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Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers Union and a regular opinion contributor to Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective.

OPINION: The Prime Minister can shuffle her front bench, sack a few lame ducks and shovel even more responsibility onto her few capable ministers. It will not work.

Her administration is caught in a death-spiral from which there is no return, and from which there will be no respite.

This government is done. Their poll numbers are buoyant but, as we have been taught many times in recent years, polls are misleading and unreliable.

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The one thing a poll can tell you with certainty is the trend; and the trend is clear. The electorate has tired of this government, or, perhaps, they have simply tired of its leader.

Ardern is trapped by her past success, and her past mistakes. She has one achievement: Covid.

Everything else has been a failure or of no enduring electoral weight, and more concerning for the ninth floor, she appears to be losing control of her own party.

She can sack Poto Williams, but she lacks the mana to fire Nanaia Mahuta, a much larger electoral liability but with a lot more political oomph.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Damien Grant sees Nanaia Mahuta as an electoral liability for Jacinda Ardern, but the strength of the Mori caucus offers Mahuta protection.

The Prime Minister is unwilling or, more likely, unable to stand up to the Mori caucus, whose demands on issues like co-governance is proving a marketing bonanza to the Taxpayers Union, whose Three Waters rural road-show is playing to packed halls.

Defenders of Ardern will point to her outstanding performance in the aftermath of the Christchurch terror attack and the response to White Island, and in moments of crisis this Prime Minister has no equal. It is difficult to envision Luxon acting with such pathos or empathy.

Yet none of it matters. Even the Covid response is looking tattered in retrospect, with the missteps of not ordering stock in time, border failures, and the public relations disaster of how the parliamentary lawn protest was handled.

Within the political right, there is a belief that they are now a government in waiting. Christopher Luxon is confident. David Seymour is fizzing in anticipation. Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis, Brooke van Velden and even Todd Muller are waiting to get their mittens onto the levers of state.

Chris McKeen/Stuff

Christopher Luxon is talking the talk, but it may be what he hasnt said or done which will really count come the next election.

The mood of the boardroom, at least from my anecdotal encounters, is an expectation, even anticipation, that the irresponsible and unresponsive Ardern ministry will soon be swept away.

Well. Maybe.

Elections are tricky things. Favourites do not always win, and we should never underestimate the power of office, nor the ferocity of an incumbent with her back to the wall and everything to play for.

Few electoral certainties are more famous than Thomas E Dewey, the clean-cut Republican with the Freddie Mercury moustache, pegged to defeat incumbent Harry S Truman in the 1948 presidential election.

Deweys defeat is notable because it was unexpected, but it is also relevant because he was the front-runner and took the path often favoured by front-runners play it safe.

Brook Mitchell/Getty Images

Scott Morrison surprised everyone with his come-from-behind victory in Australias 2019 election. He is pictured with his family on that election night.

He ran a campaign so bland that one paper mocked that he had four stump speeches that could be summarised as: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead.

Across the Tasman we saw a similar result in 2019, when the unpopular Liberal administration headed by Scott Morrison held onto power against predictions of certain defeat.

Morrison had been consistently behind in the polls, but when the time came to vote for change, many Australians mysteriously decided not to.

Labour leader Bill Shorten ran a risk-adverse campaign, avoiding big commitments, that was later de-constructed by his party as lacking a political strategy and with a cluttered policy agenda.

Perhaps the most relevant upset, when looking at our upcoming election, is the 1992 election in the United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

John Major may not have been Britains highest performing prime minister, but he still managed to win when it mattered.

John Major was the dour and unimpressive successor to Margaret Thatcher, whose government was grappling with falling house prices, 10% interest rates, rising unemployment and dismal polling. Yet his Conservatives snatched a remarkable win against the run of play.

Voters, it has been claimed, simply didnt find opposition leader Neil Kinnock convincing, and the Tories were successful in painting Labour as lacking fiscal responsibility.

Opinion polls are like by-elections and high-school sweethearts an opportunity to experiment without having to make a serious commitment. What matters is what voters will do once in the cardboard confines of a polling booth.

National is too confident. They are standing at the edge of the dance, waiting for the voter to tire of their current partner rather than seeking to cut in. It is significant that the Taxpayers Union, and not the National Party, is holding rallies against Three Waters.

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The Prime Minister enjoys a moment Chris Luxon is unlikely to ever have, getting US airtime with Stephen Colbert.

For all her failings, Ardern retains enormous respect and, in some quarters, genuine affection. Many voters secretly quite like the fact that our Prime Minister is feted on the global stage.

Chris Luxon isnt a celebrity. He will not be invited to meet Stephen Colbert. Anthony Albanese will not give him a hug. Ardern has a cachet he lacks and, maybe, voters will pause before letting her go.

And here is the real challenge for National. Economic uncertainty has fallen over the country like a hoar frost, and if this uncertainty is matched with a savage downturn, two things will come into play.

First, if it is a global meltdown, Ardern and Grant Robertson will not be held responsible, any more than they were held responsible for Covid.

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Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers' Union and a regular opinion contributor for Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective.

Second, who are voters going to trust more to look after them: the empathetic Ardern and her big-spending, fiscally irresponsible Robertson, or the former airline executive?

Luxon hasnt made it clear what National would do if elected, other than a few populist policies. He is playing it safe.

Because they have not defined themselves, National and its leader is providing the Government the opportunity to do it for them, which partly explains why we are seeing Labour running negative attacks on Luxon.

It would take a massive effort for National to lose the next election, against an unpopular administration which has lost its mandate and credibility. They seem up for that challenge.

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The Ardern Government is in a death spiral with no hope... or is it? - Stuff