Islamic State loses its stronghold in Libya, but more chaos …
CAIRO Libyan militias backed by American airstrikes said they have cleared the stronghold of the Islamic State in Libya, a defeat that would set back the groups ambitions in North Africa. The country, however, remains very unstable amid battles between rival militias, and the remaining militants could still undermine a fragile U.S.-backed unity government, analysts say.
Libyan fighters erupted in celebration in the coastal city of Sirte on Tuesday after a nearly seven-month struggle to oust the Islamic State, as the mostly pro-government forces were searching for any remaining militants.
The Islamic States hopes of extending its self-proclaimed caliphate beyond Syria and Iraq into Libya have been dashed, at least for now. But while their propaganda war and recruiting efforts have also been weakened, analysts said, the group remains active in other parts of the country.
Libya faces the specter of clandestine cells staging terrorist attacks, much like theyve done recently in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan after battlefield reverses in those countries.
The retaking of Sirte is certainly a negative blow to Islamic State affiliates in Libya because they will no longer have a territorial stronghold in the country, said Claudia Gazzini, senior Libya analyst for the International Crisis Group. This is significant because it no longer gives them the possibility to operate in the open or to recruit and levy taxes directly.
Libyan forces backed by U.S. airstrikes finish clearing the last Islamic State holdout in Sirte after a six-month battle for the militant groups former North African stronghold. (Reuters)
Yet despite its demise, Gazzini said, we cannot rule out that the group will carry out attacks in other parts of the country.
[Why its taking so long for the U.S. and its allies to defeat ISIS in Libya]
Libya descended into turmoil following the killing of dictator Moammar Gaddafi in 2011 in the aftermath of the countrys Arab Spring uprising. The oil-producing nation fractured into fiefdoms controlled by competing groups of former rebels. Rival governments were established in the capital, Tripoli, and in the east, with each claiming authority.
In the vacuum, the Islamic State and other extremist groups emerged in Libya. In early 2015, in alliance with other radical factions, the Islamic States affiliate seized parts of Sirte, situated in the heart of Libyas oil crescent. Within months, the militants had tightened their grip on the city and sought to create their own government.
The militants viewed Sirte as a possible fallback capital if their headquarters in the Syrian city of Raqqa fell. Recruits from other parts of Africa and the Middle East as well as within Libya streamed to Sirte, which was where Gaddafi was born.
Operationally, it was an important base and logistics hub for other ISIS fronts in Libya, said Frederic Wehrey, a Middle East analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The fall of Sirte arrives at a tense moment for Libya. Rival militias have been battling for territory and economic gain in recent days in the worst eruption of fighting in the capital in more than a year. Clashes are also underway in Benghazi, Libyas second-largest city, pitting Islamists against forces loyal to Gen. Khalifa Hifter, a powerful commander who recently seized control of key oil terminals, while his rivals were focused on besieging Sirte.
The violence has further challenged the authority of the unity government, which has struggled to exert control since it arrived in Tripoli in March. Those challenges are poised to become even more complicated as the Islamic State plots its next moves and a possible revival.
[Migrant boat traffic from Libya to Europe is surging and turning deadlier]
For it to find a place to govern and rule, it would need to find a locale suffering from marginalization and some sort of tribal or social constituency that would welcome it as well as a preexisting jihadist infrastructure, Wehrey said.
Today, some Islamic State militants are fighting in Benghazi. Analysts say that others who fled Sirte may have relocated to southern Libya, including the city of Sebha. The south offers a haven to regroup, but its remoteness in the Libyan Desert makes it more difficult for it to attract recruits and stage attacks.
There have also been reports of Islamic State activity in western Libya, including in the town of Bani Walid, where sympathetic tribes have provided the militants with safe houses, and in the coastal town of Sabratha, where the Islamic State has strong links to smuggling and other criminal networks.
Its hard to predict whether they still have a leadership capable of thinking up next steps, said Mattia Toaldo, a Libya analyst and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The real question is whether the single jihadists will find a new home in other jihadist groups.
Tripoli could become the militants next target. Violence in the capital would further undermine the governments authority and dissuade foreigners from returning. Tensions are also growing between Islamist militias in the city, and any eruption of fighting could aid Islamic State cells.
Any outright conflict between these groups would certainly throw in disarray what little security there is in Tripoli, and this could open space for radical groups like IS, said Gazzini, referring to the Islamic State.
Even as the unity government seeks to capitalize on the liberation of Sirte and bolster its international legitimacy, many of its supporters are increasingly dissatisfied.
