Bush, Obama, Trump, or Biden: Here’s How Much Money You Would Have if You Had Invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 … – The Motley Fool
Learn from history.
War. Natural disasters. Congressional infighting. Any of these can wreck the public perception of a presidential administration. Presidents are also often judged -- fairly or not -- by how the stock market performs during their time in office.
By examining each presidency by the numbers, we'll see what lessons investors can learn, and how it can help them become smarter, happier, and richer.
Image source: Getty Images.
George W. Bush was sworn into office at noon on Saturday, Jan. 20, 2001 -- the day and time set by the Constitution -- with the S&P 500 having slipped about 12% from its all-time high as the dot-com bubble began to burst. Over the next several months, financial conditions continued to deteriorate, spurred on by a series of financial scandals, the start of a formal recession, and the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All told, the S&P 500 would bottom out in late 2002, down nearly 50%.
The gray bars in the charts in this article indicate U.S. recessions.
^SPX data by YCharts
Despite this rocky period, the economy bounced back and the market reclaimed all its losses and more. By the start of 2007, the S&P 500 had increased more than 25% since the start of Bush's presidency.
Yet, storm clouds were gathering. The stock market peaked in mid-2007 and investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed the following year, leading to the Great Recession.
Bush left office near the bottom of the downturn. Overall, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 dropped almost 31% during his term. So buying on Day 1 of his administration and selling on the last day, would not have turned out to be a money-making move. However, investors who bought shares of the S&P 500 on his first day as president and held until today would have been handsomely rewarded.
A $10,000 investment would now be worth about $60,000, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%.
Barack Obama was sworn in as the 44th president on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2009. The stock market was in the middle of a prolonged bear market, and the country was mired in a deep recession due to the financial crisis of 2008.
^SPX data by YCharts
However, those initial disadvantages would become positives over the long run. The 2007-2009 bear market bottomed in March 2009, and a long bull market began, which would last for more than a decade.
Sure, there were stock market corrections along the way, brought on by numerous events, including several Greek debt crises, the U.S. debt ceiling crisis of 2011, and the Brexit referendum vote.
Nevertheless, by the end of Obama's term in 2017, the S&P 500 had generated a total return of 235%, equating to an annualized rate of 16%. A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 on Day 1 of his presidency would have been worth $33,500 on the final day, and it would now be worth $89,000.
Indeed, among presidents dating back to 1900, Obama's stock market record ranks near the top of the list. Only Calvin Coolidge (1923-1929) and Bill Clinton (1993-2001) can claim a larger percentage gain in the stock market during their terms.
Donald Trump was sworn in as president on Friday, Jan. 20, 2017. During his time in office, the stock market experienced enormous highs and lows. However, the timing of the downturns might surprise some investors.
^SPX data by YCharts
For example, during Trump's presidency, the stock market experienced three fantastic years and one bad year -- assuming you start the years on Jan. 20 (to line up with Inauguration Day). The up years were 2017, 2019, and, surprisingly, 2020 -- despite the steep sell-off at the start of the COVID pandemic. It was 2018 -- when the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy -- that was the worst year during the Trump presidency. That 12-month period year saw the S&P 500 decline by 3.1%.
All told, the stock market returned 83.3% over Trump's four years, working out to a 16.4% CAGR -- the highest annualized rate out of the four most recent presidents.
President Joe Biden assumed office on Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021. During his roughly three and a half years in office, the stock market has performed something like a three-act play. It went up; it went down; then it recovered.
^SPX data by YCharts
When you tally it all up, you find that the result is above average -- an annualized return of 12% and an overall return of 45%. A $10,000 investment made on Day 1 of his presidency would now be worth $14,500.
Yet, the big economic story of the Biden administration is something you won't see in the stock market returns: inflation. Unlike the other administrations mentioned above, the Biden presidency has seen persistently high inflation. In response, the Federal Reserve has quickly raised interest rates in a bid to stabilize prices.
In other words, the stock market is up under the Biden administration. But, for many investors, it may not feel that way, and inflation, combined with higher interest rates, are the biggest reasons why.
