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BY LEONID BERSHIDSKY

Those waiting for the first signs of cooperation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin should keep an eye on Libya. The scene of an open rivalry between the European Union and Russia could suddenly turn on Trump, who could turn to Putin.

Libya is important for three reasons. Its the starting point of the so-called Central Mediterranean route by which tens of thousands of undocumented immigrants reach Europe. Its also a major oil producer that can affect global prices. Lastly, the chaos in Libya makes it, in U.S. terminology, a terrorist safe haven. Thats why presidents Obama and Trump have tried to limit the entry of Libyan citizens and those who have visited the country.

At an informal summit on Malta on Friday European states affirmed their support for the U.N.-backed government, run from Tripoli by Prime Minister Fayez Mustafa al-Serraj. They also backed a deal Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni signed on with Serraj. Italy is taking the lead in funding the construction of refugee camps in Libya, and the E.U. as a whole recently earmarked an additional 200 million euros for its efforts to keep potential migrants in Libya, Tunisia and Niger. But refugees are not Putins priority in Libya. Hes more interested in restoring Russian influence there, and establishing a military presence if he can.

Under Moamar Gaddafi, Libya was a Russian ally, a playground for Russian energy companies, and a buyer of Russian weapons. When he fell in 2011, the Russian state railroad monopoly lost a contract to build a line along the Mediterranean.

Putin watched the Arab Spring with dismay not just because it dispatched kleptocrats like himself, but also because those secular authoritarian rulers were often replaced with Islamists. To Putin, these strongmen were a bulwark against jihadism. He drew a line at the attempt to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, forged a relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and restored ties with Turkeys Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His alliance with Iran fits that line of behavior because Shia Iranians are hostile to Sunni extremists that Putin considers especially dangerous since they emerged as a force in separatist Chechnya in the 1990s.

In Libya, Putins axis of secular authoritarians cannot include Serraj since he holds onto power with support from some Islamist groups and Putins Western adversaries. Khalifa Haftar, a powerful military commander who controls eastern Libya and resists the Serraj government, fits the bill much better.

Haftar chased Islamist fighters out of Benghazi and took over Libyas key oil terminals from pro-government forces last September, boosting the countrys output. The Kremlin has been cultivating a relationship with Haftar, inviting him for a visit to Moscow last November, then hosting him on the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in January, where he held a teleconference with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Russia is obliged to follow the U.N. arms embargo against any Libyan forces except the al-Serraj government, so it cannot provide official military aid to Haftar. There have been unconfirmed reports, however, that the Kremlin has struck a deal to supply Haftar via Algeria, a long-time Moscow arms client.

Thats potentially scary for the E.U. If a Putin ally takes over Libya, any deal on their primary issue refugees could be threatened. If Haftar allowed Russian military bases in Libya, Putins strength in Middle East politics would to grow as well.

This sets the scene for a potential clash between the E.U. on one side and Putin and Trump on the other. There are major reasons for Trump to support Haftar over Serraj. Haftar spent 20 years in the U.S., not far from the Central Intelligence Agencys Langley headquarters, working to undermine Gaddafi, his one-time friend and ally. Trump is also highly skeptical of then-Secretary of State Hillary Clintons actions in Libya as the Qaddafi regime disintegrated, and, like Putin, he doesnt believe in imposing democracy on Middle Eastern nations where Islamist groups enjoy popular support.

Moscow likely wouldnt mind testing the opportunities for cooperation with Trump in Libya. On Thursday, the state propaganda agency RIA Novosti published a column by Avigdor Eskin, an Israeli political consultant close to the Russian nationalist right, asserting that the Trump administration had a Libyan plan that might involve Russian cooperation via Haftar. The supposed plan involves building micro-cities rather than refugee camps in Libya, with factories and oil facilities to put them to work.

Though that sounds like wishful thinking, the Kremlin is likely to approach Trump with offers of pacifying Libya and thus weakening the Islamic State. The U.S. wouldnt need to do anything except turn a blind eye to Russian support of Haftar. As in Syria, Putins unique selling proposition is that he is not squeamish when it comes to dealing with strongmen and that, unlike any Western leader, he is unconstrained by the need to seek political support at home: He knows by now how to create it through a powerful propaganda machine. If Trumps isolationist team is willing to cut its risks and outsource part of its promised fight against terrorism to Russia, an understanding on Libya is a possible first step down that road.

Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View columnist

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