Watch | ‘This Could Be Massive Escalation by China to Fundamentally Alter Status Quo’: Former NSA – The Wire
New Delhi: One of Indias most renowned China experts has said the present border skirmishes and tension between India and China are very worrying.
Although what we know is based on unverified newspaper reports which quote unnamed officials but, importantly, have not been denied by the government turns out to be actually true then we are seeing a massive escalation by China and an attempt to fundamentally change the status quo, says former National Security Advisor, Shivshankar Menon.
Menon, who demitted office as NSA in 2014 and also served as foreign secretary (2006-2009) and Indian ambassador to China (2000-2003), says the present situation is very different to the past and not comparable to the sort of incidents that happened in 2013 or 2017. As he put it, On this occasion China is occupying what it has never occupied before.
In an interview to The Wire, Shivshankar Menon spoke specifically about developments in the Galwan River Valley and Pangong Lake. He said the situation in Galwan has not changed since 1962 but now if reports that suggest there are a few thousand Chinese soldiers occupying Indian territory, backed up with artillery and heavy vehicles and satellite images of tented accommodation, are true, this represents a fundamental change in the status quo. He pointedly added that these newspaper reports have not been officially denied. We may be in a situation where China is trying to change the situation on the ground, he said.
Speaking about Pangong Lake, where reports suggest the Chinese have built defence structures and stopped India patrolling in a 50 square kilometre area where previously it had access are true, Menon said this is extremely serious. It means the Chinese are patrolling where India used to patrol in the past. This is another instance of China changing the status quo. He said reports that China has built permanent defence structures are worrying.
Menon told The Wire that the Indian government must absolutely insist on the restoration of the status quo ante i.e. the position on the ground prior to the present developments which, perhaps, date back to April. However, he pointedly added that this looks like another instance of Chinas two-step-forward-one-step-back strategy which permits China to retreat one step, thus suggesting a concession to the Indian side, while ending up with a net gain of one step.
Menon said this is precisely what happened in Doklam in 2017. After a 72-day face off, both sides withdrew but after that China occupied the rest of the Valley and has since then built 36 structures, three helipads and a number of metal tarred roads. Menon said he was worried that a similar outcome could be the end result of the present stand-off between India and China.
Menon said that he was concerned the government has not made its position clear even though the present situation has continued since April. Its silence suggests that everything is negotiable and that is not a good strategy for the Indian side. He said the government needs more and better strategic communication both internally and to the rest of the world so that China too could read and hear the message.
Menon made clear he had no doubt President Xi Jinping was aware of what was happening and, additionally, that it was happening with his approval. He added that this has serious implications for Indias relationship with China. He also pointed out that how the present problem is solved will affect the future course of the relationship.
Asked about reports in Fridays newspapers that both armies have moved their soldiers closer to the LAC right across its 3,500 kilometres length from Ladakh in the west and Arunachal Pradesh in the east, Menon said that the army can handle the military situation. He said the effective military balance has improved in Indias favour since 1962. However, he emphasized that this would have political and diplomatic repercussions that would significantly affect Indias relationship with China.
Asked by The Wire if he was worried that the situation, if not quickly resolved, could lead to conflict, Menon replied not yet. When it was put to him that this meant that there was a potential for the situation slipping out of control and an unintended accident happening, he replied You said it, not me.
However, Menon underlined that what China has done is fundamentally different to the Depsang problem of 2013. He pointed out Depsang was localised and only lasted for two or three weeks. Now it seems there is military activity possibly right across the 3,500-km LAC. He also added the wider relationship between Beijing and Delhi has altered over the past seven years. He said there are more points of contention today than common points between the two countries.
Asked for his assessment of the way the Modi government has handled the situation, Menon said it was difficult to comment because he did not know what the government has done. He said we are all relying on unverified newspaper reports based on interviews with unnamed officials.
Questioned about reports in several papers that the Indian army might have dropped its guard, either because it delayed annual exercises usually held in March because some soldiers got COVID-19 or because it was taken by surprise by the Chinese army, Menon said that now was not the time to go into this issue. At the moment we have a crisis that must be resolved. However, he added that afterwards we need an analysis of what happened, of what was done right and what was done wrong. He said we needed a proper post-mortem along the lines of what happened after Kargil in 2001.
Speaking to The Wire about why the Chinese had acted in the way they have and at this time when there is a pandemic alongside an economic crisis Menon suggested that this was part of a general shift in Chinas behaviour. He said for a variety of internal and external reasons, China was behaving more assertively and its response relies on ultra-nationalism. In this context, he cited Chinas tariff war with Australia, its various disputes with the US, its behaviour in Hong Kong, its attitude to Taiwan and its action in the South China Sea. What was happening on the India-China border was part of this general pattern.