When you zoom out to the big picture, one thing becomes clear: It's never a bad time to invest -- no matter who the president may be.
*Term not complete.
As the table above shows (top results are in bold), Day 1 investors in the S&P 500 would have made money in three of the last four administrations if they'd sold on the last day of the administration. In all cases, buying on Day 1 and continuing to hold, would have resulted in positive returns.
Clearly, there's a lesson: The longer you stay invested in the stock market, the better your chances of success. And that's a lesson investors can take to the bank -- no matter who is in the White House.
- From Barack Obama to Emmanuel Macron, global leaders hit by AI and deepfakes - The Indian Express - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Heres what Trump and Obama laughed and talked about at Jimmy Carters funeral, new book reveals - New York Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama: I learned this great parenting tip from my mom and dadthey did a 'beautiful job' modeling it - CNBC - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump Asked Obama This Surprising Question at Jimmy Carter's Funeral, New Book Claims - People.com - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama frets young women are not allowed the unearned confidence young men have - Fox News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Barack Obama To Speak At The O2 London, 3Arena Dublin - Pollstar News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 'Telling the American story' Obama, Pence to speak at the Global Summit in Erie | Opinion - Erie Times-News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Malia Obama Has the Bag Collection of My Dreams - Teen Vogue - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- This is what President Trump asked Obama at Jimmy Carters funeral, new book claims - PennLive.com - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- These 3 Words Help Teach Kids Critical Thinking, Say Michelle Obama (and Psychologists) - Inc.com - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Heres what smiling Trump, Obama really talked about at Carter funeral - SILive.com - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- What Obama, Trump Discussed During Viral Interaction Finally Revealed - Newsradio WTAM 1100 - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Details About Trump & Obama's Exchange At Jimmy Carter's Funeral Revealed - Black Information Network - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama on confidence gender gap: Men have it, even when they havent earned it - Washington Examiner - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- What Obama, Trump Discussed During Viral Interaction Finally Revealed - iHeart - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Obama directed intelligence communitys Trump-Russia witch hunt, CIA review reveals - BLiTZ - Fears None But God - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- What Trump really said to Obama as they were spotted laughing at Jimmy Carter's funeral finally revealed - UNILAD - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Letter to the Editor: Deporter-in-Chief? Thats Obama, not Trump - courierherald.com - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 'Truth' behind Donald Trump and Barack Obama's friendly talk at Jimmy Carter's funeral as laughter stunned onlookers - The US Sun - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- What Donald Trump Said To Barack Obama At Jimmy Carter's Funeral - The Blast - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- We Finally Found Out What Trump And Obama Were Talking About At Jimmy Carter's Funeral - Yahoo - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- America Doesn't Like Trump: Obama and Even JD Vance are More Popular - thedailypoliticususa.com - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Barack Obama heads to the UK for talks - voice-online.co.uk - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama had to fight back tears during podcast. Heres why - PennLive - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Barack Obama to lift the lid on life in office in two live appearances - The Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- FanDuel adds former Obama advisor and ex-NFL head to policy team - EGR North America - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Obama's scathing assessment of Biden's failed campaign revealed - Fox News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- An Evening With Barack Obama Heading To Arenas In London And Dublin In September - Stereoboard.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- An Evening with President Barack Obama announced for London and Dublin - Mixtape Madness - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Former President Barack Obama to speak at Dublin event later this year - Hotpress - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama Say They're 'So Proud' of Daughter Malia on 27th Birthday: 'Keep Shining Bright, My Love' - People.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Steph Curry revealed what Barack Obama's golf game is like after playing with him and Jordan Spieth - The Golfing Gazette - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama Share Why They're "So Proud" of Malia on Her 27th Birthday - instyle.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama's new photo of Malia on her birthday leaves fans saying the same thing - hellomagazine.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Malia Obama celebrates her birthday on Fourth of July: Our favorite looks over the years - hola.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Your campaign is a mess: What incredulous Obama thought of Biden running again - Washington Examiner - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Malia Obama, Suri Cruise, Jennifer Garner, and more celebs wearing overalls - hola.