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With Republican and Democratic voters rallying around their partys respective presidential candidates ahead of the November election, the chancesofa victoryfor the Libertarian Party lookbleak. While the Libertarian Party may not be successful this fall, writeOlivier LewisandJeffrey Michels, former Republican JustinAmashsrecent short-lived candidacy for the party may point to alonger termrealignmentfor Republican voterswho seekless government involvement in their lives.

After a12-hour-longnominatingconventionon May 22-23,the first held in cyberspace, the Libertarian Partyselectedpsychology lecturerDrJo Jorgensenasitscandidate for President of the United States.Followinganights rest, thedelegatesreturned totheir computers to selectself-proclaimed anarchistSpike Cohen astheirVice-Presidentialcandidate. The delegatesstamina wasimpressive, especiallyconsidering the fact thattheir ticket has virtually no chance of winning the presidential elections in November.

Theobstaclesare even greaterinthis extraordinary election year.Some of this is inherent to the race itself.Agrowingnumberof Republican voters have a favourable view of President Donald Trump, and avast majorityof Democrats have a favourable opinion of former Vice-President Joe Biden. Unlike in 2016, this yearsthird-party candidateswill receive few protest votes; the Republican and Democratic candidates are simply too appealing to their respective party faithful.

MeanwhiletheCOVID-19pandemic hasfurthercomplicated the prospects for third parties.With many states under lockdown and social distancing customary throughout the country,third partiesare unable tocollectthe signatures necessarytoget their candidates names on state ballots the Libertarian Party stoppedpetitioningon March 7th.These partieswill needtoturn to the courts, in the hope of liftingsignature requirements. The Green and Libertarian parties didsowithsuccessin Illinois.

Themanysocial consequencesof the health crisis willmostlikelylimitsupport for third party campaigns. Due toCOVID-19,theUS population is, to a historic extent,politicallypolarized,prone to saving,jobless,andhungry.As a result,theelectoratelacksthepatienceand resourcesto back outsidercampaignswith little prospectfor success.These are likely the circumstances that the ex-Republican congressman from Michigan, Rep. JustinAmash,had in mindwhen heannounced on Twitteron May 16ththat he wasfoldinghis exploratory committee to seek the Libertarian Partys presidential nomination.

While the immediateclimatemay be harsh foranoutside challenge to the current bipartisanconstellation, this mayslowlychange.As wewrote earlier this month,Amashsshort-livedcandidacyrevealsasmallbut meaningful riftwithin the Republican Party, whosesupport of President Trump has often overruled itscommitment to libertarian ideals. Questions surrounding the role of government inpublic andprivate life canlead tosignificantconflict amidst Republicans, especially as the party decideswhether to follow the course Trump laid out during his presidency.

The COVID-19 pandemicis likely toexacerbate thisriftin the longer term.Crisis measures undertaken bygovernmentsworldwidehavereinforced and accelerated ashift away from libertarian values:the trend is towards lessmigrationand freetrade,and morecapital controls,state aidandpublic debt.In the US, wecan already seeolddebatesre-emergeregarding threats topersonallibertiesandexcessive government intervention, and this, most of all, inconservativeAmericanmedia. Michael Dougherty of theNational Reviewsummarises this as a debate betweennational autonomy and individual autonomy.Jack Butler,also writing for theReview,boils it downto blue-collar versus white-collar.Can these tensions be reconciled within the Republican Party?A historic pandemic has led to a historic recession,which has led to a historical governmental response. It is only logical that the political repercussions will be historictoo,though they may take an election cycleto be felt.

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Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.

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About the authors

Olivier Lewis College of EuropeOlivier has been a Research Fellow at the College of Europe,Natolincampus, since August 2019. Olivier is currently writing his first book,Security Cooperation between Western States, to be published with Routledge. He is also working on shorter publications related to counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and Brexit.

Jeffrey Michels College of EuropeJeffrey Michels is a Parliamentary Assistant at the European Parliament and an Academic Assistant forthe European Interdisciplinary Studies Department at the College of Europe.

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Justin Amash's presidential bid shows that some Republicans' future may be with the Libertarian Party. - USAPP American Politics and Policy (blog)