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A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have jumped four percentage points ahead of Liberals as Canadians weigh consistency against the prospect of change in the lead-up to the next election.

And while that may not seem like much of a lead, Ipsos Reid senior vice-president John Wright says those numbers could put Tories close to majority government territory.

According to the Ipsos survey for Global News, released Thursday, Tories sit at 35 per cent support nationally a jump of two percentage points since December. Justin Trudeaus Liberals are at 31 per cent, down three points from last month. In September, Ipsos numbers gave Liberals a seven-point lead.

Thomas Mulcair's New Democrats are stuck in third at 24 per cent, virtually unchanged from last month but seven points lower than where the party stood during its surge in the 2011 federal election.

Elizabeth Mays Greens are at four per cent support, Mario Beaulieus Bloc Quebecois are at six per cent support (but 25 per cent support in Quebec), while 17 per cent of respondents told the firm they are undecided.

The numbers show Conservatives have broken a tie in vote-rich Ontario and are now leading Liberals by seven percentage points, 41 per cent to 34 per cent. The NDP is at 21 per cent in Canadas most populous province.

The survey also pegs Harpers personal approval rating at 49 per cent the highest it has been since 2012.

The poll was conducted online between January 6 and 11, among a sample of 1,915 Canadians. It is considered accurate to within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Wright told The Huffington Post Canada Friday that if the Tories have a four-point lead, theyre in really good shape.

For starters, Wright points to the fact that there will be new riding boundaries and 30 more seats at play in the next election to reflect population changes. Fifteen of those seats will be in Ontario, six each in Alberta and British Columbia and three in Quebec.

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Tories Lead Liberals, Could Be Headed For Majority Territory: Poll