A former Obama economic advisor says inflation warnings about the new stimulus bill are ‘absurd’ – here’s why – msnNOW
Provided by Business Insider People shopping at an outdoor market in New York City in December 2020. Noam Galai/Getty Images
Every time an elected leader proposes a progressive policy that will cost money - expanding health care, for instance, or the wildly popular American Rescue Plan that the Biden White House is championing to combat the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic - the inflation hawks loudly warn that another Great Inflation is on the way.
To anyone below the age of 50, "inflation" sounds like a kind of boogeyman, a campfire ghost story used to warn against government spending.
I've never personally encountered hyperinflation in my life - I was born in 1976 - but the word triggers nightmares for those in my parents' generation. During The Great Inflation, which spanned the years between 1975 and 1982, prices skyrocketed out of control in grocery stores and gas stations around the country, surpassing wage growth by a huge margin and putting everyday necessities out of reach for many.
After nearly four decades without an inflation crisis, is hyperinflation still a danger? Could a $1.9 billion COVID relief bill set off a spate of higher prices around the United States? This week on "Pitchfork Economics," hosts Nick Hanauer and David Goldstein ask Austan Goolsbee, who served as chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers and is now a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, whether too much government spending could result in a $10 gallon of milk.
"I consider much of the inflation-mongering to be absurd," Goolsbee said, adding that rank partisanship is fueling most of the loudest claims. "90% of the inflation-mongering comes from the same people who deficit-hawk when Democrats are in office, but were absolutely for increasing the deficit when Donald Trump was president."
That said, the return of hyperinflation is always within the realm of the possible. Serious economists do warn that too much government spending might increase the output gap, which Goolsbee explained as "the difference between what we think is the potential is for the economy, and what the actual economy is."
In other words, if the government starts pumping more money into the economy than the economy is actually worth, the actual value of the American dollar begins to lose coherence, throwing the prices of imports and exports out of whack and potentially driving the cost of goods up.
"In a normal stimulus environment, you're trying to fill the output gap to get us back to where we were in unemployment and output and wages," Goolsbee explained.
Video: Economist Mark Zandi: Investors haven't fully grasped inflation 'dead ahead' (CNBC)
Economist Mark Zandi: Investors haven't fully grasped inflation 'dead ahead'
Click to expand
UP NEXT
Because the stock market has largely done very well, and because the wealthiest Americans have amassed over a trillion dollars in additional wealth since the beginning of the pandemic, some economists don't believe the current economic crisis is big enough to warrant spending.
Goolsbee believes it's a mistake to consider the American Rescue Plan to be a stimulus package in the first place. Unlike Obama's stimulus package, he explained, the plan that the Biden administration is pushing "isn't about trying to generate a big multiplier on government spending to raise the GDP, the way normal stimulus is. This is absolutely disaster relief money, in which you're trying to prevent permanent damage."
This spending isn't trying to offset generalized harm to the American economy as a whole. Instead it's counteracting the specific financial harm absorbed by the American people as they followed public health protocols to stop the spread of coronavirus. The money in the American Rescue Plan will go directly toward keeping small businesses open, keeping Americans housed without ruining their credit ratings, and feeding American families who have lost one or both sources of income.
Say the government gives someone $1,000 to make a rent payment that she otherwise wouldn't have been able to make, preventing her eviction. That's a very different kind of government spending than, say, propping up the GDP through high-level stimulus spending on financial institutions. It avoids the negative impact on the economy that a wave of mass evictions would represent, and that rent money is immediately recirculated through the economy in the form of consumer spending.
Goolsbee points to recent economic analysis of the American Rescue Plan, which projects that the output gap would probably grow by about 1% by the end of 2022 - an amount lower than the output gap after both President Trump's $2 trillion corporate tax cuts and the dot com bust of the George W. Bush Administration.
"We've had three times in the last 30 years where we were, for an extended period, running hotter than what [the economy under the American Rescue Plan] would run, without inflation," Goolsbee said.
But what if, for one time in four decades, the inflation hawks are right and prices do start to rise?
"We as societies, as economies, have a lot of tools for fighting inflation," Goolsbee said, "and we have virtually no tools for fighting deflation."
