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That is probably all for today.... heres our news story on the main news event of the day, president Zelenskiys speech:

And some background reading about how Davos isnt quite the same this year.

Well be back tomorrow. GW

Updated at 11.54EDT

Finishing on a positive note, David Rubenstein argues that the current crisis is a less serious economic shock than the Covid-19 crisis, the financial crisis, or the dot-com bust.

Itll be a mild recession, if its a recession, he says. [actually, hes been using banana for recession, echoing an advisor to President Carter who didnt want to scare the electorate].

Onto the crypto crash, and David Rubenstein makes a salient point:

And on the turmoil in stablecoins, Georgieva says that when a stablecoin is backed 1-to-1 with its underlying asset, then its stable. If not, then its a pyramid - and pyramids eventually collapse.

Regulating the stablecoins, ensuring interoperability of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) is something we need to work on, she adds.

Heres a video clip of IMF chief Kristaline Georgieva warning a few minutes ago that 2022 will be a tough year (as it has been already!).

She also points out that the oil price dipped in the last week on signs of economic slowdown, but food kept rising.

Thats because you can shrink petrol use when growth slows, but people still have to eat every day.

Billionaire businessman David Rubenstein tells the Global Economic Outlook panel that the markets have overreacted this year, with Wall Street tumbling to around bear market territory.

And he denies that the slump in technology stocks this year is a repeat of the dot-com crash in 2000.

Back then, companies with little more than a business plan, without revenues let alone profits, had floated in the dot-com boom. Its not the same situation today.

IMF managing director Kristaline Georgieva adds that two countries are already in recesssion -- Ukraine (which could contract by 35% this year), and Russia.

Others, such as Sri Lanka, have been caught up in debt crisis due to the shocks from the war.

A Davos panel on the global economic outlook is also underway.

And it starts with a show of hands -- how many of the brains trust at the World Economic Forum are concerned that we are going into recession?

About half the hands in the room go up.

Q: So are we already in recession in some countries?

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva says not, but warns that the economic outlook has darkened since the IMFs last forecasts.

She cites the food crisis, saying that anxiety over access to food at a reasonable price, globally, is hitting the roof.

Plus, the climate crisis has gone nowhere and the digital money has hit a little rough spot (the slump in cryptocurrency assets).

Looking ahead, Georgieva says we may see recessions in some countries which were weak, perhaps hadnt recovered from the pandemic, or very dependent on Russian oil.

But we have not seen that yet, she insists.

However, Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup is also on the panel, and she warns that Russia, Recession and (interest) Rates are the key factors to watch.

Asked if Europe will experience a recession, Fraser replies Yes, adding that she hopes shes wrong.

[On rates, European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said today the ECB is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September.

That made the ECN the latest central banker to turn more hawkish, in the face of high inflation].

More from the panel:

Updated at 11.28EDT

With the World Cup in Qatar looming at the end of the year, the event had its own session in Davos.

A feisty affair with over the top tackles it was not, as the panel dished out platitude after platitude.

Gianni Infantino, the president of FIFA, said five billion people would tune in and it would be the best World Cup ever.

Patrice Motsepe, president of the Confederation of African Football, said he couldnt think of a better place to hold the World Cup.

Ronaldo, the Brazilian striker, said it was marvelous he was a role model to todays superstars. Former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger spent a couple of minutes talking about how good coaching was about getting the best out of people.

Nobody was going to get into trouble mentioning the circumstances under which Qatar was awarded the right to hold the tournament or the deaths of workers on the construction sites.

The Amir of the State of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, has hit out at criticism over its hosting of the World Cup late this year.

In a keynote speech here in Davos, the Amir says the Middle East has suffered from discrimination for decades - from people not knowing us, and in some cases refusing to get to know us.

He says:

Even today there are still people who cannot accept the idea that an Arab Muslim country would host a tournament like the World Cup.

He adds:

These individuals, including many in positions of influence, have launched attacks at a pace not seen before when a mega sporting event was hosted by other countries on different continents,

He doesnt say any particular countries, but that each had its own particular problems and challenges.

