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The Trudeau Liberals are surging ahead of the Conservatives, with the governing party widening its lead as the national immunization campaign picks up, according to a new Abacus Data survey released Thursday.

The survey shared exclusively with The Hill Times suggested that 38 per cent of Canadians would back the Liberals, if an election were held now, enough to put them over the seats needed to recoup its majority status in Parliament, compared to 30 per cent who would tick off Conservative on the ballot. Thats up five points compared to the week before and the largest lead the Liberals have had over the official opposition since October 2020, according to the polling firms tracking data. The NDP, meanwhile, was at 17 per cent, down by two percentage points, while the Greens were at six per cent (also down by two).

It also suggested that the political conditions in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec were favourable to the Liberals, with the governing party holding a 16-point lead in the former at 44 per cent, while it has a seven-point advantage over the Bloc Qubcois in the latter province at 37 per cent. Unsurprisingly, the Conservatives continued to enjoy the strongest support in the Prairies at around 50 per cent.

I think people are more optimistic about the vaccines, and when theyre going to be able to get one, said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, in a phone interview. We even see far more people think theyre going to get it by June than did even a few weeks ago. So that explains some of the improvement that the Liberals have seen and their vote.

Canada is on pace to receive at least 44 million COVID-19 vaccines doses by June, barring potential interruptions in deliveries. And while the Trudeau government is upbeat that the flow of vaccine deliveries will continue to ramp up, public health authorities have warned that Canada is in the midst of a race to vaccinate Canadians against the more contagious variants of concerns. The government has indicated Canadians eligible for the shot can expect to be fully vaccinated by the end of the summer.

At the same time, Mr. Coletto noted, with politics being about alternatives, the boost could also be linked to voters not being as enthusiastic about the Conservatives new leader.

Erin OToole has had a tough few weeks, coming out of a convention that should have given him a nice bounce and focus, he said.

Mr. OTooles (Durham, Ont.) ongoing push to cast his party as open to change and welcoming of left-leaning voters hit a snag at its policy convention after grassroots members voted down a proposal that included a recognition that climate change is real. Climate change, in the 2019 election, was consistently ranked among the top priorities driving voters considerations at the ballot box.

The Liberals lift didnt directly come at the expense of the Conservatives, whose support didnt shrink from the week before, but Abacus survey suggested that some voters perceptions of Mr. OToole have soured. In gauging respondents impressions of him, the survey suggested his popularity has dipped among left-leaning voters who may have been open to backing his party, along with those who occupy the centre and the right, since he won the leadership race last August.

The survey suggested that Mr. OToole only enjoyed a positive impression among 19 per cent of respondents, and that he registered the lowest rating since it started tracking his popularity. The biggest dips registered were among those who identify as left leaning (a drop of 15 points), compared to those at the centre (11 points) and on the right (14 points).

Thats the signal that something happened in between the two weeks of our survey that caused some people to say, Well, I liked him last week, but I dont really like this week, he said.

Mr. Coletto drew a direct link between the defeat of the proposal and the dip in his popularity as a likely explanation for the change. Its defeat suggested that Mr. OToole still has a ways to go in convincing some conservatives the party needs to be more aligned with the broader public on climate change.

Experience over the years shows that the voters tend to not like, or find appeal with, the leader and a party that doesnt seem united internally, he said. Its almost like Canadians are saying, Get your own house in order, before you ask us to give you the keys to the country.

Mr. Trudeau fared better on this metric as well. The prime minister had 39 per cent of respondents indicating they had a positive impression of him.

Pollster David Coletto says the Liberals lift didnt come directly at the expense of the Conservatives. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

The survey of 2,000 Canadians was conducted between March 25 and 30, amid growing concerns that Canada is already in, or at the brink of, a third wave of the pandemic.

Though the poll suggested that Liberals were the clear favourites to preside over a majority, the temptation of provoking parties into triggering an election may be dampened by concerns about the spread of more contagious, deadlier variants, which have been steadily driving up infection rates and ICU admissions of late.

Those concerns, the survey suggested, have gained resonance with the public; around 34 per cent, or one-in-three respondents, said theyve become more worried about the pandemic.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) has repeatedly brushed off suggestions that his party is eager to send voters to the polls in the spring, arguing that his focus is on ushering the vaccination campaign along. He told former CBC host Peter Mansbridge last week that the government already has a mandate to push forward with its upcoming budget and doesnt need to call an election.

If those favourable numbers for the Liberals continue to hold, the anticipated third wave is brought under control, and vaccinations continue uninterrupted over the weeks ahead, Mr. Coletto said there could be an opening for them to push for an election in May, perhaps not long after the budget is released. (The budget is expected April 19.)

It all depends on how bad this third wave really gets. And early indications are, its gonna get pretty bad, he added.

Mr. Coletto noted his polling firm has begun tracking voters enthusiasm for change since the last campaign. The data suggested that anger directed at the prime minister has subsided, he added, which means that it will be harder for opposition parties to mobilize and animate supporters.

In the 2019 election, Mr. Trudeau took a beating over a series of unforced errors, including his handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair and accusations that he interfered in that fraud and corruption case against the Quebec-based company to protect his political interests.

This appears to be an electorate that is going to be far more interested in hearing about what people are going to do, as opposed to attacking the incumbent for what they did, he said. And, I think, the pandemic has played a big part in that.

British Columbias political landscape appeared to be more competitive. The Liberals, Conservatives, and the NDP were locked in a three-way race, with support for each hovering between 28 and 31 per cent.

With 338 seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals need to win at least 170 seats in the next election for a majority. It won 157 in 2019, and currently controls 154, while the Conservatives have 120. The balance of power has shifted between the Bloc Qubcois, which commands 32 seats, and the NDP, which has 24.

The Hill Times

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Trudeau Liberals surge ahead over Conservatives, as O'Toole's favourability dips across the spectrum, poll suggests - The Hill Times