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Shehab Al-Makahleh

Shehab Al-Makahleh is a senior journalist who has written for various media outlets and newspapers around the world. He is also a senior advisor at Gu

Can Saif Gaddafi unite Libya with the support of the countrys numerous tribes?

Understanding the three key actors in the Libyan Civil War is critical during the coming months. Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is pushing his Operation Dignity forces to the west and south of the country. His goal is to dislodge the failing UN-mandated Government of National Accord (GNA) and the fractured General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli.

Former adviser to the deceased Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, his cousin Ahmad Gaddaf al-Dam, is planning a return to Libya from his home in Egypt, and Gaddafis son Seif al-Islam Gaddafi, who was released from prison least year, is now garnering tribal support for a potential national role.

In fact, recent developments in the beleaguered North African country reveal that preparations are underway for Gaddafis son Seif to be Libyas next president following an interim period led by Haftar, with assistance from al-Dam. The tribes will be playing a key role in unifying the country behind these men.

These are not speculations. Indeed, al-Dam is currently preparing for his cousin, Seif, to have a say in the countrys political arena after ensuring the latters safety. Last summer, authorities released Gaddafi from prison after lifting his death sentence as a result of negotiations between Zintan authorities and the Gaddafi tribe.

According to sources close to al-Dam, who is based in Egypt and pays frequent visits to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Gaddafi will soon deliver a speech to the people of Libya once the country is fully liberated from actors in the civil war that the Tobruk-based administration, which Haftar is loyal to, recognizes as terrorist groups.

This will be done with assistance from Cairo and Abu Dhabi and logistical support from both Russia and the US, the latter of which is to guard Libyan oil fields. These plans entail American oil companies developing Libyan oil wells, guarded byUS military. Reportedly, Russia will train Libyas armed forces.

Gaddafi and al-Dam are holding peace talks with major Libyan tribes. Haftars talks in Moscow earlier this year were aimed at rehabilitating the LNA and supplyingit with Russian weapons. There aregood oddsthat the tribes that stood by Gaddafi in the past will fully support the LNAs fight against Salafist jihadist militias that have won control over parts of post-Gaddafi Libya. Al-Dam is now looking into the role that the tribal structure would play to achieve peace, stability and reconciliation in the country to reunify it after six years of violent unrest thathave resulted in hundreds of thousands of Libyans dying and being displaced.

The sources also talk about the key points of Gaddafis upcoming speech that will address the situation in the country and the need forreunification in order to counter all potential risks and threats, as well as exert all efforts to rebuild the country, drawingfrom oil revenues. Gaddafi will also highlight the importance of having good relations with African states, countries in southern Europe, US and Russia.

Moscow has been playing both sides of the Libyan Civil War by maintaining ties with the Tripoli- and Tobruk-based governments that broke ranks in 2014, splitting the country between the west Tripolitania, and east Cyrenaica. Yet Russia may well determine that no Libyan civilians can effectively rule the North African country and that the authorities in Tobruk, under the leadership of Haftar who may pave the way for Gaddafi should receive the Kremlins all-out support. In the event that the ineffectual, albeit internationally recognized GNA, crumbles this year, such a scenario would become increasingly likely.

As of now, the Russians seem to trust Haftar and prefer dealing with the field marshalmore than other Libyan officials. Although the Trump administration has yet lay out its vision for Libya, the Tobruk-based authorities are seeking to secure a commitment from the45th American president that hell lend Haftar future US support.

On April 10, Haftar met with a high-ranking US military official in Abu Dhabi to discuss the topic. Although the US still, at least officially, recognizes the GNA as Libyas legitimate government, the anti-Islamist composition of Trumps administration and Haftars narrative about leading the struggle against terrorism and extremism in Libya may well convinceto Washington withdraw its support for the Tripoli-based government and back its rival in the east.

Muammar Gaddafis daughter, Aysha, is ruled out of the presidential race as her brother Seif has a better chance of representing a united country upon receiving the full support and allegiance of Libyan tribes. With more than 140 tribes and clans, Libya is believed to be the most tribal nation in the Middle East, where every single tribe has a sayin a future Libyan government. This is well understood by Gaddafi, Haftar and al-Dam.

The goal is to orchestrate an effort to allow Gaddafi to lead the nation with a full support of those tribes whose influence extends beyond Libyan borders, including Gaddadfa, Bani Salim, Bani Hilal, Warfallah, Kargala, Tawajeer, Ramla, Turareg and Magariha. For this purpose, meetings were held in western Libya, near the Algerian border, to discuss this matter.

Perhaps only Saif Gaddafi is capable of reuniting the country in spite of friction and violent conflict that tears Libya apart. There are indications that there is growing support for himamong Libyas main tribes. Those who fought against his fathers regime during the 2011 revolution may not agree with this solution. But whether those forces will overcome their divisions, which are playing out in deadly clashes in Tripoli, and unify enough to really have a say in this development remains doubtful.

In other words, infighting seems likely to overtake any unified attempt to counter Gaddafis ascent. Gaddafi is pushing a Truth and Reconciliation Committee to air grievances to bring the shattered country together. His policy also seeks, along with Haftar and al-Dam, the lifting of sanctions to release frozen funds from the Libyan Investment Authority and those owed to the Central Bank of Libya to give theeconomy a much needed boost.

The tribes have high stakes in the countrys future leadership. The coming few weeks will witness many developments, starting with the trips that Haftar and al-Dam will pay to a Egypt, Russia and the UAE after they are given acarte blanche by the tribes whowill voice their allegiance to Gaddafi to be the next Libyan leader.

The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observers editorial policy.

Photo Credit:NatanaelGinting

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Who Will Govern Libya Later This Year? - Fair Observer