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Wed, Nov 20, 2019

MENASourcebyKarim Mezran

People queue to sign up at a bank for a $500 annual allowance that provides a lifeline for many Libyan families struggling to make ends meet in Tripoli, Libya October 17, 2019. Picture taken October 17, 2019. REUTERS/Ismail Zitouny

On September 11, 2019, Germanysambassador to Tripoli announcedthat in October or November, Berlin would host a conference on Libya to try tostabilize the situation in the country and bring relief to a population deeply affectedby the military action of field marshal Khalifa Haftar.

This past spring, Haftar, launchedan attack on the capital Tripoli with the Libyan National Army (LNA) under thepretext of freeing it from terrorists. This conference would be organized incollaboration with the United Nations Special Envoy for Libya, Ghassan Salam.He seems to believe that Germany could represent a neutral actor among the foreignactors intervention; who are seeking resources and international prestige onLibyan soil for years. But looking at recent history, there are severalcriticisms that this is not the best approach. In recent years, conferences onLibya held in other countries with extremely limited local representation havedone nothing but exacerbate tensions and make the situation worse.

French PresidentEmmanuel Macron has tried to create a new order in Libya, sponsoring manydiplomaticunofficial and officialengagements. He hosted two conferences inParis, the firston July 25, 2017 between Prime Minister Fayezal-Sarraj and Marshal Khalifa Haftar. A ceasefire was agreed upon, andelections were promised to be held as soon as possible. A second eventtook place in Paris on May 29, 2018, with the proposal of scheduling election dayon December 10 of that year.

In response, Italyunderthe initiative of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conteorganized another conferencein Palermo on November 13-14, 2018. Then, in February 2019, another conferenceheld in Abu Dhabi produced an agreement to hold elections. None of these agreementsor proposals were realized. Instead, everyone in Libya seemed to be completelyunsatisfied: the militia leaders excluded from the negotiating table fought inthe capital between August and September 2018; Haftar started a new war inApril 2019 against the same militias in Tripoli; Sarraj felt profoundlydisappointed by his antagonist refusing to sit at the same table. Those mostimpacted by the failed negotiations are the Libyan people who cannot find the necessarystability to begin to rebuild their country. These international conferences didnot bring about any effective resolutions of the conflict, creating onlydisappointment among the citizens.

There is however, a different type ofmeeting that is much more productive. On December 6-8, 2017 the Swiss Centerfor Humanitarian Dialogue (HD) succeeded in organizing a meetingof Libyan mayors in Tunisia. For the firsttime since the conflict began, almost all Libyan municipalities and localauthorities gathered to discuss how to end the ongoing violence in theircountry. This important eventsaw the active presence of the UN representative Ghassan Salam. The meeting wasa success and built an important foundation for a potential National Conference,which should have included the main representatives of Libyas three regions:Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan.

Municipalities continuedto walk on this path, with a seriesof gatherings at the beginning of 2018 not only in Tunis, but also inShahat in January and Tripoliin March. Around 107 local leaders, including those coming from Libyas eastattended the meetings. Local leaders asked for the non-intervention of foreignactors: they wanted to be left alone in trying to rebuild their own country.

Local leaders asked for the non-intervention of foreign actors: they wanted to be left alone in trying to rebuild their own country.

Municipalities in most of Libyaexcept forthose in the eastern province where mayors and city councils have been replacedby military governments per Haftars ordershave resisted the ongoing violence overthe years and proved to be key institutions of the country. For this reason they must be reinforced.

Given the success of theHD initiative, Mr. Salam, at the beginning of 2018, asked HD to manage thepreparatory process for the National Conference, one of the foundations of theUN Action Plan for Libya. With that target, the HD opened up consultations,which were attended in forty-three locations by more than 7,000 Libyans.

It is important toremember the basis for Germanys proposal for a new international conference,lies in the strong relationship Berlin has with Turkey and Egypt that must notbe undervalued, given the fact that these two nations are each supporting Sarrajand Haftar respectively.

In the meantime, a LibyaLocal Governance Forum was held on September 14-16 in Tunis in order to improvea strategic approach to localism. The event was supported by USAID, the World Bank,and UNDP Libya. The media did not talk extensively about it, but it would beinteresting to understand how many local administrators were present and fromwhich region of Libya.

As many scholars andspecialists on Libya agreed a few months ago in a Brookingsreport on Libya, the model implemented in the country should be created byand for Libyans, building the state from the grassroots up, rather thantop down. In this context, there is no place for external intrusion norfor conferences that do not have the full participation of the Libyans ofTripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan. Mr. Salam remainsoptimistic about the forthcoming Berlin conference despite an escalation inaerial fighting in Libya, but it is necessary toremember that conferences cannot be held without those who actually have a roleand a stake at the local level. A simple theorem, but evidently very difficultto put into practice.

Karim Mezran is a resident seniorfellow at the Atlantic Councils Middle East programs.

Federica Saini Fasanotti is a nonresident senior fellow in theCenter for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, of theForeign Policyprogram at The Brookings Institution.

Thu, Sep 19, 2019

One of the unfortunate consequences of Libyas crisis is that the main players with decision-making power in Libyas conflict are the regional and international powers involved in the crisis.

MENASourcebyKarim Mezran

Wed, Nov 7, 2018

The approachingconference on Libyan stabilization hosted by Italywhich will be held on November 12 and 13 in Palermowill bring together the main Libyan leaders, with the purpose of defining their respective negotiation platforms in advance. Italy must not only navigate the components of Libyas heterogeneous and conflicting political landscape, but also host the most relevant regional and global actors.

MENASourcebyNicola Pedde

Fri, May 31, 2019

The forces of Libyas rebel army officer Khalifa Haftar are on the outskirts of Tripoli, the capital of Libya, in his ongoing bid to claim the city. Some of his forces traveled more than 1,000 kilometers from Libyas eastern towns where Haftar has his stronghold.

MENASourcebyBorzou Daragahi

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Another conference, another incomplete solution for Libya - Atlantic Council