Menon said he did not believe that this was just signalling by China because its a most inefficient way of doing so We are all guessing what the signal is.
Menon said some people hold the view that China senses this is her moment because the rest of the world has been weakened by COVID-19. However, he added, this is not a view he subscribes to.
Continue reading here:
Watch | 'This Could Be Massive Escalation by China to Fundamentally Alter Status Quo': Former NSA - The Wire
- Working with new NSA Director General has been good thus far Bawa Majeed - Citi Sports Online - May 15th, 2024 [May 15th, 2024]
- NSA top Trinity Christian to advance to VISAA Division II semifinals - The Suffolk News-Herald - Suffolk News-Herald - May 15th, 2024 [May 15th, 2024]
- Former NSA head Paul Nakasone to helm national security institute at Vanderbilt - The Record from Recorded Future News - May 15th, 2024 [May 15th, 2024]
- US is still chasing down pieces of Chinese hacking operation, NSA official says - The Record from Recorded Future News - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- 6 CISO Takeaways from the NSA's Zero-Trust Guidance - Dark Reading - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- St. John's M.S. in Cyber and Information Security Earns Key NSA Validation - St John's University News - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- NSA girls lacrosse unleash the offense in defeat of First Flight - The Suffolk News-Herald - Suffolk News-Herald - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Three Things to Know About an NSA Career in 2024 - ClearanceJobs - January 3rd, 2024 [January 3rd, 2024]
- Senate votes to confirm Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to lead CYBERCOM and NSA/CSS - United States Cyber Command - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Highlights AI, Partnerships in 2023 Cyber Review - MeriTalk - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Blocked 10 Billion Connections to Malicious and Suspicious Domains - SecurityWeek - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- Unsanctioned election of new Rugby Ghana board null and void NSA - GhanaWeb - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Publishes 2023 Cybersecurity Year in Review - National Security Agency - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- Senate votes to confirm Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to lead CYBERCOM and NSA/CSS - National Security Agency - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Reiterates Achievements in AI & Defense Against Russia, China in 2023 Cybersecurity Review - Executive Gov - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- How to Make $500 Monthly From NSA Stock - Yahoo Finance - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- NSA appoints new Cyber Command head | SC Media - SC Media - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- Senate Confirms Biden's Pick To Lead NSA and Military's Cyber Force - The Messenger - December 23rd, 2023 [December 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Releases International Cybersecurity Guidance on AI System Development; Rob Joyce Quoted - Executive Gov - December 1st, 2023 [December 1st, 2023]
- Guidance for Securing AI Issued by NSA, NCSC-UK, CISA, and ... - National Security Agency - December 1st, 2023 [December 1st, 2023]
- The Pannun Affair reveals a penetrated Indian government ... - Bharat Karnad - December 1st, 2023 [December 1st, 2023]
- "Unconscionable": Indian Student Held Captive, Forced Into Labour In US - NDTV - December 1st, 2023 [December 1st, 2023]
- Tinubu met a bad economy but he's worsening it | TheCable - TheCable - December 1st, 2023 [December 1st, 2023]
- Crack a 1999 NSA Cryptography Standard and Win a Bounty - The New Stack - October 23rd, 2023 [October 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Cybersecurity Information Sheet Pushes for Zero Trust Security in DOD Devices - Executive Gov - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- Top 10 misconfigurations: An NSA checklist for CISOs - The Stack - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- NSA and Partners Issue Additional Guidance for Secure By Design ... - National Security Agency - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- NSA Shares Recommendations to Advance Device Security Within ... - National Security Agency - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- NSA calls for a 'root and branch' review of Red Tractor - Farmers Guardian - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- Nansemond-Suffolk tennis falls to Norfolk Academy Thursday - The ... - Suffolk News-Herald - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- Israel's NSA warns of US intervention as Gaza conflict escalates - IndiaTimes - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- The U.S. government is still in its Tumblr era. - Slate - October 21st, 2023 [October 21st, 2023]
- NSA Releases a Repository of Signatures and Analytics to Secure Operational Technology - HS Today - HSToday - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- NSA releases a repository of signatures and analytics to secure ... - National Security Agency - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- A Flourishing Wildflower: Sandra Seizes the Day at NSA - National Security Agency - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- NSA and U.S. Agencies Issue Best Practices for Open Source ... - National Security Agency - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- Medical societies representing radiology, emergency medicine and ... - Radiology Business - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- Cybersecurity is a team sport; know your position and the defensive ... - University of Nevada, Reno - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- Why only 1% of the Snowden Archive will ever be published - ComputerWeekly.com - October 13th, 2023 [October 13th, 2023]