The militias that ousted the Islamic State are mostly from the city of Misurata. Many Misuratans say the recent clashes in Tripoli are an attempt by their rivals to claim the capital.
The Misuratans are not happy with this and might try to mobilize forces to Tripoli in the upcoming weeks, Gazzini said.
Or they could end up fighting Hifters forces, Toaldo said.
The more the instability, the greater the possibility that the Islamic State will regroup and that other extremist groups will form in Libya.
The important thing to underscore is that jihadism and the radical threat in Libya is still very much present, especially given the institutional breakdown of the state, the alienation of vast swaths of youths, marginalized towns and tribes, Wehrey said.
Read more:
As oil output falls, Libya is on the verge of economic collapse
ISIS sends car bombs against U.S.-backed forces advancing on Raqqa
Todays coverage from Post correspondents around the world
Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news
Read the original here:
Islamic State loses its stronghold in Libya, but more chaos ...
- Libya's First Oil Bid Round in 18 Years Offers Production Sharing Contracts - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Dbeibah meets DiCarlo and Tetteh, stresses support for efforts aimed to stop parallel spending - The Libya Observer - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Sarkozy corruption trial wraps up over Libya campaign fund allegations - RFI - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Libyan olive oils win gold in Abu Dhabis 2025 International Afro-Asian Olive Oil Competition - Libya Herald - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- French court to rule in September in Sarkozy Libya funding case - France 24 - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Solution to Libyas economic crisis is not through dinar devaluation but through economic reforms: 55 HoR members - Libya Herald - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- AmCham Libya hosts a U.S. Libya Executive Business Roundtable at the U.S. Chamber offices in Washington DC - Libya Herald - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Eni to invest over 8 billion in Libya over next four years to boost energy production - Libya Herald - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Libya affirms its continued support for the Syrian people and their independence - - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Libya attends security meeting in Italy to address immigration and transnational crimes - The Libya Observer - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Dbeibah participates in ADF, discusses several issues with Erdogan - The Libya Observer - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Resumption of control and monitoring project at Zawiya Oil Refining Company - The Libya Observer - April 12th, 2025 [April 12th, 2025]
- Joint statement by the embassies of France, Italy, Germany, UK and USA on the independence of Libyas Audit Bureau - Libya Herald - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- Iraq and Libya Stress the Need to Unify Efforts to Support Stability and Security in the Region - ina.iq - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- Diversifying Libyas economy: Six opportunities through Three Horizons - Libya Herald - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- LBBC and NOC announce the London Libya Bid Round Roadshow to be held on 7 April - Libya Herald - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- Former UN envoy Stephanie Williams to publish new book on Libyas post-Gaddafi era - The Libya Observer - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- I want to feel the pride of playing for Ghana - Richard Boadu on rejecting Libya nationality switch - GhanaWeb - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- UN raises alarm over wave of 'arbitrary' arrests in Libya - The Times of India - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- MSC announces price increases in shipping from Far East to Libya - Libya Herald - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- Libya, France discuss strengthening bilateral ties and economic cooperation - The Libya Observer - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- Al-Haddad discusses security cooperation with British Military Attach - The Libya Observer - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- Ministry of Health warns of circulation of counterfeit cancer drug in Libya - The Libya Observer - March 26th, 2025 [March 26th, 2025]
- The illicit oil trade that is keeping Libya divided - Financial Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The UN has opened up Libya to foreign meddling and foreign fighters - Middle East Monitor - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, Haiti, Iran, Myanmar, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, and Libya face Australia Do Not Travel Warning: What It Mean for the... - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Libya: Escalating Hate Speech, Xenophobia, and Violence - World Organisation Against Torture - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- South Sudan Joins Yemen, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, Ukraine, Central African Republic, and Haiti on US Do Not Travel List What The New Advisory Means... - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Libya Is the Forgotten Wasteland of the International Order - Democracy for the Arab World Now - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- The UN is responsible for the division in Libya - Atalayar EN - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Economy Minister Hwej says Libyas corruption is exaggerated by the media and those who talk about it are conducting a war against the nation - Libya... - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Libya-China Ties Strengthen as Online Visa Applications Launch for Libyans Starting This March - Travel And Tour World - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- USAID informs partners in North Africa of its withdrawal from all joint projects - The Libya Observer - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Libya denies reports of plans to resettle immigrants within country - Social News XYZ - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Human traffickers seized in two