Mediaboss Marketing

We shouldnt have triggered Article 50 at all before agreeing an exit deal

When John Kerr, the British diplomat who drafted Article 50 wrote it, he believed it would only be used by a dictatorial regime that, having had its right to vote on EU decisions suspendedwould then, in high dudgeon, want to storm out.

The process was designed to maximise the leverage of the remaining members of the bloc and disadvantage the departing state. At one stage, it was envisaged that any country not ratifying the Lisbon Treaty would be expelled under the process Article 50 is not intended to get the best Brexit deal or anything like it.

Contrary to Theresa Mays expectation that she would be able to talk to individual member states, Article 50 is designed to ensure that agreement is reached de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous about you, in your own home, but without you, as I wrote before the referendum result.

There is absolutely no reason for a departing nation to use Article 50 before agreement has largely been reached. A full member of the European Union obviously has more leverage than one that is two years away from falling out without a deal. There is no reason to trigger Article 50 until youre good and ready, and the United Kingdoms negotiating team is clearly very far from either being good or ready.

As Dominic Cummings, formerly of Vote Leave, said during the campaign:No one in their right mind would begin a legally defined two-year maximum period to conduct negotiations before they actually knew, roughly speaking, what the process was going to yieldthat would be like putting a gun in your mouth and pulling thetrigger.

If we were going to trigger Article 50, we shouldnt have triggered it when we did

As I wrote before Theresa May triggered Article 50 in March, 2017 is very probably the worst year you could pick to start leaving the European Union. Elections across member states meant the bloc was in a state of flux, and those elections were always going to eat into the time.

May has got lucky in that the French elections didnt result in a tricky co-habitation between a president of one party and a legislature dominated by another, as Emmanuel Macron won the presidency and a majority for his new party, Rpublique en Marche.

It also looks likely that Angela Merkel will clearly win the German elections, meaning that there wont be a prolonged absence of the German government after the vote in September.

But if the British government was determined to put the gun in its own mouth and pull the trigger, it should have waited until after the German elections to do so.

The government should have made a unilateral offer on the rights of EU citizens living in the United Kingdom right away

The rights of the three million people from the European Union in the United Kingdom were a political sweet spot for Britain. We dont have the ability to enforce a cut-off date until we leave the European Union, it wouldnt be right to uproot three million people who have made their lives here, there is no political will to do so more than 80 per cent of the public and a majority of MPs of all parties want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens and as a result there is no plausible leverage to be had by suggesting we wouldnt protect their rights.

If May had, the day she became PM, made a unilateral guarantee and brought forward legislation guaranteeing these rights, it would have bought Britain considerable goodwill as opposed to the exercise of fictional leverage.

Although Britains refusal to accept the EUs proposal on mutually shared rights has worried many EU citizens, the reality is that, because British public opinion and the mood among MPs is so sharply in favour of their right to remain, no one buys that the government wont doit. So it doesnt buy any leverage while an early guarantee in July of last year would have bought Britain credit.

But at least the government hasnt behaved foolishly about money

Despite the pressure on wages caused by the fall in the value of the pound and the slowdown in growth, the United Kingdom is still a large and growing economy that is perfectly well-placed to buy the access it needs to the single market, provided that it doesnt throw its toys out of the pram over paying for its pre-agreed liabilities, and continuing to pay for the parts of EU membership Britain wants to retain, such as cross-border policing activity and research.

So theres that at least.

The rest is here:
Brexit Big Brother is watching: how media moguls control the news - New Statesman