- New NSA center will oversee development and integration of AI capabilities - SiliconANGLE News - October 5th, 2023 [October 5th, 2023]
- NSA- and CISA-Led Panel Release Report on Developer and Vendor Challenges to Identity and Access Management ... - HSToday - October 5th, 2023 [October 5th, 2023]
- NSA and ESF Partners Release Report on MFA and SSO Challenges - National Security Agency - October 5th, 2023 [October 5th, 2023]
- Unexpected Twists, Unified Community: Vivian's NSA Journey - National Security Agency - October 5th, 2023 [October 5th, 2023]
- NSA, CIA senior officials address artificial intelligence threats and ... - intelNews.org - October 5th, 2023 [October 5th, 2023]
- Food must be at the centre of environmental policy decisions NSA - Meat Management - October 5th, 2023 [October 5th, 2023]
- NSA to stand up AI security center - Defense One - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- NSA, FBI, CISA, and Japanese Partners Release Advisory on PRC ... - CISA - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- President Obama's NSA-Modified Cell Phones on Display at the ... - National Security Agency - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Striving for Excellence: Silvino's Path to an NSA Career - National Security Agency - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Commissioners, mayor meet with NSA Crane's new commanding ... - Sullivan Daily Times - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Privacy watchdog fractures over 702 opinion - POLITICO - POLITICO - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Nic Carter doubles down on theory Bitcoin was invented by NSA - Cointelegraph - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- Reality Winner Release Date, Trailer, and More - The Mary Sue - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- Cyber Firm Started By Ex-Director Of NSA Prepares For Bankruptcy - Aviation Week - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- No special exemption for actions like this: US NSA - IndiaTimes - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- New revelations from the Snowden archive surface - ComputerWeekly.com - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- Readout of NSA Jake Sullivan's Meeting with CCP Politburo ... - US Embassy & Consulates in China - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- NSA to hold webinar on impacts of UK livestock vaccine shortage ... - Agriland.co.uk - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- NSA Scotland to host field day at the end of next month - Agriland.co ... - Agriland.co.uk - September 23rd, 2023 [September 23rd, 2023]
- Cyber Command, NSA pick advances to Senate floor, but path to confirmation remains blocked - The Record from Recorded Future News - July 30th, 2023 [July 30th, 2023]
- Former NSA-er Harry Coker Nominated National Cyber Director - Dark Reading - July 30th, 2023 [July 30th, 2023]
- Preventing Web Application Access Control Abuse - CISA - July 30th, 2023 [July 30th, 2023]
- Viv takes on double role at NSA North Sheep - The Westmorland Gazette - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- Food security action call as Sunak talks hailed by NSA - The Press & Journal - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- Mother arrested for abandoning baby like 'trash' in US: Reports - NewsDrum - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- EAM holds talks with Swedish PM, NSA in Stockholm - United News of India - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- Sheep farmer hailed for 'unwavering work' in protecting native breeds - FarmingUK - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- Airtel MD on 5G rollout: Not in a maniac rush to compete on the number of sites - Times of India - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- Personal injury + the No Surprises Act - Chiropractic Economics - May 20th, 2023 [May 20th, 2023]
- NSA Gives Assessment of Cyber Threats from Russia, China, and AI - Data Center Knowledge - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- Nagaland: NSA for immediate restoration of peace and order - Morung Express - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- Sullivan to convene US-India-Saudi-UAE NSAs meet in Riyadh over weekend - Economic Times - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- Leaked Data Reveal the US is an Unchecked Surveillance Empire - teleSUR English - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- China's report on U.S. cyber attacks only scratches surface of ... - CGTN - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- Where is our national cybersecurity strategy? All over the place - SiliconANGLE News - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- Scottish sheep sector 'concerned' amid lynx reintroduction talks - FarmingUK - May 6th, 2023 [May 6th, 2023]
- Bear caught on video at NSA Bethesda - FOX 5 DC - May 4th, 2023 [May 4th, 2023]
- VIDEO: Bear caught on camera rummaging through trash near NSA Bethesda - WJLA - May 4th, 2023 [May 4th, 2023]
- Bear spotted roaming on installation at NSA Bethesda - CBS News - May 4th, 2023 [May 4th, 2023]
- Anticipated increases in corporate legal spend: Are they a good thing? - Thomson Reuters - May 4th, 2023 [May 4th, 2023]