It's better for our leaders to risk a little bit of inflation that they can then alleviate through higher interest rates and other economic mechanisms, because that price would be nothing compared to what we would all pay if the economy tanks because too many businesses close, too many Americans lose their homes, and consumer spending plummets.
"But that said," Goolsbee said, "I think the case for inflation is a lot smaller than they say."
See the original post:
A former Obama economic advisor says inflation warnings about the new stimulus bill are 'absurd' - here's why - msnNOW
- Barack Obama bracket 2025: March Madness picks, predictions from former president - USA TODAY - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Kylie Kelce Has Perfect Response to Hateful Michelle Obama Message - Newsweek - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama breaks her silence on possibility of 2028 presidential run - PennLive - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Obamas to have a third child to fight divorce rumors? Michelle Obama breaks silence on expanding their fa - The Times of India - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Says Barack Wanted a Third Child but She Wasn't on Board: Were Gonna Get a Crazy One - PEOPLE - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Has Two Very Important Reasons Why She Will Never, Ever Run For President - BuzzFeed - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- How a Lunch With Michelle Obama Led to Netflixs The Residence - Washingtonian - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Insight: The vanishing Obama presidency - The Anniston Star - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Why Michelle Obama Said No to Having a 3rd Baby With Barack Obama - E! Online - E! NEWS - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Will USC womens basketball raise another banner? Heres what Barack Obama has to say - AOL - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama and Kylie Kelce, Both 5'11", Agree That Tall Women Should Get Dibs on the Tall Guys - PEOPLE - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Former Obama official calls AOC one of Dems' most effective messengers - Fox News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama worried about daughters Malia and Sasha turning up on Page Six while in the White House - Page Six - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama explains why she is not interested in politics after stepping back from spotlight - Page Six - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Kylie Kelce & Michelle Obama Bond Over Extremely Relatable Habit Theyre Often Teased About - Parade Magazine - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama reveals Barack Obama's wish for a third child amid divorce rumours: We should have a third - Hindustan Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama reveals the real reason she won't answer Democrat calls to run for president in 2028 - Daily Mail - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Is Still Taking the High Road on Social Media - Vanity Fair - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- UN resolution that passed on Obama admin 11th-hour abstention a mistake, US envoy says - JNS.org - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama reveals Barack's disappointment that she wouldn't have a third child amid divorce rumors - Daily Mail - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Hey, where's Barack Obama's NCAA bracket predictions in 2025? They were late! - For The Win - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Is In Her Rocker-Chic Hair Era and I Am Here For It - Yahoo Life - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama on why Sasha and Malia don't have other siblings - HOLA! USA - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- This is how Michelle Obama has kept her sanity when dealing with social media - Business Insider - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama on the Funny Reason She Said No When Barack Wanted Another Child - Harper's BAZAAR - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Michelle Obama to share unfiltered thoughts in new podcast 'IMO' with older brother - USA TODAY - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Is Barack Obama dating Jennifer Aniston? What to know about the rumors - PennLive - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- IMO with Michelle Obama review cleaning tips and long-winded platitudes - The Times - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama to Launch New Podcast With Sibling Craig Robinson - Hollywood Reporter - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Tiger Woods Biopic in the Works with Barack and Michelle Obama in Talks to Produce - PEOPLE - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama credits brother for convincing her to support Baracks presidential run - Yahoo Entertainment - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Former first lady Michelle Obama to visit Austin on Thursday - KVUE.com - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Democrats need to get over Michelle Obama - The Telegraph - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- In 2015, Obama committed the US to achieving UN global goals by 2030. Trump just rejected the goals - The Associated Press - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama launches podcast with her brother, Craig Robinson: Heres what to expect - HOLA! USA - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- IMO with Michelle Obama & Craig Robinson, review: a podcast so shallow it would insult the nearest puddle - The Telegraph - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Will Michelle Obama speak about 'divorce' in new podcast with brother? - The Times of India - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama credits brother for convincing her to support Baracks presidential run - The Independent - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Opens Up About Divorce in the Family and Freedom in New Podcast - The Daily Beast - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- 24 Iowa counties among nation's top 100 for swing from Obama to Trump - Bleeding Heartland - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Could Dems have their first primary candidate for 2028? Former Obama official ready to enter the race - The Independent - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama reveals the truth about 'unusual' White House marriage - Tyla - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama announces video podcast with brother Craig Robinson - Axios - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Said This One Quality of Barack's Is Her Biggest Pet Peeve - InStyle - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama: My brother had to talk me into being first lady - The Telegraph - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama announces new podcast with brother Craig Robinson after stepping back from the spotlight - Page Six - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama premieres podcast with brother Craig Robinson: "We are living in complicated times" - Marca English - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Tiger Woods biopic in the works with Barack, Michelle Obama in talks to produce - ABC Digital Syndication - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama, Brother Craig Robinsons New Podcast Takes Off On YouTube, Talks Life Lessons And Relations - News18 - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Tiger Woods Biopic in the Works with Barack and Michelle Obama in Talks to Produce - MSN - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Launches New Weekly Podcast with Her Brother Craig Robinson to Provide Hope - PEOPLE - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama reveals why she's launching a podcast in 2025 - The Times of India - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Daily Kickoff: The Trump-Obama double standard - Jewish Insider - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Obama archive in Hoffman Estates planned move to Maryland before appearance on DOGE list - Daily Herald - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Lifts the Lid on Childhood in Tiny 1-Bedroom Chicago Apartment as She and Her Brother Launch New Podcast - Yahoo Life - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Opinion | The Obama Plan That Presaged DOGE - The Wall Street Journal - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Hurricane, the hero Belgian Malinois who protected the Obama White House from intruder, has died - NPR - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Hurricane, the Secret Service Dog Who Protected Obama White House from Intruder in 2014, Dies at 15 - PEOPLE - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Hurricane, Dog Who Protected Obama White House From Intruder, Dies at 15 - The New York Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Why the Obama Presidential Center is immune to Trump's cuts - Axios - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Former President Barack Obama scheduled to speak at Hamilton College - WSYR - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Anthony Edwards Told Barack Obama 'I'm the Truth' in Viral 'Court of Gold' Video - Bleacher Report - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- "Man, y'all better stand down. I'm the truth" - Ant boldly tells US President Barack Obama that hes the real deal - Basketball Network - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Former President Barack Obama to speak at Hamilton College. What you need to know - Utica Observer Dispatch - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Elon Musk Granted Access to Student Loans by Obama-Appointed Judge - Newsweek - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Anthony Edwards demands some respect from Barack Obama, viral video reveals: Im the truth! - New York Post - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- NBA Star Anthony Edwards Goes Viral After Telling Obama 'I'm The Truth' - Black Information Network - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Manuals energetic rebrand of the Obama Foundation expands on its visual legacy - It's Nice That - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Anthony Edwards demands some respect from Barack Obama, viral video reveals: Im the truth! - NewsBreak - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Barack Obama Was Shocked by Anthony Edwards' Confidence During Team USA Meeting at Paris Olympics - Complex - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- "Man, y'all better stand down. I'm the truth" - Ant boldly tells US President Barack Obama that hes the real deal - MSN - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Anthony Edwards Confidently Tells Barack Obama, 'I'm the Truth' - TMZ - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Anthony Edwards has viral moment with former President Obama in new documentary - Dunking with Wolves - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- My Take: Didnt Trump gripe about Obama using too many executive orders? - Parker Pioneer - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Biggest Problem Right Now is 'The Way They Talk', Former Obama Strategist Says (Exclusive) - LatinTimes - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Anthony Edwards had the cockiest exchange with Barack Obama before the Olympics - For The Win - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Megyn Kelly calls Obama-appointed federal judges "absolute idiots" who were hired because of their "DEI profile" - Media Matters... - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Tariffs will add to inflation, ex-Obama economics advisor says - Channel 4 News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Donald Trump pardons former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich: How is he connected to Barack Obama? - The Times of India - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Fact Check: Yes, Trump rebuked Obama in 2012 for 'constantly issuing executive orders' - Yahoo - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]