However.... concerns over human rights protections in Qatar are well documented, with Amnesty reporting that tens of thousands of migrant workers still face forced labour.

Last year, the Guardian reported that more than 6,500 migrant workers from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have died in Qatar since it won the right to host the World Cup 10 years ago.

And last week, a group of non-government organisations said Fifa should pay reparations of at least $440m (356m) to migrant workers whose human rights have been compromised by the Qatar World Cup.

Plus, there are also concerns about the safety of LGBTQ+ people in Qatar, given same-sex relationships are directly criminalised under the laws of the Gulf state.

The economic disruption caused by Covid-19 and the Ukraine war will drive up inflation, hit growth and create more food insecurity, a new survey just released show.

The World Economic Forums Community of Chief Economists predicts further declines in real wages in both high- and low-income economies, as inflation rises faster than pay.

The world faces the worst food insecurity in recent history especially in the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Developing economies face trade-offs between the risk of debt crisis and securing food and fuel, it adds, (as Sri Lanka showed by defaulting last week).

Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the World Economic Forum, warns the world is on the cusp of a vicious cycle that could impact societies for years, and erase the progress since the end of the cold war.

The pandemic and war in Ukraine have fragmented the global economy and created far-reaching consequences that risk wiping out the gains of the last 30 years.

Leaders face difficult choices and trade-offs domestically when it comes to debt, inflation and investment. Yet business and government leaders must also recognise the absolute necessity of global cooperation to prevent economic misery and hunger for millions around the world.

Gabriela Bucher, executive director of Oxfam, says developed economies are neglecting the Covid-19 crisis in emerging economies - with potentially deadly results.

Bucher tells a Davos panel that vaccine injustice is a risk.

The rich world moves on, thinking that Covid is no longer a problem as they are vaccinated. So they forget that global south still faces waves of the virus, and low vaccination rates (just 15% across Africa).

She says:

The focus moves away and that is not addressed.

Bucher explains that the vaccine isnt yet readily available globally at the scale needed. That means that...

...in six months, the complacency that is perhaps felt now could be really deadly.

Modernas CEO, Stphane Bancel, agrees that there are several reasons to worry, both in the south and the north.

In the US, only half of vaccinated people got boosted with a third dose, so he worries about the next fall (autumn) and winter as their antibody levels falls.

Chinas outbreaks are a concern too; a more infectious virus is harder to control with the measures which were very successful in 2020.

We always need to be humble with biology - and remember that a more virulent virus could emerge over time, says Bancel.

It was good news that Omicron was less virulent than Delta, but we are always a day away, a week away, a month away or a quarter away from a new variant thats more virulent.

Updated at 10.05EDT

Michael McCaul, Republican congressman, has warned that the Ukraine conflict could lead to a new hot war between Russia and the West.

Speaking on a panel here in Davos, McCaul says Russias tactics have been almost World War Two-style, and that the US military have been astonished by how incompetent Russias military have been.

Putin has totally miscalculated, he says, having lost a third of its invasion force.

But warning that the conflict could escalate, McCaul (who represents Texas 10th Congressional District) says:

Its a cold war, but its on the verge of becoming a hot war.

He points out that Putin has now brought in the Butcher of Syria (General Aleksandr Dvornikov) and put him in charge of the war.

McCaul says the biggest concern is that the Butcher of Syria could use chemical weapons, or a tactical nuclear weapon.

We need to think about how NATO, and the world, would respond if that happened, he adds.

Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group is also on the panel, which asks if a new Cold War is taking shape between major powers.

Bremmer says we are in a new cold war, and closer to a new hot war than hed like.

But while there has been a forced decoupling, putting Russia into a lot of trouble and a pariah state with the West, it is not a pariah for countries such as India, China, and Brazil.

Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze says the conflict is between world and anti-world, and that Ukraine needs more sanctions, more weapons, more backing.

Go here to read the rest:
Davos day one: Zelenskiy calls for maximum sanctions against Russia; recession fears on the rise business live - The Guardian