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Today, OPEC+ grants Saudi Arabia an oil win, Finland elects a new prime minister, and Israels far-right firebrand fights for his own national guard.

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A trip to the gas pump may soon come with sticker shock after OPEC+ announced another set of cuts to oil production on Sunday. Starting in May, the oil cartelled by Saudi Arabia and Russiawill slash output by 1.65 million barrels a day in a bid to push up the global price of crude.

The announcement comes amid a crucial shift in the global economy: Beijings decision to lift zero-COVID restrictions brought its sizable market back online, increasing demand for crude. This created an opportune moment for OPEC+ nations to raise oil prices, said Raad Alkadiri, managing director of energy, climate, and resources at Eurasia Group.

Crude prices were also beginning to settle after last months banking crisis led many hedge funds to fear they were risky assets and sell their oil shares. OPEC+ hopes cutting production will reverse weeks of macroeconomic uncertainty.

But not everyone is happy with the decisionespecially in Washington, where the Biden administration is concerned the move will cause gas prices to rise at home and harm efforts to curb high inflation around the world. Central banks are struggling to rein in inflation without raising interest ratesparticularly in Europe, which could be facing a looming recession in the coming months.

Its also yet another sign of the increasingly rocky relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has refused to cut ties with Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia. Against U.S. wishes, the cartel announced in October 2022 that it would cut its output by 2 million barrels of oil a day. In response, the United States partially drained its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to support Ukraine and keep oil prices in check.

Last week, however, President Joe Biden said it could take years to refill the reserve, meaning the Wests biggest powerhouse has little ammunition left. They basically used all the bullets they had last year, said Livia Gallarati, a senior analyst at Energy Aspects. Now, theyre left with little to nothing that they can do to counterbalance the impact of the OPEC production cuts.

But its the major oil importers in less developed parts of the world that are expected to bear the brunt of rising petrol prices. Alkadiri predicts Pakistan in particular, which is already struggling with a severe energy crisis, could face significant financial pressure.

Since the nations that announced oil cuts are doing so voluntarily, it is possible for OPEC+ to reverse course. But the likelihood of the bloc doing so is minimal, Gallarati said, and the damage to its relationships with Western allies is done.

China Has Been Waging a Decades-Long, All-Out Spy War by Calder Walton

Israel Is Somewhere Its Never Been Before by Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer

Bidens State Department Needs a Reset by Stephen M. Walt

Tuesday, April 4: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Brussels.

G-7 trade ministers meet virtually.

Wednesday, April 5: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Poland.

Wednesday, April 5, to Saturday, April 8: French President Emmanuel Macron visits China.

Thursday, April 6: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko meet.

Helsinkis electoral twist. Finlands ruling party suffered a bitter defeat, with Prime Minister Sanna Marin losing to center-right former Finance Minister Petteri Orpo in Sundays election. Orpos National Coalition Party secured 20.8 percent of the vote, compared to the 19.9 percent won by Marins Social Democratic Party. Candidate Riikka Purras populist Finns Party won 20.1 percent, a record for the right-wing group.

Marin garnered international attention after securing the top post in 2019 at the age of 34. As the countrys youngest leader in history, Marin won praise at home and abroad for successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic, Russias invasion of Ukraine, and Finlands NATO accession bidset to be officially signed on Tuesday. However, she faced political embarrassment in the summer of 2022 when video of her out partying and drinking with friends surfaced. She also failed to keep her party together on key Indigenous rights legislation, journalist John Last wrote for Foreign Policy.

In contrast, Orpo is known for his handling of the 2015 migrant crisis while internal minister. He campaigned on tax and spending cuts, notably to welfare programs like unemployment benefits, as well as reducing public debt. Speaking to journalist Emily Schultheis for Foreign Policy, Orpo said hed be willing to work with the other candidates in building a potential coalitionif significant policy differences were overcome first.

Moscow arrests Russian dissident. Authorities detained a 26-year-old anti-war activist suspected of being involved with Sundays bombing in St. Petersburg, Russia, which killed a pro-Russia blogger. Around 30 people were injured in the blast. Moscow blamed Ukrainian intelligence as well as agents linked to Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny for the attackwithout providing evidence.

The Kremlins announcement indicates Moscow may begin to further crack down on Russian dissidents in the coming days. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia under President Vladimir Putin has engaged in intense disinformation and propaganda campaigns to combat the West.

Justice comes to Kosovo. Former Kosovar President Hashim Thaci begins his trial at a war crimes tribunal in The Hague on Monday. He stands accused of committing more than 100 murdersfrom executions to the deaths of mistreated prisonersduring Kosovos 1998-1999 war of independence against Serbia. Thaci pleaded not guilty.

The guerrilla leader targeted enemies of the Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army during his reign. Thaci, along with three other men, each face six counts of crimes against humanity and four counts of war crimes.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir may be the only member of the countrys current government to have secured an even stronger political position from Israels recent turmoil. On Sunday, Israels government approved his call to form a new Israeli National Guard within the National Security Ministry.

The far-right politician is known for pushing Jewish supremacy and anti-Arab racism within Israels Religious Zionist Party. He has endorsed increasing Israeli settlements in the West Bank and sparked anger in January after making a controversial visit to the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa Mosque complex in Jerusalem, a site sacred to both Jews and Muslims. He has also been convicted multiple times for incitement and supporting a Jewish terrorist group.

Now, critics of Ben-Gvir, such as former police chief Moshe Karadi, worry that the national guard, if under Ben-Gvirs direct control, will act as his personal militia and could be used to instigate a coup. A committee composed of the countrys security agencies and the relevant government ministries is expected to discuss the responsibilities ofand control over the new force and submit its recommendations to the cabinet within 90 days, according to a government press release.

It seems the French have found the one thing they can all agree on: banning scooters. Parisians voted to outlaw electric scooters in the capital on Sunday, with an overwhelming 90 percent of votes in favor of the law. Now, if only they can come together on issues like pension reform.

Originally posted here:
OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts Hurt Western Economic Prospects - Foreign Policy