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Bush, Obama and singer Bono fault Trumps gutting of USAID on agencys last day - Politico - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- USAID officially closes, attracting condemnation from Obama and Bush - BBC - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Mamdani campaign hires former Obama, Clinton spokesperson who wished death on Trump - New York Post - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Bush, Obama and singer Bono fault Trumps gutting of USAID on agencys last day - AP News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- News - Mrs. Obama: Nation Must Step up Forever for Military Families - DVIDS - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- News - Obama: Wont Accept Budget That Shortchanges Readiness - DVIDS - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Malia Obama shows off her summer abs on the way to the gym in Los Angeles - HOLA - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Readers respond: Obama deal would have avoided Trump bombing - OregonLive.com - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Rubio hails end of USAID as Bush, Obama deplore cost in lives - France 24 - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Obama, Bush and Bono bid a fond farewell to USAID - Daily Kos - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Fmr. Obama Treasury Sec. concerned Zohran Mamdani will ruin NYC if elected mayor - Fox News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Comments - Obama and Bush Team Up To Shred Trump Over USAID - The Bulwark - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- How Trump plays with new media says a lot about him as it did with FDR, Kennedy and Obama - The Conversation - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Obama Urges Americans to Pressure Reps to Reject Trump Megabill - The Rickey Smiley Morning Show - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Obama and Bush Unite in Rare Move Against Trump - The Daily Beast - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Bush, Obama and Bono Commend USAID Staff Members on Their Last Day - The New York Times - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Lucas: Obama and the Democrats paved the way for Irans nuclear program - Boston Herald - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Obama, Bush decry travesty of Trumps gutting of USAID on its last day - Al Jazeera - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Obama, Bush criticize Trump administration for gutting USAID - Washington Examiner - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- 10 Years Later: Looking Back On a Week That Shaped Our Country - Barack Obama Medium - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Bush, Obama and Bono bid farewell to USAID as 14m more deaths forecast without it - The Independent - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Obama, Bush and Bono eulogize USAID on final day - The Week - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- House Republicans call for investigation into Obama-appointed judge in Trump funding case - AOL.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Donald Trump's 'colossal mistake' BLASTED by Obama and Bush during surprise reunion that left Bono in tears - Daily Mail - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Physician Tina Shah, who served in Obama and Biden administrations, will challenge Kean in NJ-7 - New Jersey Globe - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama shares the three words her dying mother said that changed her outlook on life - TheGrio - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama's podcast puts her in limelight in new Trump era, but she's not coming to Democrats' rescue - Fox News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Bush and Obama fault Trumps gutting of USAID on agencys last day - MSN - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Don Jr.: "Affirmative Action" is why Obama won Nobel, not Trump - CNN - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- A former Obama speechwriter learned to surf with his Joe Rogan-loving brother-in-law. Heres what happened next. - Inquirer.com - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- The key difference between Obama and Trump on immigration - Orange County Register - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama shares 4 words her mom said at the end of her life that stuck with her - NPR - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Discusses Parental Pain After Malia Changes Her Last Name to Push Away From Her Parents - Yahoo - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Emotionally Shares Impact of 3 Words from Her Dying Mother - MSN - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Reveals the Four Dying Words from Her Mother That Changed the Way She Lives Her Life - parade.com - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama reveals why shes rarely seen with Barack - Yahoo - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- See the photos of Barack Obama School for Social Justice graduation ceremony - Lohud - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Viral video: Michelle Obama tears up while remembering her mother, reveals her take on death | Watch - Mint - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama says Barack Obama divorce rumor reactions are like 'the apocalypse' - USA Today - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- This week in whoppers: Former aide's 'anti-war' Obama fantasy, Nina Turner's ignorance on Iran's abuse of women and more - New York Post - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Obama and Biden sent American taxpayers' money to Iran...: White House reveals - WION - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump Jr Says Obama Getting Nobel Prize Over Father Is 'Affirmative Action' - Newsweek - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Gets Emotional Talking About the 3 Powerful Words Her Mom Said While Dying - People.com - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]