Why Democrats aren’t winning elections in Arkansas (and how the tide could turn) – Arkansas Times
Ten years ago, if youd have suggested that Id someday write a piece for the Arkansas Times, Id have enjoyed a good laugh at your expense. The laugh, in fact, is on me. For those of you reading this who are blissfully unaware, theres a history of enmity. Ive referred to this publication as the litter box liner for more than a decade and have been oft described by its writers as a troglodyte who despises the poor, wants Arkansans to die and a litany of other backhanded compliments. Butthe publisher asked if Id like to share my point of view and after thinking it over, I agreed. Now that the obligatories have been dispensed with, heres some background perspective.
I became active in Arkansas politics in 1999 after moving back home following a few years living in other states. Democrats held legislative supermajorities, four of the six in our federal delegation were Democrats, every constitutional officer was a Democrat and 100% of my local officials in Polk County were Democrats. As a lifelong Republican, I didnt see Democrats being in charge of everything as a positive. I joined my local GOP committee and went to work with the goal of electing Republicans. Brevity prohibits most of the details but over the next decade we elected a few Republicans to local office and even elected Jay Dickey as 4th District Congressman. Despite many telling me Theres no way you can win running as a Republican, in 2010 I became the first member of Arkansas GOP elected to represent my region in the legislature. The events of 2010-2015 led to my becoming politically homeless, the details of which I spoke about at a recent Arkansas Times luncheon.
Today, elected offices in the Natural State are almost uniformly Republican territory. The party domination is even more pronounced than the Democrat domination was in 1999. Republicans hold legislative supermajorities, all six federal positions and every statewide elected office. Most counties are as Republican today as they were Democratic barely a decade ago. This leads one to ask the question: why arent Democrats winning most elections in Arkansas? Both parties have their own partisan versions of the reasons. Itll come as no surprise that my politically homeless independent point of view aligns with neither partys position.
Arkansans are fiercely independent people. For decades we were known for having the highest percentage of split-ticket voting in the nation, often supporting GOP candidates nationally while voting straight Democratic tickets closer to home. Left-of-center wisdom attributes the radical shift in our political patterns to the election of a Black President in 2008 and while theres correlation, the shift in other southern states predates the Obama election significantly. There IS a small element of racism that drove the shift, but its minor compared to the larger shift on social issues that occurred almost simultaneously within the Democratic Party of Arkansas.
Mike Beebes politics illustrate this well. Modern Arkansas Democratic politics are perhaps best described as pre-Beebe and post-Beebe. He won overwhelmingly in 2006 and was solidly re-elected in 2010, the same year Tea Party Republicans came within a handful of seats of taking control of both chambers of the legislature. The biggest difference between Gov. Beebe and most current Arkansas Democrats is how he handled issues like abortion, guns, gay marriage, etc. If you heard Mike Beebe talk about a social issue at all, it was usually done quietly and in private. He avoided those issues, likely because he knew they wouldnt work in his favor, choosing to focus on fiscal and operational issues. This was in stark contrast to his predecessor Mike Huckabee, who raised taxes drastically and nearly tripled Clintons budget but was fiercely socially conservative.
Democrats won elections in Arkansas longer than in most other southern states mostly by remaining silent on social issues and tolerating dissenting views on them within their ranks. Back when 3G was cutting edge technology, I occasionally referred to God, Guns and Gays as the 3Gs of Arkansas politics. Arkansas voters tend to have visceral reactions to each of the three. Once they perceived, fairly or unfairly, that the national Democratic Party was becoming unfriendly to their religious beliefs, their hunting culture and was embracing gay-friendly policies such as licensing same sex marriage, many felt personally attacked. President Obama deeply embedded this perception with his comment about rural Americans bitterly clinging to their religion, guns and xenophobia. More than any other single thing, that comment was the disjunction that separated many Arkansas voters from the party theyd long supported. Ive heard it referenced in many a small town caf, feed store or sporting event conversation. Many Arkansans will vote for candidates with whom they totally disagree on the economy, healthcare, government programs, etc. because of the 3Gs. When forced to prioritize, they do, and thats not working out in favor of Democratic candidates most of the time.
How do Democrats start winning again in Arkansas? Although its mostly too late for 2024, Republican overreach and corruption have left the door wide open for 2026.Ill share my opinion on that in my next column.
Read the original here:
Why Democrats aren't winning elections in Arkansas (and how the tide could turn) - Arkansas Times