operations south of Kufra - The Libya Observer - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Libya announces first bidding round for oil exploration in 17 years - Reuters - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Russias Libya Push Should Alarm The U.S. And Europe - The National Interest Online - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Around 112 migrants rescued off the coast of Libya reach Tuscany in Central Italy - Euronews - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Flights with Qatar to resume in October - Libya Herald - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- France affirms its support for the SRSG for Libya - France ONU - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- French President Macron receives Haftar in Paris with an eye on eastern Libya - The Arab Weekly - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- UN envoy to Libya: Ramadan is opportunity for reconciliation - The Libya Observer - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- UNICEF Reaffirms its Commitment to Vulnerable Children and Families in Southeastern Libya During Mission to Kufra [EN/AR] - ReliefWeb - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Al-Lafi urges for media cooperation between Africa and Turkey - The Libya Observer - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Bodies of 12 Pakistanis who died when their boat sank off Libya repatriated to Pakistan - Yahoo - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Julyana Free Zone to receive 60 commercial and oil vessels in February 2025 - Libya Herald - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Campaigner for migrants in Libya targeted in spyware attack - The Guardian - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Bodies of migrants recovered in Libya, authorities say - BBC.com - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Two mass graves of migrants uncovered in Libya - UN News - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- 2 mass graves with bodies of nearly 50 migrants found in southeastern Libya - The Associated Press - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Libya: Migrants Face Violence and Exclusion From Healthcare - Genocide Watch - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Libya finds two mass graves with bodies of nearly 50 migrants, refugees - Al Jazeera English - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- At least 16 Pakistani nationals dead and ten missing after migrant boat sinks off Libya - InfoMigrants - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Mass Graves of Migrants Discovered in Libya as Crackdown on Smuggling Intensifies - OCCRP - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- EU EXTERNAL PARTNERS: Egypt urged to stop abusing people on the move Two mass graves uncovered in Libya Tunisian authorities accused of state... - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Mass graves holding bodies of migrants discovered in Libya - Semafor - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Bodies of migrants recovered in southeast Libya, attorney general says - Reuters.com - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Bodies of dozens of migrants found in two mass graves in Libya - Euronews - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Pakistan's PM grieves over deaths of migrants from his country in a boat sinking near Libya - ABC News - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Libya 8th most corrupt state in the world according to the latest index for 2024 - Libya Herald - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- 12 youth hostels inaugurated as part of GNU's "Return of Life" project - The Libya Observer - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Moscow denies bombing sites in southern Libya - The Libya Observer - February 16th, 2025 [February 16th, 2025]
- Crossings at Libyan Tunisian Wazin Dehiba land border up to 1.1 million in 2024 - Libya Herald - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Indian embassy in Libya facilitates return of 18 Indian nationals - The Tribune India - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Libya: Almost 30 migrant bodies retrieved in one day - InfoMigrants - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Italy justice minister defends decision to release alleged war criminal to Libya - JURIST - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Libya and Morocco sign MoU on fisheries and aquaculture - Libya Herald - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Libya prepares 4,000 tons of aid to ship to Gaza - Yahoo! Voices - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- The Ministry of Economy hosts a workshop on the General Framework of Green Investment in Libya - Libya Herald - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Brega imports large quantities of domestic gas cylinders - being distributed in time for Ramadan - Libya Herald - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- Bodies of 29 migrants recovered in Libya - The National - February 7th, 2025 [February 7th, 2025]
- At Sarkozy's trial, the improbable story of Bashir Saleh's exfiltration from Libya - Le Monde - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- UNSMIL says Advisory Committee is neither decision-making nor dialogue body - The Libya Observer - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- CBL, HoR discuss 2025 budget, spending controls - The Libya Observer - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Finlands Ambassador to Libya seeks stronger cooperation and investment opportunities - The Libya Observer - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Critic of Italy-Libya migration pact told he was target of Israeli spyware - The Guardian - February 3rd, 2025 [February 3rd, 2025]
- After more than ten years, Libya settles debts and recovers ships from Malta - Libya Herald - February 3rd, 2025 [February 3rd, 2025]
- Presidency Council head Menfi calls for referendum by Libyan people on contentious points of draft constitution - Libya Herald - February 3rd, 2025 [February 3rd, 2025]
- Foreign Minister in Tunisia to discuss strengthening economic partnership - The Libya Observer - February 3rd, 2025 [February 3rd, 2025]
- Libya to host window 2 qualifiers of AfroBasket 2025 - The Libya Observer - February 3rd, 2025 [February 3rd, 2025]