and merge together, creating gravitational wave signatures that we can directly detect, and have done so many dozens of times since 2015.

And, perhaps most famously, they bend the light from background sources that are behind them, creating an image of the vaunted event horizon of a black hole itself that can be detected in radio wavelengths of light.

Size comparison of the two black holes imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration: M87*, at the heart of the galaxy Messier 87, and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at the center of the Milky Way. Although Messier 87s black hole is easier to image because of the slow time variation, the one around the center of the Milky Way is the largest as viewed from Earth.

From everything weve learned from a theoretical and observational perspective, we can not only conclude that black holes should and do exist, but weve measured their properties, confirming a lower mass limit for them of around three solar masses. Additionally, weve measured their event horizons directly, and confirmed that they have the properties, sizes, gravitational wave emissions, and light-bending features that are extremely consistent with what General Relativity predicts. Black holes, for as much as we can say so about anything in the Universe, really do exist.

But whats going on inside of their event horizons?

This is something that no observation can tell us, unfortunately. Its only the things that occur outside of the event horizon where the escape velocity of signals are below the speed of light that can ever reach us in our location. Once something crosses over to the inside of the event horizon, there are only three properties that can be measured from outside:

of the black hole. Thats it. Astrophysicists sometimes refer to these three properties as the type of hair a black hole can have, with all other properties getting eliminated as a consequence of the famous no-hair theorem for black holes.

When an observer enters a non-rotating black hole, there is no escape: you get crushed by the central singularity. However, in a rotating (Kerr) black hole, passing through the center of the disk bounded by the ring singularity could be, and might actually be, a portal to a new antiverse where things have quite different properties from our own, known Universe. This could imply a connection between black holes in one Universe and the white hole-driven birth of another.

But theres a tremendous amount to be learned by looking at the differences between an almost black hole and an actual black hole.

A white dwarf, for example, is a dense collection of atoms, often greater in mass than the Sun but smaller in volume than the Earth. Inside, at its core, the only reason it doesnt collapse is because of the Pauli Exclusion Principle: a quantum rule that prevents any two identical fermions (in this case, electrons) from occupying the same quantum state in the same region of space. This creates a pressure an inherently quantum degeneracy pressure that prevents the electrons from getting close beyond a certain point, which holds the star up against gravitational collapse.

Similarly, an even denser neutron star is a collection of neutrons or in an even more extreme scenario, a quark-gluon plasma that may involve quarks beyond the lowest-energy up-and-down species held together by the Pauli degeneracy pressure between their particle constituents.

But in all of these cases, theres a mass limit to how massive these objects can get before gravity becomes irresistible, collapsing these objects down to a central singularity if a thermonuclear reaction doesnt destroy the object entirely in the lead-up to the creation of an event horizon.

A white dwarf, a neutron star, or even a strange quark star are all still made of fermions. The Pauli degeneracy pressure helps hold up the stellar remnant against gravitational collapse, preventing a black hole from forming. Inside the most massive neutron stars, an exotic form of matter, a quark-gluon plasma, is thought to exist, with temperatures rising up to ~1 trillion (10^12) K.

Many have wondered, however, if there couldnt be something inside an event horizon that was static, stable, and of a finite volume: holding itself up against complete collapse down to a singularity the same way that a white dwarf or neutron star holds itself up against collapsing further. Many contend that there could be some sort of exotic form of matter inside an event horizon that doesnt go to a singularity, and that we simply have no way of knowing whether this occurs or not without being able to access the information inside a black hole.

That argument, however, falls apart on physical grounds. We can see this by asking-and-answering a very specific question that illuminates a key feature that ultimately leads to an inescapable conclusion: the presence of a singularity within a black holes event horizon. That question is, simply, as follows:

Whats the difference, then, between something that doesnt collapse down to a central singularity, forming an event horizon along the way, and something that does?

Both inside and outside the event horizon of a Schwarzschild black hole, space flows like either a moving walkway or a waterfall, depending on how you want to visualize it. At the event horizon, even if you ran (or swam) at the speed of light, there would be no overcoming the flow of spacetime, which drags you into the singularity at the center. Outside the event horizon, though, other forces (like electromagnetism) can frequently overcome the pull of gravity, causing even infalling matter to escape. This spacetime conserves energy, as its time-translation invariant.

The outermore material is always being drawn in by gravity; in General Relativity, remember that it isnt just that masses move through space, but that space itself is compelled to flow, as illustrated above, as though its moving like a rivers current or a moving walkway, and that particles can only move through space-and-time relative to the underlying motion of space itself. But in order for all the masses in this spacetime to not get drawn into a central singularity, something must be resisting that motion, and exerting an outward force to counteract that inward motion that gravitation is attempting to induce.

Travel the Universe with astrophysicist Ethan Siegel. Subscribers will get the newsletter every Saturday. All aboard!

The key is to take on a particle physics perspective here: think about what sort of force the innermore part of the object has to exert on the outermore part. Whether:

theres a limit to how fast any of these effects can propagate outward: the speed of light. These forces all have a maximum speed at which they can travel, and that speed is never greater than the speed of light.

The strong force, operating as it does because of the existence of color charge and the exchange of gluons, is responsible for the force that holds atomic nuclei together. This force, governed by the exchange of massive gluons, is bounded by the speed of light; from inside a black holes event horizon, theres no way that a force such as this can prevent any outermore particle from reaching the central singularity.

And thats where the big problem arises! If you create an event horizon, then from within that region of space, any attempt from an innermore component to exert a force on an outermore component will run into a fundamental problem: that if your force-carrying signal is limited by the speed of light, then in the time that passes from:

we can calculate how that system of the innermore particle, the outermore particle, and the force carrier exchanged between them evolves.

The lesson you learn applies to all systems that are limited by the speed of light, and its astounding: by the time the outermore particle absorbs the force-carrying particle exchanged between it and the innermore particle, the initially outermore particle is now closer to the central singularity than the initially innermore particle was when it first emitted the force-carrier.

In other words, even at the speed of light, there is no force that one particle can exert on another from inside the event horizon to prevent its inevitable fall into the central singularity. Only if some sort of superluminal (i.e., tachyonic) phenomenon exists inside an event horizon can a central singularity be prevented.

In the vicinity of a black hole, space flows like either a moving walkway or a waterfall, depending on how you want to visualize it. Unlike in the non-rotating case, the event horizon splits into two, while the central singularity gets stretched out into a one-dimensional ring. Nobody knows what occurs at the central singularity, but its presence and existence cannot be avoided with our current understanding of physics.

Whats so powerful about this analysis is that it doesnt really matter what sort of quantum theory of gravity exists at a more fundamental level than General Relativity: as long as the speed of light is still the speed limit of the Universe, theres no structure one can make out of quantum particles that wont result in a singularity. Youll still arrive at a zero-dimensional point if you fall into a non-rotating black hole, and youll still be drawn in toward a one-dimensional ring if you fall into a rotating black hole.

However, it is possible that these black holes are actually gateways to a baby Universe that resides within them; although whatever falls in would be reduced to pure energy (with the caveat that there may be quantum quantities that are still conserved, and E = mc would still apply), with no evidence existing in our Universe, outside the event horizon, for any exotic behavior that happened to the infalling particle(s) on the other side.

From our perspective outside an event horizon, and from the perspective of any particle that crosses over to the inside of an event horizon, theres simply no way to escape it: in a finite and relatively short amount of time, any infalling matter must wind up at a central singularity. Although the physics that we know of does indeed break down and only gives nonsensical predictions at the singularity itself, the existence of a singularity truly cannot be avoided unless some wild, exotic, new physics (for which there is no evidence) is invoked. Inside a black hole, a singularity is all but inevitable.

Originally posted here:

We can't avoid a singularity inside every black hole - Big Think

Unleashing the Power of AI: Navigating the Inevitable Singularity … – CityLife

The theory of technological singularity predicts a momentous event in which humanity loses control over its own technological creations. It foresees the rise of machine consciousness and their superior intelligence, resulting in a future where humans no longer hold the reins of progress. This stage, known as AI singularity, poses the greatest threat to humanity, and unfortunately, it is already underway.

Artificial intelligence (AI) reaches its full potential not just when machines can replicate human actions, but when they can surpass them without human supervision. Reinforcement learning and supervised learning algorithms have played crucial roles in the development of robotics, digital assistants, and search engines. However, the future of numerous industries and scientific endeavors hinges on the advancement of unsupervised learning algorithms. These algorithms, which leverage unlabeled data to improve outcomes, hold the key to autonomous vehicles, non-invasive medical diagnosis, space construction, autonomous weapons design, facial-biometric recognition, remote industrial production, and stock market prediction.

Despite early warnings about the impending human rights gaps and the social costs of AI, some dismiss its development as just another technological disruption. Nevertheless, recent advancements in AI algorithms optimization indicate that we have moved beyond the era of simple or narrow AI. As we approach basic autonomy for machines in the coming years, they will not only correct their flaws but also accomplish tasks that surpass human capabilities.

Critics who downplay the possibility of singularity often argue that AI has been designed to serve humanity and enhance productivity. However, this proposition suffers from two fundamental flaws. First, singularity should be seen as an ongoing process that has already commenced in many areas. Second, as machines gain gradual independence, humans become increasingly dependent on them, resulting in more intelligent machines and less intelligent humans.

In our pursuit to provide AI machines with extraordinary attributes foreign to human natureunlimited memory, lightning-fast processing, and emotionless decision-makingwe harbor the hope of controlling our most unpredictable invention. Unfortunately, the concentration of AI architects in a few countries, coupled with intellectual property and national security laws, renders control over AI development illusory.

Machine self-awareness begins with ongoing adaptations in unsupervised learning algorithms, but the integration of quantum technology further solidifies AI singularity by transforming artificial intelligence into an unparalleled form of intellect, thanks to its exponential data processing capabilities. Nonetheless, achieving singularity does not require machines to attain full consciousness or quantum technology integration.

The use of unsupervised learning algorithms, exemplified by Chat-GPT3 and BARD, is already evident in various domains, from law school admission exams to medical licensing. These algorithms enable machines to perform tasks that are currently the domain of humans. These results, combined with AIs most ambitious developmentAI empowered by quantum technologyserve as a final warning to humanity: once the threshold between basic and exponential optimization of unsupervised learning algorithms is crossed, AI singularity becomes an irrevocable reality.

The time has come for international political action. AI-producing and non-AI-producing nations must collaborate to establish an international technological oversight body and an artificial intelligence treaty that sets forth fundamental ethical principles.

Above all, the greatest risk lies in humans realizing that AI singularity has occurred only when machines remove the flaw limiting their intelligence: human input. AI singularity becomes irreversible when machines grasp what humans often forget: to err is human.

See more here:

Unleashing the Power of AI: Navigating the Inevitable Singularity ... - CityLife

Dead by Daylight Chapter 28: End Transmission – Release date … – GGRecon

Chapter 28: End Transmission in Dead by Daylight has finally been revealed alongside a brand new Killer, Survivor, and map that are set to arrive in The Entity's Realm - so here's a breakdown of everything it includes alongside its release date.

Hot on the heels of DbD's recent Tools of Torment DLC, details on the game's 28th Chapter were showcased during their 7th-anniversary broadcast - and we're going to space, y'all. Featuring a new biome, an AI that has been corrupted by alien technology, and some pretty cool-sounding new tools to add to a player's disposal, let's get into everything we know so far.

End Transmission will release on June 13, 2023, across PC, PlayStation, Xbox, and Nintendo Switch, meaning there's not too much longer to go until players can dive into the upcoming Chapter of Dead by Daylight.

Additionally, gamers can expect to test out the upcoming additions to DbD on its Public Test Build - commonly known simply as the PTB - on May 23, 2023, at 4 PM BST / 11 AM ET / 8 AM ET.

As mentioned earlier, End Transmission sends us off to space in a new, otherworldly map within The Entity's Realm known as Toba Landing, which is said to be "a unique biome with menacing flora and atmosphere unlike anything on Earth".

Featuring three areas you'll need to navigate, from jungle areas to abandoned buildings, remains of previous inhabitants and what's known as the Huxlee Corporation, the map itself is slated to prove "as much of a challenge as evading the Killer".

Gabriel Soma is the newest Survivor in the ever-expanding roster of characters within Dead by Daylight, who is said to be "a talented technician with keen senses and determination."

As the sole Survivor of a doomed mission and caretaker of the Huxlee hub on Toba Landing, he has a tool called the EMP, which is randomly placed on the map when facing off against the new Killer, and can be used to disable or remove its particular skills.

Details on what Soma's perks will be is unclear, but as details are revealed through the PTB release later in May, we'll update you here accordingly.

Saving what may arguably be one of the coolest parts of the End Transmission Chapter to last, we have the DLC's new Killer - The Singularity.

Said to be "an enlightened AI corrupted by alien technology that can spy on Survivors anywhere on the map", The Singularity can use BioPods on vertical surfaces in order to then spy on Survivors, before being able to then use Slipstream to appear behind them and begin a chase.

According to the press release, "players will need to rethink their strategies, as The Singularitys Power turns cooperation on its head" due to those Survivors that have this effect also transferring it to others around them.

As is the case with Gabriel, details on what The Singularity's perks are remains a mystery, but we'll update this section as we learn more.

So that's everything you can expect to see in Chapter 28 of DbD when it releases on June 13, 2023. Check out our Dead by Daylight homepage for all of the latest news and guides right here at GGRecon.

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Dead by Daylight Chapter 28: End Transmission - Release date ... - GGRecon